Live · 4
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FINAL+3DET
CGY

CGY

26-34-7

25
DET

DET

37-23-8

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLMon, Mar 16FinalSeriesDET wins series 2-0VegasDET -185

Recap · NHL

etroit Red Wings held off Calgary Flames, 5–2.

DET -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CGY · top performer

CGY
Matt Coronato

Matt Coronato

RW · #27

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

DET · top performer

DET
Alex DeBrincat

Alex DeBrincat

RW · #93

3Points

0

G

3

A

—

SOG

NHL · Calgary Flames at Detroit Red Wings · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
2
5
CGY26-34-7DET37-23-8
CGY

CGY

26-34-7

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
DET

DET

37-23-8

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

17

PIM

13

Season series

DET wins series 2-0

Dec 11DETDET4@CGYCGY3
Mar 16CGYCGY2@DETDET5today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CGYCGY+15439%
DETDET-18565%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -1.5↗SpreadBet DET -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DET beat CGY 5-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
CGY1102
DET0415

Period scoring

CGY won 1 · DET won 2

1
0

1

1
4

2

0
1

3

CGY
DET

Play-by-play · 284 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    CGY 2·DET 5

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    CGY 2·DET 5

  3. 3rd·19:38

    Patrick Kane Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    CGY 2·DET 5

  4. 3rd·18:55

    Connor Zary faceoff won against J.T. Compher

    ·

    CGY 2·DET 5

  5. 3rd·18:55

    Dominik Shine Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none

    CGY 2·DET 5

  6. 3rd·18:54

    Takeaway by Dominik Shine

    CGY 2·DET 4

  7. 3rd·18:42

    Morgan Frost Snap Shot Above Crossbar

    ·

    CGY 2·DET 4

  8. 3rd·17:54

    John Gibson shot blocked by Matt Coronato

    ·

    CGY 2·DET 4

  9. 3rd·17:52

    Matvei Gridin Wrist Shot saved by John Gibson

    ·

    CGY 2·DET 4

  10. 3rd·17:41

    Giveaway by Matvei Gridin

    CGY 2·DET 4

  11. 3rd·17:18

    Patrick Kane shot blocked by Zayne Parekh

    ·

    CGY 2·DET 4

  12. 3rd·16:51

    Joel Farabee hit Ben Chiarot

    ·

    CGY 2·DET 4

  13. 3rd·16:38

    Mikael Backlund faceoff won against J.T. Compher

    ·

    CGY 2·DET 4

  14. 3rd·16:38

    Goalie Stopped

    CGY 2·DET 4

  15. 3rd·16:35

    Justin Faulk Snap Shot saved by Dustin Wolf

    ·

    CGY 2·DET 4

  16. 3rd·16:30

    Zach Whitecloud hit Mason Appleton

    ·

    CGY 2·DET 4

  17. 3rd·16:12

    Kevin Bahl hit Dominik Shine

    ·

    CGY 2·DET 4

  18. 3rd·16:11

    Marco Kasper hit Zach Whitecloud

    ·

    CGY 2·DET 4

  19. 3rd·15:28

    Yegor Sharangovich shot blocked by Simon Edvinsson

    ·

    CGY 2·DET 4

  20. 3rd·15:22

    David Perron hit Hunter Brzustewicz

    ·

    CGY 2·DET 4

  21. 3rd·15:05

    Takeaway by Lucas Raymond

    CGY 2·DET 4

  22. 3rd·14:56

    J.T. Compher faceoff won against Ryan Strome

    ·

    CGY 2·DET 4

  23. 3rd·14:56

    Icing

    CGY 2·DET 4

  24. 3rd·14:46

    Takeaway by Alex DeBrincat

    CGY 2·DET 4

  25. 3rd·14:30

    Mikael Backlund Tip-In Wide Right

    ·

    CGY 2·DET 4

  26. 3rd·14:16

    Alex DeBrincat Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    CGY 2·DET 4

  27. 3rd·14:03

    Patrick Kane Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    CGY 2·DET 4

  28. 3rd·14:01

    Takeaway by Alex DeBrincat

    CGY 2·DET 4

  29. 3rd·13:38

    Kevin Bahl hit Mason Appleton

    ·

    CGY 2·DET 4

  30. 3rd·12:52

    Giveaway by Moritz Seider

    CGY 2·DET 4

Team stats

CGY

Away

Stat

DET

Home

27

Shots

25

0.0

PCT

25.0

17

PIM

13

28

Faceoffs W

19

13

Blocks

13

15

Giveaways

13

4

Takeaways

6

Betting line

DET -1.5·O/U 5.5·CGY +154/DET -185

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE
  • Moritz SeiderDET · D
    DIST MI299.899
  • Alex DeBrincatDET · RW
    DIST MI252.196
  • Emmitt FinnieDET · C
    BURSTS19394
  • Mikael BacklundCGY · C
    SHOT MPH93.594
  • Justin FaulkDET · D
    BURSTS6990

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DET win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-185

Close price

-185

Open no-vig

62.2%

Close no-vig

62.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR