Recent form
7-3
CAR +1.0 vs VGK +0.8 margin
CAR brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
Carolina Hurricanes at Vegas Golden Knights
CAR
CAR
53-22-7
PregameSun, 8:00 PM EDT
VGK
VGK
39-26-17
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketPreview · NHL
arolina Hurricanes visit Vegas Golden Knights Sunday at 6/14 - 8:00 PM EDT.
Vegas opened CAR as a 1.5-point favorite with the total at 5.5. VGK's moneyline implies a 51% break-even, CAR the inverse.
For bettors: the CAR side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Updated 0s ago
Playoff series
CAR leads series 3-2
Jun 3VGK5@CAR4
VGK5@CAR4Jun 5VGK3@CAR4
VGK3@CAR4Jun 7CAR4@VGK5
CAR4@VGK5Jun 10CAR5@VGK3
CAR5@VGK3Jun 12VGK2@CAR4
VGK2@CAR4Jun 15CAR@VGKtoday
CAR@VGKtodayJun 18VGK@CARupcoming
VGK@CARupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
CAR -1.5
Total
5.5
Defensive · -3.0 vs avg
Moneyline
CAR-11553%VGK-10551%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
5.5
0.0 since open
Team stats
CAR
Away
Stat
VGK
Home
24.9
PCT
24.6
640
PIM
609
Betting line
CAR -1.5·O/U 5.5·CAR -115/VGK -105
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Scouting report · pre-game
VGK vs CAR.
VGK is 7-3 recently; CAR is 7-3.
51.8%
model · VGK win prob
Recent form
- VGK7–3+0.8
- CAR7–3+1.0
Situational
- VGK3d rest
- CAR3d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. VGK has 1 straight road games; CAR has 0.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Head-to-head · 2-3 · last 5
VGK is 2-3 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-06-02VGK @ CAR5–4
- 2026-06-04VGK @ CAR3–4
- 2026-06-06CAR @ VGK4–5
- 2026-06-09CAR @ VGK5–3
- 2026-06-11VGK @ CAR2–4
Line move
open -105→-105flat
The home moneyline has stayed mostly flat.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
51.8%
ensemble · VGK favored
Elo Static
52.9%
P(VGK win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
52.9%
P(VGK win)
16%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
52.9%
P(VGK win)
17%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
1 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
-105
Close price
-105
Open no-vig
48.9%
Close no-vig
48.9%
Line barely moved
Line shopping · 1 book
Where to bet this game.
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
+2.8pp
best edge · VGK · DraftKings
CAR
no live price
VGK
★ best-105DraftKings
edge +2.8pp · implied 48.9%
| Book | CAR | VGK | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -115 | -105★ | +2.8 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.