Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at PHI?

The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3PHI

WSH

32-27-7

PHI

30-23-11

NHLWed, Mar 11FinalSeriesPHI leads series 2-1VegasWSH -142

WSH · top performer

Alex Ovechkin

LW · #8

1Points

—

SOG

PHI · top performer

Owen Tippett

RW · #74

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. BeauvillierLW · #72	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:27
P. DuboisLW · #80	0	1	-2	0	0	1	0	18:10
B. DuhaimeRW · #22	0	0	0	1	3	0	4	8:10
E. FrankC · #53	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	8:46
H. LapierreC · #29	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	6:55
R. LeonardRW · #9	1	0	-2	2	4	0	0	14:35
C. McMichaelC · #24	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	16:31
A. OvechkinLW · #8	0	1	-1	5	2	0	0	15:45
A. ProtasC · #21	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	18:03
J. SourdifRW · #34	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	17:32
D. StromeC · #17	0	0	-3	0	0	0	0	18:38
T. WilsonRW · #43	0	0	-2	2	6	1	2	21:39

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChychrunD · #6	0	0	-4	1	0	0	2	24:44
M. FehervaryD · #42	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	19:09
T. LiljegrenD · #27	0	0	0	1	0	4	2	14:48
M. RoyD · #3	0	0	-1	2	1	1	0	19:54
R. SandinD · #38	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	19:19
T. van RiemsdykD · #57	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	16:25

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. ThompsonG · #48	21	3	18	.857	58:30

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. BarkeyC · #52	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	11:36
A. BumpLW · #20	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	12:14
N. CatesLW · #27	0	2	2	0	1	2	0	11:28
S. CouturierC · #14	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	15:24
C. DvorakC · #22	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	19:44
L. GlendeningC · #41	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	12:10
N. GrebenkinRW · #29	0	0	0	1	1	2	6	14:44
C. GrundstromRW · #91	0	1	2	0	4	0	0	12:00
T. KonecnyRW · #11	1	0	1	1	1	0	2	19:01
M. MichkovRW · #39	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:46
O. TippettRW · #74	1	1	2	6	2	0	0	16:40
T. ZegrasC · #46	1	0	3	3	0	1	2	16:22

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DrysdaleD · #9	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	21:59
N. JuulsenD · #47	0	0	1	0	2	2	0	11:15
R. RistolainenD · #55	0	0	2	1	1	5	2	21:51
T. SanheimD · #6	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	24:01
N. SeelerD · #24	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:47
C. YorkD · #8	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	23:10

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. ErssonG · #33	23	1	22	.957	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

PHI leads series 2-1

Feb 4

WSH2@

PHI4

Feb 26

PHI1@

WSH3

Mar 11

WSH1@

PHI4today

Mar 31

PHI4@

WSH6

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

WSH -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WSH-14259%

PHI+12045%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗

Line movement · 22 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHI beat WSH 4-1. O. Tippett led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 6 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
WSH	1	0	0	1
PHI	0	2	2	4

Period scoring

WSH won 1 · PHI won 2

WSH

PHI

Play-by-play · 293 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
WSH 1·PHI 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
WSH 1·PHI 4
3rd·20:00
Nikita Grebenkin Roughing against Brandon Duhaime
·
WSH 1·PHI 4
3rd·20:00
Nikita Grebenkin Roughing against Brandon Duhaime
·
WSH 1·PHI 4
3rd·20:00
Brandon Duhaime Roughing against Nikita Grebenkin
·
WSH 1·PHI 4
3rd·19:38
Noah Juulsen hit Ryan Leonard
·
WSH 1·PHI 4
3rd·19:23
Ryan Leonard hit Nikita Grebenkin
·
WSH 1·PHI 4
3rd·19:19
Timothy Liljegren Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
WSH 1·PHI 4
3rd·19:18
Justin Sourdif faceoff won against Sean Couturier
·
WSH 1·PHI 4
3rd·19:18
Puck in Netting
WSH 1·PHI 4
3rd·19:16
Timothy Liljegren shot blocked by Noah Juulsen
·
WSH 1·PHI 4
3rd·18:57
Carl Grundstrom faceoff won against Hendrix Lapierre
·
WSH 1·PHI 4
3rd·18:57
Owen Tippett Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (25), Noah Cates (22)
· ·
WSH 1·PHI 4
3rd·18:38
Alex Ovechkin Slap Shot Wide Left
·
WSH 1·PHI 3
3rd·18:37
Dylan Strome faceoff won against Christian Dvorak
·
WSH 1·PHI 3
3rd·18:37
Puck in Netting
WSH 1·PHI 3
3rd·17:54
Dylan Strome faceoff won against Sean Couturier
·
WSH 1·PHI 3
3rd·17:54
Off-side
WSH 1·PHI 3
3rd·17:37
Alex Ovechkin Slap Shot saved by Samuel Ersson
·
WSH 1·PHI 3
3rd·17:33
Pierre-Luc Dubois faceoff won against Christian Dvorak
·
WSH 1·PHI 3
3rd·17:33
Icing
WSH 1·PHI 3
3rd·17:30
Alex Bump Wrist Shot Wide Left
WSH 1·PHI 3
3rd·17:00
Justin Sourdif faceoff won against Christian Dvorak
·
WSH 1·PHI 3
3rd·17:00
Goalie Stopped
WSH 1·PHI 3
3rd·16:58
Owen Tippett Backhand saved by Logan Thompson
·
WSH 1·PHI 3
3rd·16:31
Noah Cates faceoff won against Justin Sourdif
·
WSH 1·PHI 3
3rd·16:31
Puck in Benches
WSH 1·PHI 3
3rd·16:09
Sean Couturier faceoff won against Tom Wilson
·
WSH 1·PHI 3
3rd·16:09
High Stick
WSH 1·PHI 3
3rd·15:53
Rasmus Sandin Snap Shot Wide Right
·
WSH 1·PHI 3

Betting line

WSH -1.5·O/U 5.5·WSH -142/PHI +120

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

hiladelphia Flyers held off Washington Capitals, 4–1.

PHI +1.5 cashed (WSH lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Justin Sourdif · WSH17:480.7067.6%68.9%17:48 TOI · 0.70 iXG · 67.6% CF · 68.9% xGF
Owen Tippett · PHI16:540.5948.6%50.3%16:54 TOI · 0.59 iXG · 48.6% CF · 50.3% xGF
Alex Ovechkin · WSH15:360.5174.2%76.3%15:36 TOI · 0.51 iXG · 74.2% CF · 76.3% xGF
Tom Wilson · WSH21:540.5065.8%66.3%21:54 TOI · 0.50 iXG · 65.8% CF · 66.3% xGF
Ryan Leonard · WSH14:420.4573.9%64.1%14:42 TOI · 0.45 iXG · 73.9% CF · 64.1% xGF
Christian Dvorak · PHI19:480.3343.8%49.0%19:48 TOI · 0.33 iXG · 43.8% CF · 49.0% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Samuel Ersson · PHI22–1.957+0.8422–1 · .957 SV% · +0.84 GSAx
Logan Thompson · WSH18–3.857-0.5218–3 · .857 SV% · -0.52 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.3%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
54.3%
P(PHI win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
54.3%
P(PHI win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
54.3%
P(PHI win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+120

Close price

+120

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at PHI?: The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Washington CapitalsPhiladelphia Flyers

Elsewhere in the NHL

Canadiens3Senators2Final