Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHX at NY?

The model favors PHX, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+10NY

PHX

2-6

7484

4-4

WNBAWed, May 27FinalSeriesNY leads series 2-0VegasNY -4.5

PHX · top performer

Natasha Mack

F · #4

14.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NY · top performer

Marine Johannes

G · #23

19.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPHX ↔ NY

Biggest swing: 9pp · 3rd Quarter · 8:05

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. ThomasF · #25	32	9	4-9	—	1-3	-13	7	9
N. MackF · #4	28	14	6-7	—	2-2	-5	6	1
N. BrochantF · #1	19	3	1-4	1-4	—	-1	2	1
K. CopperG · #2	36	19	6-18	2-9	5-6	-13	2	2
M. Akoa MakaniG · #8	19	9	2-5	2-4	3-4	+9	2	4
Bench
D. BonnerF · #24	24	2	1-5	0-4	—	-11	5	0
V. AyayiF · #11	9	3	0-1	—	3-4	-7	0	0
K. LinskensC · #31	12	3	1-3	1-2	0-2	-5	6	1
J. NogicG · #29	14	9	3-5	3-5	0-1	-4	2	1
K. WilliamsG · #23	7	3	1-2	1-2	—	0	0	0
Team		74	25-59	10-30	14-22		32	19
DNP: M. Suarez, Q. Carter

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. StewartF · #30	34	11	4-10	0-3	3-3	+10	6	2
L. FiebichF · #13	33	9	3-4	2-3	1-1	+5	0	1
J. JonesC · #35	31	17	5-16	3-7	4-4	+15	12	4
M. JohannesG · #23	24	21	7-11	7-9	—	-1	3	5
P. AstierG · #18	23	7	3-7	0-1	1-1	+2	4	4
Bench
R. CarreraF · #14	1	0	—	—	—	-5	0	0
H. XuC · #21	11	8	3-6	1-2	1-1	-5	3	0
R. GardnerG · #7	18	2	1-3	0-1	—	+6	2	1
B. Laney-HamiltonG · #44	13	7	2-5	1-1	2-2	+15	0	2
R. AllenG · #9	13	2	0-5	0-3	2-2	+8	2	0
Team		84	28-67	14-30	14-14		32	19

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

PHX

Away

Stat

Home

25-59

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

28-67

FG %

10-30

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-30

14-22

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

14-14

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

NY leads series 2-0

May 27

PHX74@

NY84today

May 29

PHX68@

NY75

Aug 1

NY@

PHXupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NY -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

169.5

Standard · +4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PHX+15040%

NY-18064%

7· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NY -4.5↗SpreadBet NY -4.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

-1.0 since open

Total

169.5

-1.0 since open

How it ended

NY beat PHX 84-74. M. Johannes led with 21 PTS, 3 REB, 5 AST. NY outscored the other side 30-12 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

NY vs PHX

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PHXstarters 73% of pts

Starters(5)

54 PTS · 19 REB · 17 AST

GS 43

Bench(5)

20 PTS · 13 REB · 2 AST

GS 8

NYstarters 77% of pts

Starters(5)

65 PTS · 25 REB · 16 AST

GS 54

Bench(5)

19 PTS · 7 REB · 3 AST

GS 12

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

NY2nd Quarter · 1:36 · 36-40

+9pp→ 75% WP

Jonquel Jones · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Marine Johannes assists)

PHX3rd Quarter · 8:05 · 48-42

+9pp→ 69% WP

Pauline Astier · shooting foul

NY3rd Quarter · 4:44 · 55-55

+8pp→ 59% WP

Marine Johannes · makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jonquel Jones assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
PHX	22	21	12	19	74
NY	24	18	30	12	84

Period scoring

PHX won 2 · NY won 2

Nogic 6

Johannes 12

Copper 7

Xu 6

Copper 6

Jones 10

Thomas 4

Laney-Hamilton 7

PHX

Shooting comparison

PHX

42%

25-59

42%

28-67

33%

10-30

3PT

47%

14-30

64%

14-22

100%

14-14

Play-by-play · 399 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 74·NY 84
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHX 74·NY 84
Q4·3.3
Kiana Williams makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jovana Nogic assists)
·
PHX 74·NY 84
Q4·19.2
Kyara Linskens defensive rebound
PHX 71·NY 84
Q4·21.4
Rebekah Gardner misses driving layup
PHX 71·NY 84
Q4·35.3
Pauline Astier offensive rebound
PHX 71·NY 84
Q4·38.8
Rebekah Gardner misses 24-foot three point jumper
PHX 71·NY 84
Q4·54.8
Valeriane Ayayi makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 71·NY 84
Q4·54.8
Valeriane Ayayi makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 70·NY 84
Q4·54.8
(00:54.8) [Liberty] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Liberty] charged with a timeout
PHX 69·NY 84
Q4·54.8
Liberty Full timeout
PHX 69·NY 84
Q4·54.8
Raquel Carrera shooting foul
PHX 69·NY 84
Q4·1:13
Kiana Williams enters the game for Alyssa Thomas
·
PHX 69·NY 84
Q4·1:13
Noemie Brochant enters the game for DeWanna Bonner
·
PHX 69·NY 84
Q4·1:13
Kyara Linskens enters the game for Monique Akoa Makani
·
PHX 69·NY 84
Q4·1:13
Jovana Nogic enters the game for Natasha Mack
·
PHX 69·NY 84
Q4·1:13
Valeriane Ayayi enters the game for Kahleah Copper
·
PHX 69·NY 84
Q4·1:13
Raquel Carrera enters the game for Betnijah Laney-Hamilton
·
PHX 69·NY 84
Q4·1:13
Rebecca Allen enters the game for Jonquel Jones
·
PHX 69·NY 84
Q4·1:13
Han Xu enters the game for Breanna Stewart
·
PHX 69·NY 84
Q4·1:13
Rebekah Gardner enters the game for Leonie Fiebich
·
PHX 69·NY 84
Q4·1:13
Mercury Full timeout
PHX 69·NY 84
Q4·1:13
Betnijah Laney-Hamilton makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jonquel Jones assists)
·
PHX 69·NY 84
Q4·1:23
Alyssa Thomas bad pass turnover (Leonie Fiebich steals)
·
PHX 69·NY 81
Q4·1:28
Natasha Mack defensive rebound
PHX 69·NY 81
Q4·1:31
Jonquel Jones misses 25-foot three point jumper
PHX 69·NY 81
Q4·1:45
Breanna Stewart defensive rebound
PHX 69·NY 81
Q4·1:47
Kahleah Copper misses 26-foot three point jumper
PHX 69·NY 81
Q4·1:51
DeWanna Bonner offensive rebound
PHX 69·NY 81
Q4·1:53
Kahleah Copper misses 24-foot three point jumper
PHX 69·NY 81

Betting line

NY -4.5·O/U 169.5·PHX +150/NY -180

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

ew York Liberty held off Phoenix Mercury, 84–74.

NY -4.5 cashed (won by 10). Total stayed UNDER 169.5 by 11.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

PHX

eFG%

shooting

50.8%

52.2%

TOV%

ball control

18.9%

13.1%

OREB%

offensive glass

21.2%

19.4%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

23.7%

20.9%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Natasha MackPHX · F
TS%.70899+
Kahleah CopperPHX · G
USG%.30599
Jonquel JonesNY · C
DRB%.27493
Marine JohannesNY · G
eFG%.62993
Pauline AstierNY · G
TS%.65692

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.3%

ensemble · NY favored

Elo Static
64.2%
P(NY win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
65.3%
P(NY win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
68.3%
P(NY win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.73 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+2.68

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+215

Close price

+190

Open no-vig

30.4%

Close no-vig

33.1%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHX at NY?: The model favors PHX, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+2.2pp

best edge · PHX · DraftKings

PHX

★ best

+150DraftKings

edge +2.2pp · implied 38.4%

no live price

Book	PHX	NY	Best edge
DraftKings	+150★	-180	+2.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

NY vs PHX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 65 high confidence

Points

Breanna StewartNY
22.7± 8.6high
Kahleah CopperPHX
20.2± 8.1high
Sabrina IonescuNY
18.4± 8.4medium

Rebounds

Jonquel JonesNY
9.7± 3.0high
Breanna StewartNY
8.7± 2.8high
Alyssa ThomasPHX
7.5± 2.7high

Assists

Alyssa ThomasPHX
8.3± 3.9high
Sabrina IonescuNY
4.5± 2.1medium
Breanna StewartNY
3.8± 2.5high

Blocks

Breanna StewartNY
1.6± 1.0high
Jonquel JonesNY
1.1± 0.7high
Natasha MackPHX
1.1± 0.9high

Steals

Alyssa ThomasPHX
1.4± 1.3high
Breanna StewartNY
1.2± 1.3high
Leonie FiebichNY
1.2± 1.1medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Phoenix MercuryNew York Liberty

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop