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FINAL+3UTA
UTA

UTA

35-27-6

63
DAL

DAL

42-15-10

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLMon, Mar 16FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasDAL -162

Recap · NHL

tah Mammoth went into Dallas Stars and beat them, 6–3.

UTA +1.5 cashed (DAL lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

UTA · top performer

UTA
Michael Carcone

Michael Carcone

LW · #53

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

DAL · top performer

DAL
Jamie Benn

Jamie Benn

LW · #14

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Utah Mammoth at Dallas Stars · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
6
3
UTA35-27-6DAL42-15-10
UTA

UTA

35-27-6

6
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
DAL

DAL

42-15-10

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

16

PIM

16

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Nov 29UTAUTA3@DALDAL4
Jan 16DALDAL1@UTAUTA2
Feb 1DALDAL3@UTAUTA2
Mar 17UTAUTA6@DALDAL3today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

UTAUTA+13642%
DALDAL-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

UTA beat DAL 6-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
UTA1146
DAL1113

Period scoring

UTA won 1 · DAL won 0

1
1

1

1
1

2

4
1

3

UTA
DAL

Play-by-play · 285 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    UTA 6·DAL 3

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    UTA 6·DAL 3

  3. 3rd·19:56

    Arttu Hyry faceoff won against Barrett Hayton

    ·

    UTA 6·DAL 3

  4. 3rd·19:56

    Adam Erne Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Arttu Hyry (1), Tyler Myers (8)

    · ·

    UTA 6·DAL 3

  5. 3rd·19:47

    Arttu Hyry faceoff won against Alexander Kerfoot

    ·

    UTA 6·DAL 2

  6. 3rd·19:47

    Puck in Netting

    UTA 6·DAL 2

  7. 3rd·19:42

    Tyler Myers Slap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    UTA 6·DAL 2

  8. 3rd·19:41

    Arttu Hyry faceoff won against Alexander Kerfoot

    ·

    UTA 6·DAL 2

  9. 3rd·19:41

    Goalie Stopped

    UTA 6·DAL 2

  10. 3rd·19:39

    Tyler Myers Wrist Shot saved by Vitek Vanecek

    ·

    UTA 6·DAL 2

  11. 3rd·19:20

    Arttu Hyry faceoff won against Logan Cooley

    ·

    UTA 6·DAL 2

  12. 3rd·19:20

    Lawson Crouse Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (36)

    ·

    UTA 6·DAL 2

  13. 3rd·19:07

    Barrett Hayton shot blocked by Nils Lundkvist

    ·

    UTA 5·DAL 2

  14. 3rd·18:57

    Nils Lundkvist Wrist Shot saved by Vitek Vanecek

    ·

    UTA 5·DAL 2

  15. 3rd·17:41

    Thomas Harley hit Dylan Guenther

    ·

    UTA 5·DAL 2

  16. 3rd·17:12

    Nick Schmaltz Tip-In saved by Casey DeSmith

    ·

    UTA 5·DAL 2

  17. 3rd·17:01

    Nate Schmidt hit Jason Robertson

    ·

    UTA 5·DAL 2

  18. 3rd·16:18

    Giveaway by MacKenzie Weegar

    UTA 5·DAL 2

  19. 3rd·16:06

    Alexander Kerfoot faceoff won against Wyatt Johnston

    ·

    UTA 5·DAL 2

  20. 3rd·16:06

    Michael Carcone Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (19)

    ·

    UTA 5·DAL 2

  21. 3rd·15:57

    Thomas Harley Snap Shot saved by Vitek Vanecek

    ·

    UTA 4·DAL 2

  22. 3rd·15:50

    Giveaway by JJ Peterka

    UTA 4·DAL 2

  23. 3rd·15:42

    Esa Lindell Snap Shot saved by Vitek Vanecek

    ·

    UTA 4·DAL 2

  24. 3rd·15:38

    Giveaway by Logan Cooley

    UTA 4·DAL 2

  25. 3rd·15:31

    Miro Heiskanen Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    UTA 4·DAL 2

  26. 3rd·15:30

    Justin Hryckowian Snap Shot saved by Vitek Vanecek

    ·

    UTA 4·DAL 2

  27. 3rd·15:24

    Miro Heiskanen Wrist Shot High and Wide Right

    ·

    UTA 4·DAL 2

  28. 3rd·15:02

    Giveaway by Sam Steel

    UTA 4·DAL 2

  29. 3rd·14:46

    Mikhail Sergachev hit Arttu Hyry

    ·

    UTA 4·DAL 2

  30. 3rd·14:38

    Esa Lindell hit Barrett Hayton

    ·

    UTA 4·DAL 2

Team stats

UTA

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

22

Shots

30

33.3

PCT

0.0

16

PIM

16

25

Faceoffs W

24

5

Blocks

16

18

Giveaways

17

3

Takeaways

3

Betting line

DAL -1.5·O/U 5.5·UTA +136/DAL -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 14 skaters with EDGE
  • Tyler MyersDAL · D
    SHOT MPH90.770

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · DAL favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DAL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-162

Close price

-162

Open no-vig

59.3%

Close no-vig

59.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR