Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CON at POR?

The model favors POR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+10POR

CON

1-8

6171

POR

5-3

WNBAWed, May 27FinalSeriesPOR wins series 2-1VegasPOR -7.5

CON · top performer

Aneesah Morrow

F · #24

9.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

POR · top performer

Carla Leite

G · #0

12.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCON ↔ POR

Biggest swing: 18pp · 3rd Quarter · 3:38

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. EdwardsF · #8	5	0	—	—	0-2	-7	2	0
D. MillerF · #1	20	5	2-6	0-2	1-2	-9	0	1
A. MorrowF · #24	29	13	6-19	1-7	—	-6	13	1
S. RiversG · #22	23	7	3-11	0-3	1-2	-10	1	2
C. Leger-WalkerG · #4	27	11	3-7	0-3	5-9	-14	2	3
Bench
R. BeersF · #15	14	4	2-2	—	—	-6	4	2
N. AnglomaF · #33	4	0	—	—	—	+1	0	0
O. Nelson-OdodaC · #10	21	4	2-3	—	0-2	+3	4	4
K. BurkeG · #25	18	6	2-5	0-1	2-2	0	2	1
H. Van LithG · #2	13	7	3-5	0-2	1-1	+4	2	0
G. KneepkensG · #5	9	4	1-2	0-1	2-2	-2	1	0
A. JacksonG · #3	17	0	0-2	0-2	—	-4	2	3
Team		61	24-62	1-21	12-22		33	17
DNP: B. Griner

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. CarletonF · #6	29	13	5-10	2-5	1-1	0	7	3
E. EngstlerF · #21	19	4	2-5	0-3	—	-7	1	2
N. PuochF · #13	18	2	1-3	0-2	0-4	-5	0	0
L. GeiselsoderC · #15	19	3	1-4	1-3	—	-4	1	2
C. LeiteG · #0	23	20	4-10	2-3	10-10	-1	0	3
Bench
F. BuhnerF · #20	13	9	4-5	1-1	—	+13	1	0
GustafsonC · #17	18	10	3-6	1-2	3-4	+15	4	2
S. WilliamsC · #25	11	1	—	—	1-2	+3	1	0
K. SamuelsonG · #44	12	0	0-2	0-2	—	+6	0	1
S. BarkerG · #3	22	4	2-4	0-1	—	+19	11	1
T. OblakG · #7	17	5	2-3	—	1-3	+11	0	2
Team		71	24-52	7-22	16-24		26	16
DNP: H. Winterburn

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CON

Away

Stat

POR

Home

24-62

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

24-52

FG %

1-21

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

7-22

12-22

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

16-24

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

POR wins series 2-1

May 19

CON82@

POR83

May 28

CON61@

POR71today

Jul 14

POR87@

CON90

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

POR -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

1.0pt· 6.3h

Total

166.5

Standard · +1.5 vs avg

2.0pt· 6.3h

Moneyline

CON+22031%

POR-27073%

45· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet POR -7.5↗SpreadBet POR -7.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

+1.0 since open

Total

166.5

-2.0 since open

How it ended

POR beat CON 71-61. C. Leite led with 20 PTS, 0 REB, 3 AST. CON outscored the other side 23-13 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

POR vs CON

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CONstarters 59% of pts

Starters(5)

36 PTS · 18 REB · 7 AST

GS 15

Bench(7)

25 PTS · 15 REB · 10 AST

GS 22

PORstarters 59% of pts

Starters(5)

42 PTS · 9 REB · 10 AST

GS 26

Bench(6)

29 PTS · 17 REB · 6 AST

GS 22

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

POR3rd Quarter · 3:38 · 44-45

+18pp→ 58% WP

Sarah Ashlee Barker · out of bounds lost ball turnover

POR4th Quarter · 6:32 · 55-52

+14pp→ 31% WP

Teja Oblak · makes driving layup

POR4th Quarter · 4:25 · 55-58

+15pp→ 73% WP

Frieda Buhner · makes 4-foot layup (Teja Oblak assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CON	16	11	23	11	61
POR	17	20	13	21	71

Period scoring

CON won 1 · POR won 3

Morrow 6

Leite 5

Rivers 3

Carleton 7

Leger-Walker 6

Leite 4

Lith 3

Buhner 7

CON

POR

Shooting comparison

CON

POR

39%

24-62

46%

24-52

1-21

3PT

32%

7-22

55%

12-22

67%

16-24

Play-by-play · 420 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CON 61·POR 71
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CON 61·POR 71
Q4·0.9
shot clock turnover
CON 61·POR 71
Q4·24.0
Sarah Ashlee Barker defensive rebound
CON 61·POR 71
Q4·27.0
Aneesah Morrow misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
CON 61·POR 71
Q4·33.8
Sun Full timeout
CON 61·POR 71
Q4·33.8
Megan Gustafson makes free throw 2 of 2
CON 61·POR 71
Q4·33.8
Fire offensive team rebound
CON 61·POR 70
Q4·33.8
Megan Gustafson misses free throw 1 of 2
CON 61·POR 70
Q4·33.8
Aneesah Morrow personal foul
CON 61·POR 70
Q4·39.9
Sarah Ashlee Barker defensive rebound
CON 61·POR 70
Q4·43.4
Aneesah Morrow misses 25-foot three point jumper
CON 61·POR 70
+0.5pp
Q4·54.0
Carla Leite makes free throw 2 of 2
CON 61·POR 70
Q4·54.0
Carla Leite makes free throw 1 of 2
CON 61·POR 69
Q4·54.0
Diamond Miller shooting foul
CON 61·POR 68
Q4·59.9
Fire timeout
CON 61·POR 68
+1pp
Q4·59.9
Charlisse Leger-Walker makes free throw 3 of 3
CON 61·POR 68
+2pp
Q4·59.9
Charlisse Leger-Walker makes free throw 2 of 3
CON 60·POR 68
−1pp
Q4·59.9
Charlisse Leger-Walker makes free throw 1 of 3
CON 59·POR 68
−2pp
Q4·59.9
(00:59.9) [Sun] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL STANDS)
CON 58·POR 68
+1pp
Q4·59.9
Carla Leite shooting foul
CON 58·POR 68
−1pp
Q4·1:04
Sun offensive team rebound
CON 58·POR 68
Q4·1:05
Diamond Miller misses free throw 2 of 2
CON 58·POR 68
+0.8pp
Q4·1:05
Diamond Miller makes free throw 1 of 2
CON 58·POR 68
Q4·1:05
Sarah Ashlee Barker shooting foul
CON 57·POR 68
−0.6pp
Q4·1:08
Sun timeout
CON 57·POR 68
Q4·1:08
Carla Leite makes free throw 2 of 2
CON 57·POR 68
Q4·1:08
Carla Leite makes free throw 1 of 2
CON 57·POR 67
Q4·1:08
Diamond Miller personal foul
CON 57·POR 66
Q4·1:18
Aneesah Morrow out of bounds lost ball turnover
CON 57·POR 66
+0.8pp

Betting line

POR -7.5·O/U 166.5·CON +220/POR -270

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

ortland Fire held off Connecticut Sun, 71–61.

POR -7.5 cashed (won by 10). Total stayed UNDER 166.5 by 34.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

CON

POR

eFG%

shooting

39.5%

52.9%

TOV%

ball control

19.2%

23.3%

OREB%

offensive glass

41.2%

24.0%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

19.4%

30.8%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Aneesah MorrowCON · F
DRB%.37599+
Megan DiLeoPOR · C
TS%.67497
Carla LeitePOR · G
USG%.28893
Nyadiew PuochPOR · F
ORB%.07482
Emily EngstlerPOR · F
DRB%.20780

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

83.6%

ensemble · POR favored

Elo Static
84.2%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
87.2%
P(POR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
83.9%
P(POR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.50 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+4.12

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-185

Close price

-225

Open no-vig

62.2%

Close no-vig

66.4%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CON at POR?: The model favors POR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+12.5pp

best edge · POR · DraftKings

CON

no live price

POR

★ best

-270DraftKings

edge +12.5pp · implied 70.0%

Book	CON	POR	Best edge
DraftKings	+220	-270★	+12.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

POR vs CON.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

140

projections · 100 high confidence

Points

Carla LeitePOR
16.3± 6.3high
Brittney GrinerCON
14.5± 7.5medium
Megan DiLeoPOR
14.2± 4.6high

Rebounds

Aneesah MorrowCON
8.6± 5.4high
Olivia Nelson-OdodaCON
6.4± 2.9high
Emily EngstlerPOR
6.3± 3.3high

Assists

Carla LeitePOR
6.2± 2.8high
Leila LacanCON
4.5± 1.6medium
Charlisse Leger-WalkerCON
4.2± 2.3high

Blocks

Brittney GrinerCON
1.8± 1.0medium
Emily EngstlerPOR
1.3± 1.0high
Olivia Nelson-OdodaCON
1.1± 1.2high

Steals

Leila LacanCON
2.1± 1.7medium
Bridget CarletonPOR
1.7± 1.1high
Emily EngstlerPOR
1.7± 0.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Connecticut SunPortland Fire

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop