Mar 28, 26sim 98
211
19(H)5
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+3LA
LA
28-24-15
41
NYR
28-31-8
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NHL
os Angeles Kings went into New York Rangers and beat them, 4–1.
LA -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LA · top performer
Alex Laferriere
RW · #14
3Points
1
G
2
A
—
SOG
NYR · top performer
Vincent Trocheck
C · #16
1Points
1
G
0
A
—
SOG
NHL · Los Angeles Kings at New York Rangers · final
NHL · Box scoreEDGE
Final
LA28-24-15
41
NYR28-31-8
LA28-24-15NYR28-31-8
LA
28-24-15
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
NYR
28-31-8
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
4
PIM
4
Season series
LA wins series 2-0
Jan 21NYR3@LA4
NYR3@LA4Mar 16LA4@NYR1today
LA4@NYR1todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
LA -1.5
Total
5.5
Defensive · -3.0 vs avg
Moneyline
LA-11052%NYR-11052%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 9 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
5.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
LA beat NYR 4-1.
Last play
Game End
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| NYR | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Period scoring
LA won 2 · NYR won 0
1
0
1
2
0
2
1
1
3
LA
NYR
Play-by-play · 283 plays
period
event
player
- 3rd·20:00
Game End
LA 4·NYR 1
- 3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
LA 4·NYR 1
- 3rd·19:58
Alex Turcotte faceoff won against Adam Edstrom
·
LA 4·NYR 1
- 3rd·19:58
Puck in Benches
LA 4·NYR 1
- 3rd·19:52
Will Borgen shot blocked by Alex Turcotte
·
LA 4·NYR 1
- 3rd·19:23
Alex Turcotte faceoff won against Adam Edstrom
·
LA 4·NYR 1
- 3rd·19:23
Off-side
LA 4·NYR 1
- 3rd·19:21
Samuel Helenius hit Urho Vaakanainen
·
LA 4·NYR 1
- 3rd·19:15
Tye Kartye Snap Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
LA 4·NYR 1
- 3rd·18:55
Samuel Helenius hit Conor Sheary
·
LA 4·NYR 1
- 3rd·18:43
Samuel Helenius faceoff won against Noah Laba
·
LA 4·NYR 1
- 3rd·18:43
Goalie Stopped
LA 4·NYR 1
- 3rd·18:41
Matthew Robertson Wrist Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
LA 4·NYR 1
- 3rd·18:39
Noah Laba faceoff won against Scott Laughton
·
LA 4·NYR 1
- 3rd·18:39
Icing
LA 4·NYR 1
- 3rd·18:26
Will Borgen hit Jared Wright
·
LA 4·NYR 1
- 3rd·18:16
Will Borgen Wrist Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
LA 4·NYR 1
- 3rd·18:12
Adam Edstrom faceoff won against Scott Laughton
·
LA 4·NYR 1
- 3rd·18:12
Trevor Moore Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Laferriere (15)
·
LA 4·NYR 1
- 3rd·17:55
Giveaway by Quinton Byfield
LA 3·NYR 1
- 3rd·17:46
J.T. Miller faceoff won against Quinton Byfield
·
LA 3·NYR 1
- 3rd·17:46
Off-side
LA 3·NYR 1
- 3rd·17:32
Giveaway by Mika Zibanejad
LA 3·NYR 1
- 3rd·17:24
Scott Laughton hit Vincent Trocheck
·
LA 3·NYR 1
- 3rd·17:17
J.T. Miller faceoff won against Anze Kopitar
·
LA 3·NYR 1
- 3rd·17:17
Goalie Stopped
LA 3·NYR 1
- 3rd·17:15
Alex Laferriere Wrist Shot saved by Igor Shesterkin
·
LA 3·NYR 1
- 3rd·16:28
Gabe Perreault Tip-In Wide Right
·
LA 3·NYR 1
- 3rd·16:16
Alexis Lafrenière Wrist Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
LA 3·NYR 1
- 3rd·15:09
Brian Dumoulin hit Vincent Trocheck
·
LA 3·NYR 1
Team stats
LA
Away
Stat
NYR
Home
26
Shots
22
50.0
PCT
50.0
4
PIM
4
22
Faceoffs W
23
12
Blocks
12
14
Giveaways
20
5
Takeaways
4
Betting line
LA -1.5·O/U 5.5·LA -110/NYR -110
NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 14 skaters with EDGE
J.T. MillerNYR · LWSHOT MPH102.699+
Adam EdstromNYR · CSKATE MPH23.898
Vladislav GavrikovNYR · DDIST MI263.494- Noah LabaNYR · CBURSTS17992
Jaroslav ChmelarNYR · RWSKATE MPH23.291
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.6%
ensemble · NYR favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYR win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYR win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYR win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
-110
Close price
-110
Open no-vig
50.0%
Close no-vig
50.0%
Line barely moved · Graded: miss
Player projections
NYR vs LA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
141
projections · 126 high confidence
Shots on goal
- Alex LaferriereLA3.0± 1.6high
- Quinton ByfieldLA3.0± 2.2high
- Trevor MooreLA2.6± 2.0high
Goals
- Adrian KempeLA0.5± 0.7high
- Quinton ByfieldLA0.4± 0.7high
- Gabe PerreaultNYR0.4± 1.0high
Points
- Adam FoxNYR1.2± 1.0high
- J.T. MillerNYR1.0± 1.0high
- Mika ZibanejadNYR0.9± 1.0high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands