Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at CHI?

The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+7TOR

TOR

4-4

111104

CHI

3-4

WNBAWed, May 27FinalSeriesTOR leads series 2-0VegasCHI -4.5

TOR · top performer

Nyara Sabally

F · #8

26.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CHI · top performer

Skylar Diggins

G · #4

23.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowTOR ↔ CHI

Biggest swing: 18pp · 4th Quarter · 3:33

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. SaballyF · #8	28	29	11-14	3-4	4-6	+2	6	2
L. JuskaiteF · #2	22	7	3-4	1-1	—	+8	2	2
B. SykesG · #20	35	20	6-14	1-4	7-8	+3	6	2
M. MabreyG · #3	28	24	9-13	3-7	3-4	+9	4	7
K. RiceG · #1	34	14	3-7	0-2	8-9	+11	8	7
Bench
M. CondeF · #10	21	12	4-9	3-6	1-1	-7	4	0
T. KeyF · #7	10	3	1-2	1-1	—	+4	1	0
N. MilicF · #31	8	2	0-2	—	2-2	+2	3	0
K. NurseG · #11	8	0	0-1	0-1	—	+2	1	0
L. HeldG · #12	6	0	—	—	—	+1	2	2
Team		111	37-66	12-26	25-30		37	22
DNP: I. Harrison, T. Fagbenle, J. Allemand

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. StevensF · #30	15	10	3-7	1-4	3-3	-1	0	3
K. CardosoC · #10	22	2	1-5	—	—	-1	5	3
S. DigginsG · #4	36	23	8-16	1-6	6-7	-3	2	9
N. CloudG · #9	31	18	7-8	2-3	2-2	0	5	9
J. SheldonG · #0	19	4	2-6	0-3	—	-7	0	0
Bench
E. WilliamsC · #1	23	11	4-6	—	3-6	-8	9	3
R. BanhamG · #24	13	0	0-1	0-1	—	-6	1	1
A. CoulibalyG · #35	18	9	2-4	0-2	5-5	-5	3	1
S. TaylorG · #12	23	27	9-22	3-12	6-6	-4	2	2
Team		104	36-75	7-31	25-29		27	31
DNP: R. Jackson, C. Vandersloot, D. Carrington, S. Poffenbarger, G. Jaquez

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

CHI

Home

37-66

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

36-75

FG %

12-26

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

7-31

25-30

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

25-29

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

TOR leads series 2-0

May 28

TOR111@

CHI104today

Jun 7

CHI68@

TOR85

Sep 23

TOR@

CHIupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHI -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

173.5

High-scoring · +8.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6.3h

Moneyline

TOR+16438%

CHI-19866%

26· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHI -4.5↗SpreadBet CHI -4.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

+1.0 since open

Total

173.5

+1.0 since open

How it ended

TOR beat CHI 111-104. N. Sabally paced them with 29 PTS, 6 REB, 2 AST. Sydney Taylor's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CHI vs TOR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

TORstarters 85% of pts

Starters(5)

94 PTS · 26 REB · 20 AST

GS 85

Bench(5)

17 PTS · 11 REB · 2 AST

GS 9

CHIstarters 55% of pts

Starters(5)

57 PTS · 12 REB · 24 AST

GS 52

Bench(4)

47 PTS · 15 REB · 7 AST

GS 37

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CHI4th Quarter · 3:33 · 98-96

+18pp→ 34% WP

Sydney Taylor · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Aicha Coulibaly assists)

CHI4th Quarter · 3:18 · 99-96

+13pp→ 32% WP

Nyara Sabally · misses free throw 2 of 2

TOR4th Quarter · 2:41 · 101-96

+15pp→ 84% WP

Marina Mabrey · makes 20-foot step back jumpshot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
TOR	25	30	25	31	111
CHI	22	26	26	30	104

Period scoring

TOR won 3 · CHI won 1

Conde 9

Diggins 8

Sabally 12

Diggins 5

Sabally 6

Taylor 15

Mabrey 11

Cloud 9

TOR

CHI

Shooting comparison

TOR

CHI

56%

37-66

48%

36-75

46%

12-26

3PT

23%

7-31

83%

25-30

86%

25-29

Play-by-play · 435 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
TOR 111·CHI 104
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
TOR 111·CHI 104
Q4·2.9
Marina Mabrey makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 111·CHI 104
Q4·2.9
Marina Mabrey makes free throw 1 of 2
TOR 110·CHI 104
Q4·2.9
Jacy Sheldon personal take foul
·
TOR 109·CHI 104
Q4·3.7
Tempo timeout
TOR 109·CHI 104
Q4·3.7
Natasha Cloud makes 19-foot pullup jump shot (Elizabeth Williams assists)
·
TOR 109·CHI 104
Q4·5.9
Sydney Taylor offensive rebound
TOR 109·CHI 102
Q4·8.9
Jacy Sheldon misses 23-foot three point jumper
·
TOR 109·CHI 102
Q4·12.5
Sky offensive team rebound
TOR 109·CHI 102
Q4·16.5
Sydney Taylor misses 24-foot three point jumper
TOR 109·CHI 102
−0.7pp
Q4·19.2
Nyara Sabally bad pass turnover (Elizabeth Williams steals)
·
TOR 109·CHI 102
+0.8pp
Q4·20.0
Sydney Taylor makes driving layup (Natasha Cloud assists)
·
TOR 109·CHI 102
Q4·26.0
Elizabeth Williams offensive rebound
TOR 109·CHI 100
Q4·27.7
Skylar Diggins misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
TOR 109·CHI 100
Q4·30.3
Sky timeout
TOR 109·CHI 100
Q4·30.3
Brittney Sykes makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 109·CHI 100
Q4·30.3
Tempo offensive team rebound
TOR 108·CHI 100
Q4·30.3
Brittney Sykes misses free throw 1 of 2
TOR 108·CHI 100
Q4·30.3
Skylar Diggins personal take foul
TOR 108·CHI 100
Q4·30.8
Elizabeth Williams personal take foul
TOR 108·CHI 100
Q4·32.5
Laura Juskaite defensive rebound
TOR 108·CHI 100
Q4·34.7
Sydney Taylor misses 23-foot three point pullup jump shot
TOR 108·CHI 100
−0.9pp
Q4·39.0
Sky Full timeout
TOR 108·CHI 100
Q4·39.0
Marina Mabrey makes 19-foot step back jumpshot
TOR 108·CHI 100
−2pp
Q4·53.0
Laura Juskaite defensive rebound
TOR 106·CHI 100
−1pp
Q4·55.5
Sydney Taylor misses 23-foot three point step back jumpshot
TOR 106·CHI 100
−4pp
Q4·1:06
Elizabeth Williams defensive rebound
TOR 106·CHI 100
+1pp
Q4·1:08
Laura Juskaite misses two point shot
TOR 106·CHI 100
+3pp
Q4·1:26
Skylar Diggins makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 106·CHI 100
−4pp

Betting line

CHI -4.5·O/U 173.5·TOR +164/CHI -198

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

oronto Tempo went into Chicago Sky and beat them, 111–104.

TOR +4.5 cashed (CHI lost outright). Total cleared the 173.5 OVER by 41.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

TOR

CHI

eFG%

shooting

65.2%

52.7%

TOV%

ball control

14.1%

9.3%

OREB%

offensive glass

35.7%

25.0%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

37.9%

33.3%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Marina MabreyTOR · G
USG%.29496
Brittney SykesTOR · G
USG%.29195
Kiki RiceTOR · G
TS%.67095
Skylar DigginsCHI · G
AST/TO2.792
Nyara SaballyTOR · F
ORB%.10991

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

31.5%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
42.9%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
41.9%
P(CHI win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
43.6%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.70 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-4.10

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+142

Close price

+170

Open no-vig

39.6%

Close no-vig

35.5%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at CHI?: The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+32.1pp

best edge · TOR · DraftKings

TOR

★ best

+164DraftKings

edge +32.1pp · implied 36.3%

CHI

no live price

Book	TOR	CHI	Best edge
DraftKings	+164★	-198	+32.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CHI vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 80 high confidence

Points

Marina MabreyTOR
20.8± 8.4high
Brittney SykesTOR
18.1± 10.6medium
Rickea JacksonCHI
16.0± 11.0low

Rebounds

Kamilla CardosoCHI
7.8± 3.0high
Azura StevensCHI
7.2± 2.9high
Isabelle HarrisonTOR
6.8± 2.8medium

Assists

Julie AllemandTOR
6.6± 3.4high
Natasha CloudCHI
5.2± 1.8high
Skylar DigginsCHI
4.9± 2.4high

Blocks

Kamilla CardosoCHI
1.4± 1.2high
Rickea JacksonCHI
1.2± 1.6low
Elizabeth WilliamsCHI
0.9± 0.9high

Steals

Julie AllemandTOR
1.4± 0.9high
Azura StevensCHI
1.3± 1.1high
Courtney VanderslootCHI
1.2± 1.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Toronto TempoChicago Sky

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop