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FINAL+5PIT
PIT

PIT

34-18-15

72
COL

COL

44-13-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLMon, Mar 16FinalSeriesPIT leads series 1-0VegasCOL -218

Recap · NHL

ittsburgh Penguins went into Colorado Avalanche and beat them, 7–2.

PIT +1.5 cashed (COL lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PIT · top performer

PIT
Evgeni Malkin

Evgeni Malkin

C · #71

3Points

2

G

1

A

—

SOG

COL · top performer

COL
Gavin Brindley

Gavin Brindley

C · #54

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Pittsburgh Penguins at Colorado Avalanche · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
7
2
PIT34-18-15COL44-13-9
PIT

PIT

34-18-15

7
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
COL

COL

44-13-9

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

15

PIM

13

Season series

PIT leads series 1-0

Mar 17PITPIT7@COLCOL2today
Mar 24COLCOL6@PITPIT2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PITPIT+18036%
COLCOL-21869%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 14 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PIT beat COL 7-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
PIT4217
COL2002

Period scoring

PIT won 3 · COL won 0

4
2

1

2
0

2

1
0

3

PIT
COL

Play-by-play · 295 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    PIT 7·COL 2

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    PIT 7·COL 2

  3. 3rd·19:24

    Kris Letang shot blocked by Josh Manson

    ·

    PIT 7·COL 2

  4. 3rd·19:21

    Egor Chinakhov Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    PIT 7·COL 2

  5. 3rd·18:56

    Giveaway by Josh Manson

    PIT 7·COL 2

  6. 3rd·18:35

    Takeaway by Connor Clifton

    PIT 7·COL 2

  7. 3rd·18:22

    Bryan Rust shot blocked by Josh Manson

    ·

    PIT 7·COL 2

  8. 3rd·18:20

    Rickard Rakell faceoff won against Jack Drury

    ·

    PIT 7·COL 2

  9. 3rd·18:20

    Puck Frozen - Goalie

    PIT 7·COL 2

  10. 3rd·17:33

    Ilya Solovyov hit Gavin Brindley

    ·

    PIT 7·COL 2

  11. 3rd·17:16

    Gavin Brindley hit Connor Clifton

    ·

    PIT 7·COL 2

  12. 3rd·16:12

    Connor Dewar faceoff won against Nathan MacKinnon

    ·

    PIT 7·COL 2

  13. 3rd·16:12

    Icing

    PIT 7·COL 2

  14. 3rd·15:44

    Noel Acciari Snap Shot saved by Mackenzie Blackwood

    ·

    PIT 7·COL 2

  15. 3rd·15:20

    Giveaway by Zakhar Bardakov

    PIT 7·COL 2

  16. 3rd·15:19

    Brock Nelson hit Bryan Rust

    ·

    PIT 7·COL 2

  17. 3rd·14:59

    Connor Dewar faceoff won against Brock Nelson

    ·

    PIT 7·COL 2

  18. 3rd·14:59

    Puck in Netting

    PIT 7·COL 2

  19. 3rd·14:57

    Josh Manson shot blocked by Egor Chinakhov

    ·

    PIT 7·COL 2

  20. 3rd·14:53

    Nick Blankenburg shot blocked by Egor Chinakhov

    ·

    PIT 7·COL 2

  21. 3rd·14:43

    Josh Manson Wrist Shot saved by Arturs Silovs

    ·

    PIT 7·COL 2

  22. 3rd·14:29

    Kris Letang Slap Shot saved by Mackenzie Blackwood

    ·

    PIT 7·COL 2

  23. 3rd·14:04

    Parker Wotherspoon Slap Shot Off Crossbar

    ·

    PIT 7·COL 2

  24. 3rd·13:48

    Sam Malinski shot blocked by Noel Acciari

    ·

    PIT 7·COL 2

  25. 3rd·13:42

    Nathan MacKinnon Wrist Shot saved by Arturs Silovs

    ·

    PIT 7·COL 2

  26. 3rd·13:27

    Nazem Kadri shot blocked by Ben Kindel

    ·

    PIT 7·COL 2

  27. 3rd·13:16

    Nazem Kadri Tip-In saved by Arturs Silovs

    ·

    PIT 7·COL 2

  28. 3rd·12:58

    Cale Makar Slap Shot saved by Arturs Silovs

    ·

    PIT 7·COL 2

  29. 3rd·12:53

    Cale Makar Wrist Shot High and Wide Right

    ·

    PIT 7·COL 2

  30. 3rd·12:50

    Brock Nelson faceoff won against Rickard Rakell

    ·

    PIT 7·COL 2

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

COL

Home

20

Shots

27

33.3

PCT

0.0

15

PIM

13

28

Faceoffs W

29

19

Blocks

12

18

Giveaways

16

5

Takeaways

4

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·PIT +180/COL -218

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C
    BURSTS8799+
  • Cale MakarCOL · D
    SKATE MPH23.999+
  • Martin NecasCOL · C
    BURSTS7599
  • Egor ChinakhovPIT · RW
    SHOT MPH94.799
  • Erik KarlssonPIT · D
    SKATE MPH22.897

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · COL favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(COL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(COL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(COL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR