Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATL at MIN?

The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+15MIN

ATL

4-2

8196

MIN

5-2

WNBAWed, May 27FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasATL -3.5

ATL · top performer

Allisha Gray

G · #15

14.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIN · top performer

Courtney Williams

G · #10

21.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowATL ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 7pp · 2nd Quarter · 6:48

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. HillmonF · #00	32	15	7-14	1-5	—	-18	8	1
A. ReeseF · #5	27	10	3-8	0-2	4-4	-16	8	5
A. GrayG · #15	31	21	7-11	5-8	2-2	-15	0	3
J. CanadaG · #3	29	9	2-6	1-3	4-4	-18	1	5
R. HowardG · #10	36	10	4-14	2-8	—	-12	2	4
Bench
S. KoneF · #23	9	5	2-4	1-3	—	+8	3	0
M. OkotC · #11	5	4	1-1	—	2-4	-5	1	0
T. PaopaoG · #2	11	3	1-1	1-1	—	+3	0	1
A. NyeG · #32	2	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
I. NivarG · #21	5	0	0-2	—	0-2	+4	3	1
I. BorlaseG · #20	13	4	2-4	0-1	—	-6	1	3
Team		81	29-65	11-31	12-16		27	23
DNP: B. Jones

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. HowardF · #1	33	22	11-16	—	—	+18	8	5
N. CoffeyF · #12	31	14	6-10	2-5	—	+16	5	3
K. McBrideG · #21	34	12	4-10	1-4	3-3	+20	2	1
C. WilliamsG · #10	33	25	10-15	3-5	2-2	+10	3	7
O. MilesG · #5	34	16	6-10	0-2	4-5	+21	5	8
Bench
L. KingF · #2	9	3	1-1	1-1	—	-1	1	0
A. DelaereF · #8	6	0	0-1	0-1	—	-2	0	0
A. KosuF · #7	7	2	1-1	—	—	-3	0	1
M. CaldwellG · #3	14	2	1-3	0-1	—	-4	0	1
Team		96	40-67	7-19	9-10		24	26
DNP: N. Collier, D. Juhasz, E. Cechova

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

29-65

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

40-67

FG %

11-31

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

7-19

12-16

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

9-10

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

May 10

ATL91@

MIN90

May 28

ATL81@

MIN96today

Aug 30

MIN@

ATLupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

165.5

Standard · +0.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6.3h

Moneyline

ATL-14860%

MIN+12445%

16· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -3.5↗SpreadBet ATL -3.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

+1.0 since open

Total

165.5

+1.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat ATL 96-81. C. Williams paced them with 25 PTS, 3 REB, 7 AST. MIN outscored the other side 23-14 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIN vs ATL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ATLstarters 80% of pts

Starters(5)

65 PTS · 19 REB · 18 AST

GS 46

Bench(6)

16 PTS · 8 REB · 5 AST

GS 15

MINstarters 93% of pts

Starters(5)

89 PTS · 23 REB · 24 AST

GS 79

Bench(4)

7 PTS · 1 REB · 2 AST

GS 4

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

ATL2nd Quarter · 6:48 · 26-26

+7pp→ 47% WP

Sika Kone · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Naz Hillmon assists)

ATL2nd Quarter · 4:22 · 31-32

+7pp→ 43% WP

Allisha Gray · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jordin Canada assists)

MIN3rd Quarter · 8:02 · 40-47

+7pp→ 77% WP

Courtney Williams · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nia Coffey assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
ATL	14	23	19	25	81
MIN	23	19	28	26	96

Period scoring

ATL won 1 · MIN won 3

Hillmon 7

Coffey 9

Gray 9

Miles 7

Gray 8

Howard 12

Howard 7

Williams 9

ATL

MIN

Shooting comparison

ATL

MIN

45%

29-65

60%

40-67

35%

11-31

3PT

37%

7-19

75%

12-16

90%

9-10

Play-by-play · 360 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
ATL 81·MIN 96
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ATL 81·MIN 96
Q4·20.8
Isobel Borlase makes driving layup (Indya Nivar assists)
·
ATL 81·MIN 96
Q4·27.7
Maya Caldwell bad pass turnover (Indya Nivar steals)
·
ATL 79·MIN 96
Q4·43.7
Madina Okot makes 3-foot layup (Isobel Borlase assists)
·
ATL 79·MIN 96
Q4·55.1
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu makes 2-foot layup (Olivia Miles assists)
·
ATL 77·MIN 96
Q4·1:11
Madina Okot makes free throw 2 of 2
ATL 77·MIN 94
Q4·1:11
Dream offensive team rebound
ATL 76·MIN 94
Q4·1:11
Madina Okot misses free throw 1 of 2
ATL 76·MIN 94
Q4·1:11
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu shooting foul
ATL 76·MIN 94
Q4·1:12
Madina Okot offensive rebound
ATL 76·MIN 94
Q4·1:15
Indya Nivar misses free throw 2 of 2
ATL 76·MIN 94
Q4·1:15
Dream offensive team rebound
ATL 76·MIN 94
Q4·1:15
Indya Nivar misses free throw 1 of 2
ATL 76·MIN 94
Q4·1:15
Maya Caldwell personal foul
ATL 76·MIN 94
Q4·1:20
Maya Caldwell makes 19-foot jumper (Anastasiia Olairi Kosu assists)
·
ATL 76·MIN 94
Q4·1:24
Lynx offensive team rebound
ATL 76·MIN 92
Q4·1:28
Antonia Delaere misses 22-foot running jump shot
ATL 76·MIN 92
Q4·1:33
Indya Nivar bad pass turnover (Antonia Delaere steals)
·
ATL 76·MIN 92
Q4·1:35
Dream offensive team rebound
ATL 76·MIN 92
Q4·1:35
Isobel Borlase misses two point shot
ATL 76·MIN 92
Q4·1:41
Isobel Borlase offensive rebound
ATL 76·MIN 92
Q4·1:46
Madina Okot misses free throw 2 of 2
ATL 76·MIN 92
Q4·1:46
Antonia Delaere enters the game for Nia Coffey
·
ATL 76·MIN 92
Q4·1:46
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu enters the game for Courtney Williams
·
ATL 76·MIN 92
Q4·1:46
Liatu King enters the game for Natasha Howard
· ·
ATL 76·MIN 92
Q4·1:46
Madina Okot makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 76·MIN 92
Q4·1:46
Natasha Howard shooting foul
·
ATL 75·MIN 92
Q4·1:56
Courtney Williams makes 20-foot pullup jump shot
ATL 75·MIN 92
Q4·2:06
Isobel Borlase enters the game for Allisha Gray
·
ATL 75·MIN 90

Betting line

ATL -3.5·O/U 165.5·ATL -148/MIN +124

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

innesota Lynx held off Atlanta Dream, 96–81.

MIN +3.5 cashed (ATL lost outright). Total cleared the 165.5 OVER by 11.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

ATL

MIN

eFG%

shooting

53.1%

64.9%

TOV%

ball control

18.2%

16.4%

OREB%

offensive glass

34.5%

22.7%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

18.5%

13.4%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Angel ReeseATL · F
ORB%.20899+
Natasha HowardMIN · F
ORB%.15099
Jordin CanadaATL · G
AST/TO2.995
Nia CoffeyMIN · F
eFG%.60991
Kayla McBrideMIN · G
AST/TO2.391

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.7%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
64.2%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
63.9%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
64.2%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.14 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-3.19

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-105

Close price

+110

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

45.7%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ATL at MIN?: The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+17.1pp

best edge · MIN · DraftKings

ATL

no live price

MIN

★ best

+124DraftKings

edge +17.1pp · implied 42.8%

Book	ATL	MIN	Best edge
DraftKings	-148	+124★	+17.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

MIN vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 90 high confidence

Points

Kayla McBrideMIN
21.8± 7.0high
Allisha GrayATL
19.7± 4.1high
Olivia MilesMIN
19.2± 7.9high

Rebounds

Angel ReeseATL
10.7± 3.1high
Natasha HowardMIN
7.5± 2.9high
Olivia MilesMIN
5.2± 2.8high

Assists

Jordin CanadaATL
8.1± 3.0high
Olivia MilesMIN
6.0± 2.9high
Courtney WilliamsMIN
4.5± 2.1high

Blocks

Nia CoffeyMIN
1.1± 1.1high
Dorka JuhaszMIN
1.0± 0.3low
Natasha HowardMIN
1.0± 1.2high

Steals

Angel ReeseATL
2.2± 1.6high
Jordin CanadaATL
2.2± 0.7high
Rhyne HowardATL
2.2± 1.6high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Atlanta DreamMinnesota Lynx

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop