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FINAL+1ANA
VGK

VGK

25-16-14

34
ANA

ANA

29-23-3

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSun, Feb 1FinalSeriesANA wins series 3-0VegasANA -118

Recap · NHL

naheim Ducks held off Vegas Golden Knights, 4–3.

VGK +1.5 cashed (ANA won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

VGK · top performer

VGK
Mark Stone

Mark Stone

RW · #61

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

ANA · top performer

ANA
Chris Kreider

Chris Kreider

LW · #20

2Points

2

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Vegas Golden Knights at Anaheim Ducks · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
3
4
VGK25-16-14ANA29-23-3
VGK

VGK

25-16-14

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
ANA

ANA

29-23-3

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

PIM

4

Playoff series

May 5ANAANA1@VGKVGK3
May 7ANAANA3@VGKVGK1
May 9VGKVGK6@ANAANA2
May 11VGKVGK3@ANAANA4
May 13ANAANA2@VGKVGK3
May 15VGKVGK5@ANAANA1

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ANA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VGKVGK-10250%
ANAANA-11854%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗

Line movement · 12 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ANA beat VGK 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
VGK0123
ANA1214

Period scoring

VGK won 1 · ANA won 2

0
1

1

1
2

2

2
1

3

VGK
ANA

Play-by-play · 324 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    VGK 3·ANA 4

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    VGK 3·ANA 4

  3. 3rd·19:54

    Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Ryan Poehling

    ·

    VGK 3·ANA 4

  4. 3rd·19:54

    Tomas Hertl Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (35)

    ·

    VGK 3·ANA 4

  5. 3rd·19:52

    Giveaway by Pavel Mintyukov

    VGK 2·ANA 4

  6. 3rd·19:47

    Tomas Hertl shot blocked by Mikael Granlund

    ·

    VGK 2·ANA 4

  7. 3rd·19:42

    Mitch Marner Slap Shot saved by Lukas Dostal

    ·

    VGK 2·ANA 4

  8. 3rd·19:21

    Mikael Granlund faceoff won against Jack Eichel

    ·

    VGK 2·ANA 4

  9. 3rd·19:21

    Goalie Stopped

    VGK 2·ANA 4

  10. 3rd·19:19

    Rasmus Andersson Snap Shot saved by Lukas Dostal

    ·

    VGK 2·ANA 4

  11. 3rd·19:13

    Noah Hanifin shot blocked by Jacob Trouba

    ·

    VGK 2·ANA 4

  12. 3rd·18:53

    Ryan Poehling faceoff won against Reilly Smith

    ·

    VGK 2·ANA 4

  13. 3rd·18:53

    Ryan Poehling Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Troy Terry (31), Jacob Trouba (16)

    · ·

    VGK 2·ANA 4

  14. 3rd·18:45

    Pavel Dorofeyev shot blocked by Jackson LaCombe

    ·

    VGK 2·ANA 3

  15. 3rd·18:34

    Jack Eichel faceoff won against Ryan Poehling

    ·

    VGK 2·ANA 3

  16. 3rd·18:34

    Puck in Netting

    VGK 2·ANA 3

  17. 3rd·18:01

    Alex Killorn faceoff won against Jack Eichel

    ·

    VGK 2·ANA 3

  18. 3rd·18:01

    Timeout - Visitor

    VGK 2·ANA 3

  19. 3rd·18:01

    Goalie Stopped

    VGK 2·ANA 3

  20. 3rd·17:59

    Troy Terry Snap Shot saved by Adin Hill

    ·

    VGK 2·ANA 3

  21. 3rd·17:30

    Giveaway by Pavel Dorofeyev

    VGK 2·ANA 3

  22. 3rd·16:52

    Ross Johnston hit Braeden Bowman

    ·

    VGK 2·ANA 3

  23. 3rd·16:30

    Kaedan Korczak Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    VGK 2·ANA 3

  24. 3rd·16:27

    Jansen Harkins hit Tomas Hertl

    ·

    VGK 2·ANA 3

  25. 3rd·16:00

    Noah Hanifin hit Cutter Gauthier

    ·

    VGK 2·ANA 3

  26. 3rd·15:56

    Giveaway by Alexander Holtz

    VGK 2·ANA 3

  27. 3rd·15:51

    Jack Eichel Backhand saved by Lukas Dostal

    ·

    VGK 2·ANA 3

  28. 3rd·15:38

    Alexander Holtz hit Mason McTavish

    ·

    VGK 2·ANA 3

  29. 3rd·15:17

    Jacob Trouba Slap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    VGK 2·ANA 3

  30. 3rd·15:12

    Jackson LaCombe Wrist Shot Hit Left Post

    ·

    VGK 2·ANA 3

Team stats

VGK

Away

Stat

ANA

Home

31

Shots

23

0.0

PCT

50.0

4

PIM

4

30

Faceoffs W

32

10

Blocks

16

20

Giveaways

15

3

Takeaways

6

Betting line

ANA -1.5·O/U 6.5·VGK -102/ANA -118

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Jack EichelVGK · C
    DIST MI58.999+
  • Shea TheodoreVGK · D
    SKATE MPH23.399
  • Ryan PoehlingANA · C
    SKATE MPH23.498
  • Noah HanifinVGK · D
    BURSTS1998
  • Rasmus AnderssonVGK · D
    DIST MI54.196

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · ANA favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(ANA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(ANA win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(ANA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-118

Close price

-118

Open no-vig

51.7%

Close no-vig

51.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR