Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LA at NYR?

The model favors NYR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3LA

28-24-15

NYR

28-31-8

NHLMon, Mar 16FinalSeriesLA wins series 2-0VegasLA -110

LA · top performer

Alex Laferriere

RW · #14

3Points

—

SOG

NYR · top performer

Vincent Trocheck

C · #16

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Q. ByfieldRW · #55	0	2	2	3	2	0	2	18:58
S. HeleniusC · #79	0	0	0	1	6	0	0	12:21
M. JosephRW · #17	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	13:26
A. KopitarC · #11	0	1	1	3	2	0	0	18:37
A. LaferriereRW · #14	1	2	2	3	2	0	2	18:51
S. LaughtonC · #21	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	16:04
J. MalottLW · #39	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	11:59
T. MooreLW · #12	1	0	2	2	1	1	0	18:42
A. PanarinLW · #10	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	15:42
A. TurcotteC · #15	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	10:16
T. WardRW · #52	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	11:28
J. WrightRW · #53	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	12:25

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AndersonD · #44	1	1	2	1	1	1	0	20:58
C. CeciD · #5	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	18:25
B. ClarkeD · #92	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	20:37
D. DoughtyD · #8	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	21:18
B. DumoulinD · #2	0	0	1	0	1	2	0	16:31
J. EdmundsonD · #6	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	20:08

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. KuemperG · #35	22	1	21	.955	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChmelarRW · #49	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	7:41
W. CuylleLW · #50	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	16:16
A. EdstromC · #84	0	0	-1	0	1	2	0	10:42
T. KartyeLW · #24	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	12:35
N. LabaC · #42	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	13:19
A. LafreniereLW · #13	0	0	-2	3	0	0	0	20:41
J.T. MillerLW · #8	0	0	-2	5	0	0	0	20:33
G. PerreaultRW · #94	0	0	-2	2	0	1	0	18:21
T. RaddyshRW · #14	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	9:21
C. ShearyLW · #43	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	12:09
V. TrocheckC · #16	1	0	-2	2	4	0	2	21:33
M. ZibanejadC · #93	0	1	-2	0	1	1	0	19:45

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. BorgenD · #17	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	16:39
A. FoxD · #23	0	1	-2	2	1	0	0	23:13
V. GavrikovD · #44	0	0	-1	0	0	2	0	21:14
M. RobertsonD · #29	0	0	-1	2	0	1	2	18:24
B. SchneiderD · #4	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	20:35
U. VaakanainenD · #18	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	15:51

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. ShesterkinG · #31	25	3	22	.880	58:57

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

NYR

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

LA wins series 2-0

Jan 21

NYR3@

LA4

Mar 16

LA4@

NYR1today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LA -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

LA-11052%

NYR-11052%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LA -1.5↗SpreadBet LA -1.5↗

Line movement · 19 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LA beat NYR 4-1. A. Laferriere led the way — 1 G · 2 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
LA	1	2	1	4
NYR	0	0	1	1

Period scoring

LA won 2 · NYR won 0

NYR

Play-by-play · 283 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
LA 4·NYR 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
LA 4·NYR 1
3rd·19:58
Alex Turcotte faceoff won against Adam Edstrom
·
LA 4·NYR 1
3rd·19:58
Puck in Benches
LA 4·NYR 1
3rd·19:52
Will Borgen shot blocked by Alex Turcotte
·
LA 4·NYR 1
3rd·19:23
Alex Turcotte faceoff won against Adam Edstrom
·
LA 4·NYR 1
3rd·19:23
Off-side
LA 4·NYR 1
3rd·19:21
Samuel Helenius hit Urho Vaakanainen
·
LA 4·NYR 1
3rd·19:15
Tye Kartye Snap Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
LA 4·NYR 1
3rd·18:55
Samuel Helenius hit Conor Sheary
·
LA 4·NYR 1
3rd·18:43
Samuel Helenius faceoff won against Noah Laba
·
LA 4·NYR 1
3rd·18:43
Goalie Stopped
LA 4·NYR 1
3rd·18:41
Matthew Robertson Wrist Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
LA 4·NYR 1
3rd·18:39
Noah Laba faceoff won against Scott Laughton
·
LA 4·NYR 1
3rd·18:39
Icing
LA 4·NYR 1
3rd·18:26
Will Borgen hit Jared Wright
·
LA 4·NYR 1
3rd·18:16
Will Borgen Wrist Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
LA 4·NYR 1
3rd·18:12
Adam Edstrom faceoff won against Scott Laughton
·
LA 4·NYR 1
3rd·18:12
Trevor Moore Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Laferriere (15)
·
LA 4·NYR 1
3rd·17:55
Giveaway by Quinton Byfield
LA 3·NYR 1
3rd·17:46
J.T. Miller faceoff won against Quinton Byfield
·
LA 3·NYR 1
3rd·17:46
Off-side
LA 3·NYR 1
3rd·17:32
Giveaway by Mika Zibanejad
LA 3·NYR 1
3rd·17:24
Scott Laughton hit Vincent Trocheck
·
LA 3·NYR 1
3rd·17:17
J.T. Miller faceoff won against Anze Kopitar
·
LA 3·NYR 1
3rd·17:17
Goalie Stopped
LA 3·NYR 1
3rd·17:15
Alex Laferriere Wrist Shot saved by Igor Shesterkin
·
LA 3·NYR 1
3rd·16:28
Gabe Perreault Tip-In Wide Right
·
LA 3·NYR 1
3rd·16:16
Alexis Lafrenière Wrist Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
LA 3·NYR 1
3rd·15:09
Brian Dumoulin hit Vincent Trocheck
·
LA 3·NYR 1

Betting line

LA -1.5·O/U 5.5·LA -110/NYR -110

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

os Angeles Kings went into New York Rangers and beat them, 4–1.

LA -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Jeff Malott · LAK11:540.6145.0%71.7%11:54 TOI · 0.61 iXG · 45.0% CF · 71.7% xGF
Alexis Lafrenière · NYR20:420.5353.1%63.1%20:42 TOI · 0.53 iXG · 53.1% CF · 63.1% xGF
Gabe Perreault · NYR18:420.5146.4%56.0%18:42 TOI · 0.51 iXG · 46.4% CF · 56.0% xGF
Quinton Byfield · LAK19:000.4950.0%52.6%19:00 TOI · 0.49 iXG · 50.0% CF · 52.6% xGF
J.T. Miller · NYR20:540.4753.3%42.7%20:54 TOI · 0.47 iXG · 53.3% CF · 42.7% xGF
Anze Kopitar · LAK18:300.4353.6%68.9%18:30 TOI · 0.43 iXG · 53.6% CF · 68.9% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Darcy Kuemper · LAK21–1.955+0.9221–1 · .955 SV% · +0.92 GSAx
Igor Shesterkin · NYR22–3.880-0.1522–3 · .880 SV% · -0.15 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.6%

ensemble · NYR favored

Elo Static
58.6%
P(NYR win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
58.6%
P(NYR win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
58.6%
P(NYR win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-110

Close price

-110

Open no-vig

50.0%

Close no-vig

50.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LA at NYR?: The model favors NYR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Los Angeles KingsNew York Rangers

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