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FINAL+1MTL
MTL

MTL

36-18-10

32
OTT

OTT

32-23-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLWed, Mar 11FinalSeriesMTL wins series 3-1VegasOTT -192

Recap · NHL

ontreal Canadiens went into Ottawa Senators and beat them, 3–2.

MTL +1.5 cashed (OTT lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MTL · top performer

MTL
Ivan Demidov

Ivan Demidov

RW · #93

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

OTT · top performer

OTT
Drake Batherson

Drake Batherson

RW · #19

2Points

2

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Montreal Canadiens at Ottawa Senators · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
3
2
MTL36-18-10OTT32-23-9
MTL

MTL

36-18-10

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
OTT

OTT

32-23-9

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

PIM

6

Season series

MTL wins series 3-1

Nov 1OTTOTT3@MTLMTL4
Dec 3OTTOTT5@MTLMTL2
Jan 18MTLMTL6@OTTOTT5
Mar 11MTLMTL3@OTTOTT2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OTT -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MTLMTL+16038%
OTTOTT-19266%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MTL beat OTT 3-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
MTL1113
OTT2002

Period scoring

MTL won 2 · OTT won 1

1
2

1

1
0

2

1
0

3

MTL
OTT

Play-by-play · 339 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    MTL 3·OTT 2

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    MTL 3·OTT 2

  3. 3rd·19:57

    Dylan Cozens Batted Wide Right

    ·

    MTL 3·OTT 2

  4. 3rd·19:56

    Dylan Cozens Wrist Shot saved by Jacob Fowler

    ·

    MTL 3·OTT 2

  5. 3rd·19:55

    Tim Stützle shot blocked by Phillip Danault

    ·

    MTL 3·OTT 2

  6. 3rd·19:38

    Claude Giroux Wrist Shot saved by Jacob Fowler

    ·

    MTL 3·OTT 2

  7. 3rd·19:23

    Takeaway by Dylan Cozens

    MTL 3·OTT 2

  8. 3rd·19:20

    Dylan Cozens Slap Shot saved by Jacob Fowler

    ·

    MTL 3·OTT 2

  9. 3rd·18:58

    Claude Giroux shot blocked by Kaiden Guhle

    ·

    MTL 3·OTT 2

  10. 3rd·18:57

    Thomas Chabot Slap Shot saved by Jacob Fowler

    ·

    MTL 3·OTT 2

  11. 3rd·18:43

    Claude Giroux Wrist Shot saved by Jacob Fowler

    ·

    MTL 3·OTT 2

  12. 3rd·18:19

    Noah Dobson shot blocked by Nick Jensen

    ·

    MTL 3·OTT 2

  13. 3rd·18:16

    Claude Giroux Backhand saved by Jacob Fowler

    ·

    MTL 3·OTT 2

  14. 3rd·18:03

    Juraj Slafkovský Wrist Shot Wide Left

    MTL 3·OTT 2

  15. 3rd·17:59

    Juraj Slafkovský Wrist Shot Hit Right Post

    MTL 3·OTT 2

  16. 3rd·17:37

    Fabian Zetterlund shot blocked by Alexandre Carrier

    ·

    MTL 3·OTT 2

  17. 3rd·17:08

    Fabian Zetterlund hit Kaiden Guhle

    ·

    MTL 3·OTT 2

  18. 3rd·17:02

    Jake Evans hit Nick Jensen

    ·

    MTL 3·OTT 2

  19. 3rd·16:57

    Ridly Greig hit Noah Dobson

    ·

    MTL 3·OTT 2

  20. 3rd·16:42

    Giveaway by Alex Newhook

    MTL 3·OTT 2

  21. 3rd·16:35

    Tim Stützle Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    MTL 3·OTT 2

  22. 3rd·16:17

    Jordan Spence shot blocked by Lane Hutson

    ·

    MTL 3·OTT 2

  23. 3rd·16:00

    Thomas Chabot Wrist Shot saved by Jacob Fowler

    ·

    MTL 3·OTT 2

  24. 3rd·15:56

    Claude Giroux hit Lane Hutson

    ·

    MTL 3·OTT 2

  25. 3rd·15:53

    Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Claude Giroux

    ·

    MTL 3·OTT 2

  26. 3rd·15:53

    Icing

    MTL 3·OTT 2

  27. 3rd·15:45

    Artem Zub shot blocked by Nick Suzuki

    ·

    MTL 3·OTT 2

  28. 3rd·15:13

    Brendan Gallagher shot blocked by Nikolas Matinpalo

    ·

    MTL 3·OTT 2

  29. 3rd·15:06

    Brendan Gallagher Wrist Shot saved by Linus Ullmark

    ·

    MTL 3·OTT 2

  30. 3rd·14:35

    Claude Giroux Wrist Shot saved by Jacob Fowler

    ·

    MTL 3·OTT 2

Team stats

MTL

Away

Stat

OTT

Home

23

Shots

34

50.0

PCT

33.3

8

PIM

6

26

Faceoffs W

27

25

Blocks

11

24

Giveaways

9

5

Takeaways

6

Betting line

OTT -1.5·O/U 6.5·MTL +160/OTT -192

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Lane HutsonMTL · D
    DIST MI71.899+
  • Josh AndersonMTL · RW
    BURSTS7699+
  • Mike MathesonMTL · D
    DIST MI62.999
  • Ivan DemidovMTL · RW
    DIST MI49.298
  • Alexandre CarrierMTL · D
    DIST MI57.498

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · OTT favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(OTT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(OTT win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(OTT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+160

Close price

+160

Open no-vig

36.9%

Close no-vig

36.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR