Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at CBJ?

The model favors CBJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2CBJ

PHI

24-19-9

CBJ

25-20-7

NHLWed, Jan 28FinalSeriesCBJ lead series 1-0VegasCBJ -115

PHI · top performer

Travis Konecny

RW · #11

3Points

—

SOG

CBJ · top performer

Mathieu Olivier

RW · #24

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. BarkeyC · #52	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:12
B. BrinkRW · #10	0	0	-2	0	2	1	0	15:52
N. CatesLW · #27	0	0	-1	0	3	1	0	14:50
S. CouturierC · #14	0	0	-2	2	3	1	0	15:41
C. DvorakC · #22	0	1	0	3	0	2	2	21:59
N. GrebenkinRW · #29	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	10:16
C. GrundstromRW · #91	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	9:54
T. KonecnyRW · #11	3	0	1	3	1	1	0	21:30
M. MichkovRW · #39	0	0	-1	3	0	2	0	15:31
L. PedersonC · #25	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	6:48
O. TippettRW · #74	0	0	-1	2	1	1	0	18:08
T. ZegrasC · #46	0	0	-1	6	2	0	0	21:20

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DrysdaleD · #9	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	26:46
N. JuulsenD · #47	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	15:18
R. RistolainenD · #55	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	1:01
T. SanheimD · #6	0	1	-3	0	1	3	2	23:36
N. SeelerD · #24	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	20:11
C. YorkD · #8	0	1	-2	4	0	2	0	23:53

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. VladarG · #80	30	4	26	.867	57:14

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CoyleC · #3	1	1	1	1	2	0	0	18:35
A. FantilliC · #19	0	1	1	4	2	0	0	17:09
B. JennerC · #38	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	17:46
K. JohnsonC · #91	0	1	1	2	1	0	2	12:36
I. LundestromC · #21	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	12:00
K. MarchenkoRW · #86	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	17:47
M. MarchmentLW · #17	0	0	-1	1	0	0	2	16:46
S. MonahanC · #23	1	0	-1	1	0	1	0	17:59
M. OlivierRW · #24	1	1	2	2	3	1	0	14:04
C. SillingerC · #4	0	2	1	1	1	0	2	14:10
D. VoronkovLW · #10	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	8:38
M. WoodLW · #11	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	7:30

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. GudbransonD · #44	1	0	1	2	1	0	2	18:35
D. MateychukD · #5	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	16:57
I. ProvorovD · #9	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	22:22
D. SeversonD · #78	0	1	2	2	1	1	0	22:18
Z. WerenskiD · #8	0	2	0	2	0	1	0	22:58
E. ZamulaD · #6	0	0	1	2	1	3	0	13:38

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. MerzlikinsG · #90	27	3	24	.889	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

CBJ

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

CBJ lead series 1-0

Jan 29

PHI3@

CBJ5today

Mar 14

CBJ2@

PHI1

Mar 24

CBJ3@

PHI2

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CBJ -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PHI-10551%

CBJ-11553%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CBJ -1.5↗SpreadBet CBJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 15 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CBJ beat PHI 5-3. M. Olivier led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
PHI	1	0	2	3
CBJ	2	1	2	5

Period scoring

PHI won 0 · CBJ won 2

PHI

CBJ

Play-by-play · 297 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
PHI 3·CBJ 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
PHI 3·CBJ 5
3rd·19:58
Charlie Coyle faceoff won against Christian Dvorak
·
PHI 3·CBJ 5
3rd·19:58
Goalie Stopped
PHI 3·CBJ 5
3rd·19:56
Christian Dvorak Snap Shot saved by Elvis Merzlikins
·
PHI 3·CBJ 5
3rd·19:55
Owen Tippett Wrist Shot saved by Elvis Merzlikins
·
PHI 3·CBJ 5
3rd·19:49
Owen Tippett Wrist Shot Hit Left Post
·
PHI 3·CBJ 5
3rd·19:48
Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Charlie Coyle
·
PHI 3·CBJ 5
3rd·19:48
Erik Gudbranson Interference against Bobby Brink
·
PHI 3·CBJ 5
3rd·19:46
Owen Tippett Tip-In Wide Right
·
PHI 3·CBJ 5
3rd·19:19
Jamie Drysdale Slap Shot Above Crossbar
·
PHI 3·CBJ 5
3rd·19:11
Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Sean Monahan
·
PHI 3·CBJ 5
3rd·19:11
Goalie Stopped
PHI 3·CBJ 5
3rd·19:11
Sean Couturier Snap Shot saved by Elvis Merzlikins
·
PHI 3·CBJ 5
3rd·19:04
Giveaway by Egor Zamula
PHI 3·CBJ 5
3rd·19:01
Miles Wood hit Travis Sanheim
·
PHI 3·CBJ 5
3rd·18:54
Sean Couturier faceoff won against Isac Lundeström
·
PHI 3·CBJ 5
3rd·18:54
Mathieu Olivier Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (17)
·
PHI 3·CBJ 5
3rd·18:52
Takeaway by Cam York
PHI 3·CBJ 4
3rd·18:49
Cole Sillinger shot blocked by Bobby Brink
·
PHI 3·CBJ 4
3rd·18:31
Cam York Wrist Shot saved by Elvis Merzlikins
·
PHI 3·CBJ 4
3rd·17:53
Jamie Drysdale hit Ivan Provorov
·
PHI 3·CBJ 4
3rd·17:34
Trevor Zegras Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
PHI 3·CBJ 4
3rd·17:19
Charlie Coyle faceoff won against Christian Dvorak
·
PHI 3·CBJ 4
3rd·17:19
Icing
PHI 3·CBJ 4
3rd·17:15
Mathieu Olivier Slap Shot Wide Left
PHI 3·CBJ 4
3rd·17:14
Travis Konecny hit Erik Gudbranson
·
PHI 3·CBJ 4
3rd·17:12
Charlie Coyle faceoff won against Christian Dvorak
·
PHI 3·CBJ 4
3rd·17:12
Icing
PHI 3·CBJ 4
3rd·17:02
Isac Lundeström faceoff won against Christian Dvorak
·
PHI 3·CBJ 4

Betting line

CBJ -1.5·O/U 6.5·PHI -105/CBJ -115

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

olumbus Blue Jackets held off Philadelphia Flyers, 5–3.

CBJ -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.2%

ensemble · CBJ favored

Elo Static
58.2%
P(CBJ win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
58.2%
P(CBJ win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
58.2%
P(CBJ win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-115

Close price

-115

Open no-vig

51.1%

Close no-vig

51.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at CBJ?: The model favors CBJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

Philadelphia FlyersColumbus Blue Jackets

Elsewhere in the NHL