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FINAL+3PHI
WSH

WSH

32-27-7

14
PHI

PHI

30-23-11

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLWed, Mar 11FinalSeriesPHI leads series 2-1VegasWSH -142

Recap · NHL

hiladelphia Flyers held off Washington Capitals, 4–1.

PHI +1.5 cashed (WSH lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

WSH
Pierre-Luc Dubois

Pierre-Luc Dubois

LW · #80

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

PHI · top performer

PHI
Noah Cates

Noah Cates

LW · #27

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Washington Capitals at Philadelphia Flyers · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
1
4
WSH32-27-7PHI30-23-11
WSH

WSH

32-27-7

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
PHI

PHI

30-23-11

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

PIM

14

Season series

PHI leads series 2-1

Feb 4WSHWSH2@PHIPHI4
Feb 26PHIPHI1@WSHWSH3
Mar 11WSHWSH1@PHIPHI4today
Mar 31PHIPHI4@WSHWSH6

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

WSH -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WSHWSH-14259%
PHIPHI+12045%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHI beat WSH 4-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
WSH1001
PHI0224

Period scoring

WSH won 1 · PHI won 2

1
0

1

0
2

2

0
2

3

WSH
PHI

Play-by-play · 293 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    WSH 1·PHI 4

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    WSH 1·PHI 4

  3. 3rd·20:00

    Nikita Grebenkin Roughing against Brandon Duhaime

    ·

    WSH 1·PHI 4

  4. 3rd·20:00

    Nikita Grebenkin Roughing against Brandon Duhaime

    ·

    WSH 1·PHI 4

  5. 3rd·20:00

    Brandon Duhaime Roughing against Nikita Grebenkin

    ·

    WSH 1·PHI 4

  6. 3rd·19:38

    Noah Juulsen hit Ryan Leonard

    ·

    WSH 1·PHI 4

  7. 3rd·19:23

    Ryan Leonard hit Nikita Grebenkin

    ·

    WSH 1·PHI 4

  8. 3rd·19:19

    Timothy Liljegren Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    WSH 1·PHI 4

  9. 3rd·19:18

    Justin Sourdif faceoff won against Sean Couturier

    ·

    WSH 1·PHI 4

  10. 3rd·19:18

    Puck in Netting

    WSH 1·PHI 4

  11. 3rd·19:16

    Timothy Liljegren shot blocked by Noah Juulsen

    ·

    WSH 1·PHI 4

  12. 3rd·18:57

    Carl Grundstrom faceoff won against Hendrix Lapierre

    ·

    WSH 1·PHI 4

  13. 3rd·18:57

    Owen Tippett Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (25), Noah Cates (22)

    · ·

    WSH 1·PHI 4

  14. 3rd·18:38

    Alex Ovechkin Slap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    WSH 1·PHI 3

  15. 3rd·18:37

    Dylan Strome faceoff won against Christian Dvorak

    ·

    WSH 1·PHI 3

  16. 3rd·18:37

    Puck in Netting

    WSH 1·PHI 3

  17. 3rd·17:54

    Dylan Strome faceoff won against Sean Couturier

    ·

    WSH 1·PHI 3

  18. 3rd·17:54

    Off-side

    WSH 1·PHI 3

  19. 3rd·17:37

    Alex Ovechkin Slap Shot saved by Samuel Ersson

    ·

    WSH 1·PHI 3

  20. 3rd·17:33

    Pierre-Luc Dubois faceoff won against Christian Dvorak

    ·

    WSH 1·PHI 3

  21. 3rd·17:33

    Icing

    WSH 1·PHI 3

  22. 3rd·17:30

    Alex Bump Wrist Shot Wide Left

    WSH 1·PHI 3

  23. 3rd·17:00

    Justin Sourdif faceoff won against Christian Dvorak

    ·

    WSH 1·PHI 3

  24. 3rd·17:00

    Goalie Stopped

    WSH 1·PHI 3

  25. 3rd·16:58

    Owen Tippett Backhand saved by Logan Thompson

    ·

    WSH 1·PHI 3

  26. 3rd·16:31

    Noah Cates faceoff won against Justin Sourdif

    ·

    WSH 1·PHI 3

  27. 3rd·16:31

    Puck in Benches

    WSH 1·PHI 3

  28. 3rd·16:09

    Sean Couturier faceoff won against Tom Wilson

    ·

    WSH 1·PHI 3

  29. 3rd·16:09

    High Stick

    WSH 1·PHI 3

  30. 3rd·15:53

    Rasmus Sandin Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    WSH 1·PHI 3

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

23

Shots

22

33.3

PCT

0.0

10

PIM

14

31

Faceoffs W

25

11

Blocks

16

10

Giveaways

11

3

Takeaways

3

Betting line

WSH -1.5·O/U 5.5·WSH -142/PHI +120

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Ryan LeonardWSH · RW
    SKATE MPH24.399
  • Alex OvechkinWSH · LW
    SHOT MPH97.399
  • Jamie DrysdalePHI · D
    SKATE MPH23.098
  • Ethen FrankWSH · C
    BURSTS22797
  • Travis SanheimPHI · D
    SKATE MPH22.795

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PHI win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+120

Close price

+120

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR