Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CGY at DET?

The model favors DET, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3DET

CGY

26-34-7

DET

37-23-8

NHLMon, Mar 16FinalSeriesDET wins series 2-0VegasDET -185

CGY · top performer

Matt Coronato

RW · #27

2Points

—

SOG

DET · top performer

Alex DeBrincat

RW · #93

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BacklundC · #11	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	17:45
B. ColemanLW · #20	0	0	-1	2	2	1	2	18:54
M. CoronatoRW · #27	1	1	1	4	0	1	0	18:33
J. FarabeeLW · #86	0	0	-1	4	2	2	0	13:44
M. FrostC · #16	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	17:50
M. GridinRW · #92	0	1	1	3	1	0	2	16:29
R. LombergLW · #70	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	9:45
V. OlofssonLW · #95	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	13:03
M. PospisilC · #76	0	0	0	2	2	0	5	9:39
Y. SharangovichC · #17	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	13:53
R. StromeC · #22	0	0	-3	0	0	1	0	16:21
C. ZaryC · #47	0	0	0	0	3	0	4	10:00

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. BahlD · #7	0	0	-2	0	5	0	0	21:07
H. BrzustewiczD · #48	0	0	-2	1	0	1	2	18:33
J. HanleyD · #44	0	0	2	0	0	1	0	17:01
O. MaattaD · #3	0	0	-2	2	0	1	0	23:22
Z. ParekhD · #19	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	17:25
Z. WhitecloudD · #28	0	0	-1	0	2	2	2	19:37

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. WolfG · #32	24	4	20	.833	57:55

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AppletonC · #22	0	0	1	0	4	0	4	10:32
J.T. CompherLW · #37	0	2	1	2	0	0	0	21:15
A. DeBrincatRW · #93	0	3	1	6	0	0	0	20:03
S. DriesC · #15	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	8:23
E. FinnieC · #58	1	0	1	2	3	0	0	17:35
P. KaneRW · #88	2	0	1	3	0	0	0	19:24
M. KasperC · #92	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	14:46
J. LeonardLW · #43	0	0	-1	0	2	2	0	9:10
D. PerronLW · #57	0	0	1	2	3	0	0	15:35
L. RaymondLW · #23	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	20:35
D. ShineRW · #65	1	0	0	1	1	0	5	9:24
J. van RiemsdykLW · #21	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	13:08

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Bernard-DockerD · #25	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	15:31
B. ChiarotD · #8	0	0	0	0	3	2	2	20:06
S. EdvinssonD · #77	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	19:35
J. FaulkD · #72	0	0	1	2	1	3	0	22:04
A. JohanssonD · #20	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	16:30
M. SeiderD · #53	1	0	1	2	0	2	2	20:35

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. GibsonG · #36	27	2	25	.926	59:49

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CGY

Away

Stat

DET

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

25.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

DET wins series 2-0

Dec 11

DET4@

CGY3

Mar 16

CGY2@

DET5today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CGY+15439%

DET-18565%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -1.5↗SpreadBet DET -1.5↗

Line movement · 24 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DET beat CGY 5-2. A. DeBrincat led the way — 3 A · 6 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CGY	1	1	0	2
DET	0	4	1	5

Period scoring

CGY won 1 · DET won 2

CGY

DET

Play-by-play · 284 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CGY 2·DET 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CGY 2·DET 5
3rd·19:38
Patrick Kane Snap Shot Wide Right
·
CGY 2·DET 5
3rd·18:55
Connor Zary faceoff won against J.T. Compher
·
CGY 2·DET 5
3rd·18:55
Dominik Shine Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none
CGY 2·DET 5
3rd·18:54
Takeaway by Dominik Shine
CGY 2·DET 4
3rd·18:42
Morgan Frost Snap Shot Above Crossbar
·
CGY 2·DET 4
3rd·17:54
John Gibson shot blocked by Matt Coronato
·
CGY 2·DET 4
3rd·17:52
Matvei Gridin Wrist Shot saved by John Gibson
·
CGY 2·DET 4
3rd·17:41
Giveaway by Matvei Gridin
CGY 2·DET 4
3rd·17:18
Patrick Kane shot blocked by Zayne Parekh
·
CGY 2·DET 4
3rd·16:51
Joel Farabee hit Ben Chiarot
·
CGY 2·DET 4
3rd·16:38
Mikael Backlund faceoff won against J.T. Compher
·
CGY 2·DET 4
3rd·16:38
Goalie Stopped
CGY 2·DET 4
3rd·16:35
Justin Faulk Snap Shot saved by Dustin Wolf
·
CGY 2·DET 4
3rd·16:30
Zach Whitecloud hit Mason Appleton
·
CGY 2·DET 4
3rd·16:12
Kevin Bahl hit Dominik Shine
·
CGY 2·DET 4
3rd·16:11
Marco Kasper hit Zach Whitecloud
·
CGY 2·DET 4
3rd·15:28
Yegor Sharangovich shot blocked by Simon Edvinsson
·
CGY 2·DET 4
3rd·15:22
David Perron hit Hunter Brzustewicz
·
CGY 2·DET 4
3rd·15:05
Takeaway by Lucas Raymond
CGY 2·DET 4
3rd·14:56
J.T. Compher faceoff won against Ryan Strome
·
CGY 2·DET 4
3rd·14:56
Icing
CGY 2·DET 4
3rd·14:46
Takeaway by Alex DeBrincat
CGY 2·DET 4
3rd·14:30
Mikael Backlund Tip-In Wide Right
·
CGY 2·DET 4
3rd·14:16
Alex DeBrincat Snap Shot Wide Right
·
CGY 2·DET 4
3rd·14:03
Patrick Kane Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
CGY 2·DET 4
3rd·14:01
Takeaway by Alex DeBrincat
CGY 2·DET 4
3rd·13:38
Kevin Bahl hit Mason Appleton
·
CGY 2·DET 4
3rd·12:52
Giveaway by Moritz Seider
CGY 2·DET 4

Betting line

DET -1.5·O/U 5.5·CGY +154/DET -185

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

etroit Red Wings held off Calgary Flames, 5–2.

DET -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Patrick Kane · DET19:420.8055.8%61.2%19:42 TOI · 0.80 iXG · 55.8% CF · 61.2% xGF
Alex DeBrincat · DET20:240.6959.1%62.3%20:24 TOI · 0.69 iXG · 59.1% CF · 62.3% xGF
Mikael Backlund · CGY17:480.4843.6%40.8%17:48 TOI · 0.48 iXG · 43.6% CF · 40.8% xGF
Matt Coronato · CGY18:360.4454.5%40.9%18:36 TOI · 0.44 iXG · 54.5% CF · 40.9% xGF
Emmitt Finnie · DET17:300.4459.3%60.9%17:30 TOI · 0.44 iXG · 59.3% CF · 60.9% xGF
Morgan Frost · CGY18:000.3550.0%30.3%18:00 TOI · 0.35 iXG · 50.0% CF · 30.3% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

John Gibson · DET25–2.926+0.3225–2 · .926 SV% · +0.32 GSAx
Dustin Wolf · CGY20–4.833-0.9320–4 · .833 SV% · -0.93 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.6%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
64.6%
P(DET win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
64.6%
P(DET win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
64.6%
P(DET win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-185

Close price

-185

Open no-vig

62.2%

Close no-vig

62.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CGY at DET?: The model favors DET, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

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