Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in UTA at DAL?

The model favors DAL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3UTA

UTA

35-27-6

DAL

42-15-10

NHLMon, Mar 16FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasDAL -162

UTA · top performer

Clayton Keller

RW · #9

1Points

—

SOG

DAL · top performer

Jamie Benn

LW · #14

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. CarconeLW · #53	1	0	-1	2	5	0	0	14:22
L. CooleyC · #92	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	15:37
L. CrouseLW · #67	1	0	1	1	5	0	0	18:12
D. GuentherRW · #11	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	14:51
B. HaytonC · #27	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	16:57
C. KellerRW · #9	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	20:13
A. KerfootC · #15	0	1	1	0	2	1	0	15:23
J. McBainC · #22	1	0	1	2	1	0	5	13:23
J. PeterkaRW · #77	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	11:42
N. SchmaltzC · #8	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	21:03
B. TanevLW · #13	0	0	0	0	2	1	5	7:45
K. YamamotoRW · #56	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	10:00

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. ColeD · #28	0	0	-2	1	1	1	0	18:51
S. DurziD · #50	0	0	-2	0	1	0	2	17:43
J. MarinoD · #6	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	18:21
N. SchmidtD · #88	1	0	2	2	2	1	0	18:28
M. SergachevD · #98	0	1	1	1	2	1	0	20:29
M. WeegarD · #52	0	0	4	2	2	0	0	21:08

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. VanecekG · #41	30	3	27	.900	59:32

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BackC · #10	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:34
J. BennLW · #14	0	1	1	5	2	1	0	16:31
C. BlackwellC · #15	0	0	-2	0	5	1	0	12:51
M. BourqueC · #22	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	18:07
M. BuntingLW · #58	0	0	-2	1	1	0	2	13:28
M. DucheneC · #95	0	0	-2	1	2	1	0	19:22
A. ErneLW · #73	1	0	0	1	1	0	5	7:34
J. HryckowianC · #49	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	12:48
A. HyryRW · #25	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	11:31
W. JohnstonC · #53	1	0	-1	3	2	2	0	20:24
J. RobertsonLW · #21	0	1	-1	3	1	0	0	19:56
S. SteelC · #18	1	0	0	2	2	0	2	16:57

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. BichselD · #6	0	0	0	1	4	0	5	15:50
T. HarleyD · #55	0	0	-3	4	1	2	0	21:15
M. HeiskanenD · #4	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	25:08
E. LindellD · #23	0	1	2	1	2	1	0	22:03
N. LundkvistD · #5	0	0	-4	2	1	2	0	14:32
T. MyersD · #57	0	1	1	3	0	3	0	16:52

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. DeSmithG · #1	21	5	16	.762	58:40

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

UTA

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Nov 29

UTA3@

DAL4

Jan 16

DAL1@

UTA2

Feb 1

DAL3@

UTA2

Mar 17

UTA6@

DAL3today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

UTA+13642%

DAL-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 26 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

UTA beat DAL 6-3. C. Keller led the way — 1 G · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
UTA	1	1	4	6
DAL	1	1	1	3

Period scoring

UTA won 1 · DAL won 0

UTA

DAL

Play-by-play · 285 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
UTA 6·DAL 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
UTA 6·DAL 3
3rd·19:56
Arttu Hyry faceoff won against Barrett Hayton
·
UTA 6·DAL 3
3rd·19:56
Adam Erne Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Arttu Hyry (1), Tyler Myers (8)
· ·
UTA 6·DAL 3
3rd·19:47
Arttu Hyry faceoff won against Alexander Kerfoot
·
UTA 6·DAL 2
3rd·19:47
Puck in Netting
UTA 6·DAL 2
3rd·19:42
Tyler Myers Slap Shot Wide Left
·
UTA 6·DAL 2
3rd·19:41
Arttu Hyry faceoff won against Alexander Kerfoot
·
UTA 6·DAL 2
3rd·19:41
Goalie Stopped
UTA 6·DAL 2
3rd·19:39
Tyler Myers Wrist Shot saved by Vitek Vanecek
·
UTA 6·DAL 2
3rd·19:20
Arttu Hyry faceoff won against Logan Cooley
·
UTA 6·DAL 2
3rd·19:20
Lawson Crouse Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (36)
·
UTA 6·DAL 2
3rd·19:07
Barrett Hayton shot blocked by Nils Lundkvist
·
UTA 5·DAL 2
3rd·18:57
Nils Lundkvist Wrist Shot saved by Vitek Vanecek
·
UTA 5·DAL 2
3rd·17:41
Thomas Harley hit Dylan Guenther
·
UTA 5·DAL 2
3rd·17:12
Nick Schmaltz Tip-In saved by Casey DeSmith
·
UTA 5·DAL 2
3rd·17:01
Nate Schmidt hit Jason Robertson
·
UTA 5·DAL 2
3rd·16:18
Giveaway by MacKenzie Weegar
UTA 5·DAL 2
3rd·16:06
Alexander Kerfoot faceoff won against Wyatt Johnston
·
UTA 5·DAL 2
3rd·16:06
Michael Carcone Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (19)
·
UTA 5·DAL 2
3rd·15:57
Thomas Harley Snap Shot saved by Vitek Vanecek
·
UTA 4·DAL 2
3rd·15:50
Giveaway by JJ Peterka
UTA 4·DAL 2
3rd·15:42
Esa Lindell Snap Shot saved by Vitek Vanecek
·
UTA 4·DAL 2
3rd·15:38
Giveaway by Logan Cooley
UTA 4·DAL 2
3rd·15:31
Miro Heiskanen Snap Shot Wide Left
·
UTA 4·DAL 2
3rd·15:30
Justin Hryckowian Snap Shot saved by Vitek Vanecek
·
UTA 4·DAL 2
3rd·15:24
Miro Heiskanen Wrist Shot High and Wide Right
·
UTA 4·DAL 2
3rd·15:02
Giveaway by Sam Steel
UTA 4·DAL 2
3rd·14:46
Mikhail Sergachev hit Arttu Hyry
·
UTA 4·DAL 2
3rd·14:38
Esa Lindell hit Barrett Hayton
·
UTA 4·DAL 2

Betting line

DAL -1.5·O/U 5.5·UTA +136/DAL -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

tah Mammoth went into Dallas Stars and beat them, 6–3.

UTA +1.5 cashed (DAL lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.5%

ensemble · DAL favored

Elo Static
64.5%
P(DAL win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
64.5%
P(DAL win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
64.5%
P(DAL win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-162

Close price

-162

Open no-vig

59.3%

Close no-vig

59.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in UTA at DAL?: The model favors DAL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Utah MammothDallas Stars

Elsewhere in the NHL