Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MTL at OTT?

The model favors MTL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1MTL

MTL

36-18-10

OTT

32-23-9

NHLWed, Mar 11FinalSeriesMTL wins series 3-1VegasOTT -192

MTL · top performer

Ivan Demidov

RW · #93

2Points

—

SOG

OTT · top performer

Drake Batherson

RW · #19

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AndersonRW · #17	0	0	0	1	2	2	2	14:30
Z. BolducRW · #76	0	0	1	0	4	0	0	11:03
K. DachC · #77	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	14:14
P. DanaultC · #24	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	15:33
I. DemidovRW · #93	1	1	0	3	0	0	2	12:50
J. EvansC · #71	0	1	1	0	7	1	0	17:21
B. GallagherRW · #11	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:48
O. KapanenC · #91	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	13:34
A. NewhookC · #15	0	1	0	2	1	0	0	13:04
J. SlafkovskyLW · #20	1	0	0	1	1	3	0	19:43
N. SuzukiC · #14	0	1	0	2	0	1	0	19:45
A. TexierLW · #85	1	0	1	2	4	1	0	14:49

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. CarrierD · #45	0	0	0	0	2	4	0	15:34
N. DobsonD · #53	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	23:39
K. GuhleD · #21	0	1	-1	1	1	3	0	23:19
L. HutsonD · #48	0	1	1	2	0	3	4	23:30
M. MathesonD · #8	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	22:59
J. StrubleD · #47	0	0	2	2	3	0	0	9:12

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. FowlerG · #32	34	2	32	.941	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AmadioRW · #22	0	0	-2	2	2	2	0	16:09
D. BathersonRW · #19	2	0	1	4	6	1	2	18:55
N. CousinsC · #21	0	0	-2	0	2	0	0	13:05
D. CozensC · #24	0	0	0	5	5	0	2	17:07
L. EllerC · #89	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:04
W. FoegeleLW · #37	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:29
C. GirouxRW · #28	0	1	1	5	1	0	0	14:42
R. GreigC · #71	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	14:45
S. PintoC · #12	0	0	-2	2	1	0	2	16:36
T. StutzleC · #18	0	2	1	1	1	1	0	21:16
B. TkachukLW · #7	0	1	0	5	1	0	0	16:26
F. ZetterlundLW · #20	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	11:34

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. ChabotD · #72	0	0	-1	4	1	4	0	28:32
N. JensenD · #3	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	14:28
T. KlevenD · #43	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	19:49
N. MatinpaloD · #33	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	11:51
J. SpenceD · #10	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	20:30
A. ZubD · #2	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	20:18

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. UllmarkG · #35	23	3	20	.870	57:38

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

MTL

Away

Stat

OTT

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

MTL wins series 3-1

Nov 1

OTT3@

MTL4

Dec 3

OTT5@

MTL2

Jan 18

MTL6@

OTT5

Mar 11

MTL3@

OTT2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OTT -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MTL+16038%

OTT-19266%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗

Line movement · 22 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MTL beat OTT 3-2. I. Demidov led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
MTL	1	1	1	3
OTT	2	0	0	2

Period scoring

MTL won 2 · OTT won 1

MTL

OTT

Play-by-play · 339 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
MTL 3·OTT 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
MTL 3·OTT 2
3rd·19:57
Dylan Cozens Batted Wide Right
·
MTL 3·OTT 2
3rd·19:56
Dylan Cozens Wrist Shot saved by Jacob Fowler
·
MTL 3·OTT 2
3rd·19:55
Tim Stützle shot blocked by Phillip Danault
·
MTL 3·OTT 2
3rd·19:38
Claude Giroux Wrist Shot saved by Jacob Fowler
·
MTL 3·OTT 2
3rd·19:23
Takeaway by Dylan Cozens
MTL 3·OTT 2
3rd·19:20
Dylan Cozens Slap Shot saved by Jacob Fowler
·
MTL 3·OTT 2
3rd·18:58
Claude Giroux shot blocked by Kaiden Guhle
·
MTL 3·OTT 2
3rd·18:57
Thomas Chabot Slap Shot saved by Jacob Fowler
·
MTL 3·OTT 2
3rd·18:43
Claude Giroux Wrist Shot saved by Jacob Fowler
·
MTL 3·OTT 2
3rd·18:19
Noah Dobson shot blocked by Nick Jensen
·
MTL 3·OTT 2
3rd·18:16
Claude Giroux Backhand saved by Jacob Fowler
·
MTL 3·OTT 2
3rd·18:03
Juraj Slafkovský Wrist Shot Wide Left
MTL 3·OTT 2
3rd·17:59
Juraj Slafkovský Wrist Shot Hit Right Post
MTL 3·OTT 2
3rd·17:37
Fabian Zetterlund shot blocked by Alexandre Carrier
·
MTL 3·OTT 2
3rd·17:08
Fabian Zetterlund hit Kaiden Guhle
·
MTL 3·OTT 2
3rd·17:02
Jake Evans hit Nick Jensen
·
MTL 3·OTT 2
3rd·16:57
Ridly Greig hit Noah Dobson
·
MTL 3·OTT 2
3rd·16:42
Giveaway by Alex Newhook
MTL 3·OTT 2
3rd·16:35
Tim Stützle Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
MTL 3·OTT 2
3rd·16:17
Jordan Spence shot blocked by Lane Hutson
·
MTL 3·OTT 2
3rd·16:00
Thomas Chabot Wrist Shot saved by Jacob Fowler
·
MTL 3·OTT 2
3rd·15:56
Claude Giroux hit Lane Hutson
·
MTL 3·OTT 2
3rd·15:53
Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Claude Giroux
·
MTL 3·OTT 2
3rd·15:53
Icing
MTL 3·OTT 2
3rd·15:45
Artem Zub shot blocked by Nick Suzuki
·
MTL 3·OTT 2
3rd·15:13
Brendan Gallagher shot blocked by Nikolas Matinpalo
·
MTL 3·OTT 2
3rd·15:06
Brendan Gallagher Wrist Shot saved by Linus Ullmark
·
MTL 3·OTT 2
3rd·14:35
Claude Giroux Wrist Shot saved by Jacob Fowler
·
MTL 3·OTT 2

Betting line

OTT -1.5·O/U 6.5·MTL +160/OTT -192

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ontreal Canadiens went into Ottawa Senators and beat them, 3–2.

MTL +1.5 cashed (OTT lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Dylan Cozens · OTT17:300.7476.9%68.4%17:30 TOI · 0.74 iXG · 76.9% CF · 68.4% xGF
Ivan Demidov · MTL13:120.4859.1%69.8%13:12 TOI · 0.48 iXG · 59.1% CF · 69.8% xGF
Josh Anderson · MTL14:360.4130.3%43.6%14:36 TOI · 0.41 iXG · 30.3% CF · 43.6% xGF
Claude Giroux · OTT15:240.4062.2%52.7%15:24 TOI · 0.40 iXG · 62.2% CF · 52.7% xGF
Brady Tkachuk · FLA16:480.3465.9%64.6%16:48 TOI · 0.34 iXG · 65.9% CF · 64.6% xGF
Drake Batherson · OTT19:480.3370.0%64.0%19:48 TOI · 0.33 iXG · 70.0% CF · 64.0% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Jacob Fowler · MTL32–2.941+1.3132–2 · .941 SV% · +1.31 GSAx
Linus Ullmark · OTT20–3.870-0.3420–3 · .870 SV% · -0.34 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.9%

ensemble · OTT favored

Elo Static
55.9%
P(OTT win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
55.9%
P(OTT win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
55.9%
P(OTT win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+160

Close price

+160

Open no-vig

36.9%

Close no-vig

36.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MTL at OTT?: The model favors MTL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Montreal CanadiensOttawa Senators

Elsewhere in the NHL

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