Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CAR at VGK?

The model favors VGK, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3CAR

CAR

53-22-7

VGK

39-26-17

NHLSun, Jun 14FinalSeriesVGK wins series 2-0VegasCAR -115

CAR · top performer

Jackson Blake

RW · #53

2Points

—

SOG

VGK · top performer

Pavel Dorofeyev

RW · #16

0Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AhoC · #20	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	20:14
J. BlakeRW · #53	1	1	2	3	0	2	2	14:32
W. CarrierLW · #28	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	10:26
N. EhlersLW · #27	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	15:28
T. HallLW · #71	1	0	2	2	0	0	0	14:38
M. JankowskiLW · #77	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	8:50
S. JarvisC · #24	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	18:44
J. MartinookLW · #48	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	16:01
E. RobinsonLW · #50	0	0	0	1	3	0	2	8:53
J. StaalC · #11	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	17:02
L. StankovenC · #22	0	1	2	1	5	0	2	16:15
A. SvechnikovRW · #37	0	0	1	3	6	0	0	16:26

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChatfieldD · #5	0	0	1	0	1	4	0	23:37
S. GostisbehereD · #4	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	11:54
K. MillerD · #19	0	0	2	0	1	1	0	22:59
A. NikishinD · #21	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	11:40
J. SlavinD · #74	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	22:31
S. WalkerD · #26	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	23:50

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BussiG · #32	22	0	22	1.000	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. BarbashevLW · #49	0	0	-2	2	3	0	0	11:48
B. BowmanRW · #42	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:12
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	0	0	-1	6	0	0	0	17:50
N. DowdC · #26	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	11:29
J. EichelC · #9	0	0	-1	2	3	2	2	24:07
T. HertlC · #48	0	0	-1	3	4	0	2	17:00
B. HowdenC · #21	0	0	-2	1	2	0	0	14:52
M. MarnerRW · #93	0	0	-3	3	3	0	0	22:58
C. SissonsC · #10	0	0	0	1	5	1	0	13:11
R. SmithRW · #19	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	9:21
C. SmithRW · #22	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	10:43
M. StoneRW · #61	0	0	-1	2	3	0	0	23:49

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnderssonD · #4	0	0	-2	0	1	1	2	19:11
N. HanifinD · #15	0	0	-2	0	0	2	0	16:33
K. KorczakD · #6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:58
J. LauzonD · #5	0	0	0	1	7	0	0	15:27
B. McNabbD · #3	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	20:12
S. TheodoreD · #27	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	24:17

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HartG · #79	22	2	20	.909	58:02

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CAR

Away

Stat

VGK

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

CAR wins series 4-2

Jun 3

VGK5@

CAR4

Jun 5

VGK3@

CAR4

Jun 7

CAR4@

VGK5

Jun 10

CAR5@

VGK3

Jun 12

VGK2@

CAR4

Jun 15

CAR3@

VGK0today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CAR-11553%

VGK-10551%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CAR beat VGK 3-0. J. Blake led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CAR	1	1	1	3
VGK	0	0	0	0

Period scoring

CAR won 3 · VGK won 0

CAR

VGK

Play-by-play · 342 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CAR 3·VGK 0
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CAR 3·VGK 0
3rd·19:32
Andrei Svechnikov Snap Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
CAR 3·VGK 0
3rd·19:03
Rasmus Andersson Slap Shot Above Crossbar
·
CAR 3·VGK 0
3rd·18:52
Sebastian Aho faceoff won against Colton Sissons
·
CAR 3·VGK 0
3rd·18:52
Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: none
CAR 3·VGK 0
3rd·18:49
Giveaway by Shea Theodore
CAR 2·VGK 0
3rd·18:47
Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Sebastian Aho
·
CAR 2·VGK 0
3rd·18:47
Off-side
CAR 2·VGK 0
3rd·18:35
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Tomas Hertl
·
CAR 2·VGK 0
3rd·18:35
Icing
CAR 2·VGK 0
3rd·18:27
Pavel Dorofeyev shot blocked by Jalen Chatfield
·
CAR 2·VGK 0
3rd·18:16
Tomas Hertl shot blocked by Jalen Chatfield
·
CAR 2·VGK 0
3rd·18:04
Mark Stone Deflected Wide Right
·
CAR 2·VGK 0
3rd·17:54
Shea Theodore Slap Shot Wide Right
·
CAR 2·VGK 0
3rd·17:46
Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
CAR 2·VGK 0
3rd·17:46
Off-side
CAR 2·VGK 0
3rd·17:39
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
CAR 2·VGK 0
3rd·17:39
Goalie Stopped
CAR 2·VGK 0
3rd·17:36
Tomas Hertl Snap Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
·
CAR 2·VGK 0
3rd·17:35
Shea Theodore Wrist Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
·
CAR 2·VGK 0
3rd·17:32
Colton Sissons hit K'Andre Miller
·
CAR 2·VGK 0
3rd·17:32
Giveaway by K'Andre Miller
CAR 2·VGK 0
3rd·17:28
Jack Eichel Wrist Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
·
CAR 2·VGK 0
3rd·17:10
Tomas Hertl shot blocked by Jackson Blake
·
CAR 2·VGK 0
3rd·16:17
Pavel Dorofeyev Slap Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
·
CAR 2·VGK 0
3rd·16:15
Brett Howden shot blocked by Jalen Chatfield
·
CAR 2·VGK 0
3rd·15:58
Ivan Barbashev Wrist Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
·
CAR 2·VGK 0
3rd·15:50
Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Sebastian Aho
·
CAR 2·VGK 0
3rd·15:50
Icing
CAR 2·VGK 0

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 5.5·CAR -115/VGK -105

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

arolina Hurricanes went into Vegas Golden Knights and beat them, 3–0.

CAR -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Pavel Dorofeyev · NYR18:000.7276.5%77.4%18:00 TOI · 0.72 iXG · 76.5% CF · 77.4% xGF
Tomas Hertl · VGK17:300.6180.6%88.0%17:30 TOI · 0.61 iXG · 80.6% CF · 88.0% xGF
Sebastian Aho · CAR20:240.5654.5%56.8%20:24 TOI · 0.56 iXG · 54.5% CF · 56.8% xGF
Mark Stone · VGK23:540.5166.0%70.2%23:54 TOI · 0.51 iXG · 66.0% CF · 70.2% xGF
Brett Howden · VGK15:060.2963.6%60.7%15:06 TOI · 0.29 iXG · 63.6% CF · 60.7% xGF
Jackson Blake · CAR14:480.2961.9%62.9%14:48 TOI · 0.29 iXG · 61.9% CF · 62.9% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Brandon Bussi · CAR22–01.000+2.6022–0 · 1.000 SV% · +2.60 GSAx
Carter Hart · VGK20–2.909-0.2820–2 · .909 SV% · -0.28 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.4%

ensemble · VGK favored

Elo Static
51.4%
P(VGK win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
51.4%
P(VGK win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
51.4%
P(VGK win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-105

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

48.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CAR at VGK?: The model favors VGK, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+2.5pp

best edge · VGK · DraftKings

CAR

no live price

VGK

★ best

-105DraftKings

edge +2.5pp · implied 48.9%

Book	CAR	VGK	Best edge
DraftKings	-115	-105★	+2.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

On the call · NHL

6 officials

Linesman

Scott Cherrey

Referee

Chris Rooney

Referee

Jean Hebert

Linesman

Matt MacPherson

Linesman

Trent Knorr

Referee

Garrett Rank

Per-official season stats (foul rate, strike-zone tendency) activate with the season-stats rollup. Bookmark the names for now.