Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at SEA?

The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+14WSH

WSH

3-3

7864

SEA

3-5

WNBAWed, May 27FinalSeriesWSH wins series 2-1VegasWSH -3.5

WSH · top performer

Shakira Austin

C · #0

18.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SEA · top performer

Jade Melbourne

G · #5

14.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowWSH ↔ SEA

Biggest swing: 5pp · 1st Quarter · 6:21

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. OnyenwereF · #12	22	14	5-10	3-7	1-2	+2	2	2
K. IriafenF · #44	24	13	5-7	0-1	3-3	+15	9	0
S. AustinC · #0	29	18	6-13	1-2	5-5	+10	13	5
S. CitronG · #22	30	7	3-12	1-2	—	+14	4	3
G. AmooreG · #8	27	7	2-3	1-1	2-2	+7	0	2
Bench
A. DugalicF · #32	16	2	1-6	0-3	—	-1	3	2
L. BettsC · #51	11	6	1-2	—	4-4	+4	3	0
C. McMahonG · #23	8	0	0-1	0-1	—	+7	0	2
C. ProsperG · #18	10	2	1-3	0-1	—	+5	1	0
A. FlorezG · #2	23	9	4-9	1-3	—	+7	5	3
Team		78	28-66	7-21	15-16		40	19
DNP: R. Harmon, L. Olsen, A. Wilson

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. HorstonF · #23	19	4	1-5	0-1	2-2	-8	5	3
S. DolsonC · #31	20	0	0-3	0-2	—	-20	3	1
N. HiedemanG · #2	28	8	2-9	1-5	3-3	-14	2	1
F. JohnsonG · #4	29	8	3-13	0-4	2-2	-11	2	2
J. MelbourneG · #5	23	15	6-8	—	3-4	+5	3	3
Bench
K. SamuelsonF · #33	15	8	2-3	1-2	3-4	-7	1	0
M. HolmesF · #54	20	8	3-4	2-2	—	+6	10	1
A. FamC · #11	17	6	2-5	0-1	2-4	-2	5	0
L. BrownG · #8	11	3	1-3	1-3	—	-7	0	1
Z. CookeG · #7	18	4	2-10	0-3	—	-12	0	2
Team		64	22-63	5-23	15-19		31	14
DNP: J. Holmes, E. Magbegor, D. Malonga

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

28-66

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

22-63

FG %

7-21

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

5-23

15-16

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-19

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

WSH wins series 2-1

May 24

WSH85@

SEA97

May 28

WSH78@

SEA64today

Jul 12

SEA79@

WSH84

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

WSH -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

160.5

Standard · -4.5 vs avg

2.0pt· 6.3h

Moneyline

WSH-16262%

SEA+13642%

6· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet WSH -3.5↗SpreadBet WSH -3.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

160.5

+1.0 since open

How it ended

WSH beat SEA 78-64. S. Austin led with 18 PTS, 13 REB, 5 AST. WSH outscored the other side 20-9 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SEA vs WSH

Starters vs bench

production by unit

WSHstarters 76% of pts

Starters(5)

59 PTS · 28 REB · 12 AST

GS 45

Bench(5)

19 PTS · 12 REB · 7 AST

GS 13

SEAstarters 55% of pts

Starters(5)

35 PTS · 15 REB · 10 AST

GS 22

Bench(5)

29 PTS · 16 REB · 4 AST

GS 19

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
WSH	28	20	18	12	78
SEA	20	9	16	19	64

Period scoring

WSH won 3 · SEA won 1

Onyenwere 11

Hiedeman 4

Iriafen 6

Brown 3

Citron 7

Melbourne 8

Betts 6

Johnson 6

WSH

SEA

Shooting comparison

WSH

SEA

42%

28-66

35%

22-63

33%

7-21

3PT

22%

5-23

94%

15-16

79%

15-19

Play-by-play · 409 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
WSH 78·SEA 64
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
WSH 78·SEA 64
Q4·9.8
Mackenzie Holmes defensive rebound
·
WSH 78·SEA 64
Q4·12.2
Sonia Citron misses driving floating jump shot
WSH 78·SEA 64
Q4·31.6
Jade Melbourne makes driving layup
WSH 78·SEA 64
Q4·45.6
Flau'jae Johnson defensive rebound
WSH 78·SEA 62
Q4·49.0
Alicia Florez Getino misses 14-foot pullup jump shot
WSH 78·SEA 62
Q4·1:07
Mackenzie Holmes personal foul
·
WSH 78·SEA 62
Q4·1:07
Kiki Iriafen defensive rebound
WSH 78·SEA 62
Q4·1:10
Jade Melbourne misses 13-foot fade away jump shot
WSH 78·SEA 62
Q4·1:24
Alicia Florez Getino enters the game for Georgia Amoore
·
WSH 78·SEA 62
Q4·1:24
Sonia Citron kicked ball violation
WSH 78·SEA 62
Q4·1:26
Natisha Hiedeman defensive rebound
WSH 78·SEA 62
Q4·1:29
Shakira Austin misses two point shot
WSH 78·SEA 62
Q4·1:50
Jade Melbourne makes 5-foot two point shot
WSH 78·SEA 62
Q4·2:05
Mackenzie Holmes defensive rebound
·
WSH 78·SEA 60
Q4·2:08
Georgia Amoore misses 12-foot jumper
WSH 78·SEA 60
Q4·2:26
Shakira Austin defensive rebound
WSH 78·SEA 60
Q4·2:30
Flau'jae Johnson misses 12-foot turnaround jump shot
WSH 78·SEA 60
Q4·2:39
Mackenzie Holmes offensive rebound
·
WSH 78·SEA 60
Q4·2:44
Awa Fam misses 14-foot jumper
WSH 78·SEA 60
Q4·2:55
Kiki Iriafen enters the game for Angela Dugalic
·
WSH 78·SEA 60
Q4·2:55
(02:55) [Mystics] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
WSH 78·SEA 60
Q4·2:55
Storm Full timeout
WSH 78·SEA 60
Q4·2:55
Angela Dugalic offensive foul turnover
WSH 78·SEA 60
Q4·2:55
Angela Dugalic offensive foul
WSH 78·SEA 60
Q4·3:08
Flau'jae Johnson makes two point shot
WSH 78·SEA 60
Q4·3:09
Flau'jae Johnson offensive rebound
WSH 78·SEA 58
Q4·3:10
Shakira Austin blocks Mackenzie Holmes 's 4-foot layup
· ·
WSH 78·SEA 58
Q4·3:22
Jade Melbourne offensive rebound
WSH 78·SEA 58

Betting line

WSH -3.5·O/U 160.5·WSH -162/SEA +136

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

ashington Mystics went into Seattle Storm and beat them, 78–64.

WSH -3.5 cashed (won by 14). Total stayed UNDER 160.5 by 18.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

WSH

SEA

eFG%

shooting

47.7%

38.9%

TOV%

ball control

14.1%

13.4%

OREB%

offensive glass

40.6%

30.8%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

22.7%

23.8%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Kiki IriafenWSH · F
DRB%.30197
Shakira AustinWSH · C
DRB%.28195
Stefanie DolsonSEA · C
TS%.64588
Sonia CitronWSH · G
TS%.63984
Natisha HiedemanSEA · G
USG%.25484

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.7%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
64.8%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
65.8%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
65.2%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.41 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.09

CLV pp

Open price

+124

Close price

+130

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

41.7%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at SEA?: The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+19.3pp

best edge · SEA · DraftKings

WSH

no live price

SEA

★ best

+136DraftKings

edge +19.3pp · implied 40.7%

Book	WSH	SEA	Best edge
DraftKings	-162	+136★	+19.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

SEA vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 95 high confidence

Points

Shakira AustinWSH
16.8± 5.6high
Natisha HiedemanSEA
16.6± 8.6high
Sonia CitronWSH
15.6± 8.7high

Rebounds

Shakira AustinWSH
9.8± 3.7high
Dominique MalongaSEA
9.5± 3.3high
Kiki IriafenWSH
9.0± 3.6high

Assists

Natisha HiedemanSEA
4.4± 2.5high
Jade MelbourneSEA
3.8± 1.0high
Sonia CitronWSH
3.8± 2.0high

Blocks

Shakira AustinWSH
1.6± 1.3high
Awa FamSEA
1.3± 0.7high
Dominique MalongaSEA
1.2± 1.2high

Steals

Flau'jae JohnsonSEA
1.7± 1.2high
Natisha HiedemanSEA
1.3± 1.5high
Awa FamSEA
1.1± 1.5high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Washington MysticsSeattle Storm

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop