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FINAL+3OTT
COL

COL

35-7-9

25
OTT

OTT

25-21-7

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLWed, Jan 28FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasCOL -155

Recap · NHL

ttawa Senators held off Colorado Avalanche, 5–2.

OTT +1.5 cashed (COL lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

COL · top performer

COL
Jack Drury

Jack Drury

C · #18

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

OTT · top performer

OTT
Tim Stutzle

Tim Stutzle

C · #18

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Colorado Avalanche at Ottawa Senators · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
2
5
COL35-7-9OTT25-21-7
COL

COL

35-7-9

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
OTT

OTT

25-21-7

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

0

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jan 9OTTOTT2@COLCOL8
Jan 29COLCOL2@OTTOTT5today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

COLCOL-15561%
OTTOTT+13043%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OTT beat COL 5-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
COL0112
OTT0235

Period scoring

COL won 0 · OTT won 2

0
0

1

1
2

2

1
3

3

COL
OTT

Play-by-play · 286 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    COL 2·OTT 5

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    COL 2·OTT 5

  3. 3rd·19:41

    Giveaway by Joel Kiviranta

    COL 2·OTT 5

  4. 3rd·19:28

    Xavier Bourgault hit Joel Kiviranta

    ·

    COL 2·OTT 5

  5. 3rd·19:22

    Lars Eller Wrist Shot saved by Mackenzie Blackwood

    ·

    COL 2·OTT 5

  6. 3rd·19:19

    Xavier Bourgault shot blocked by Joel Kiviranta

    ·

    COL 2·OTT 5

  7. 3rd·19:08

    Jordan Spence hit Joel Kiviranta

    ·

    COL 2·OTT 5

  8. 3rd·18:53

    Lars Eller faceoff won against Jack Drury

    ·

    COL 2·OTT 5

  9. 3rd·18:53

    Tim Stützle Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (17), Artem Zub (15)

    · ·

    COL 2·OTT 5

  10. 3rd·18:32

    Nathan MacKinnon Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    COL 2·OTT 4

  11. 3rd·18:20

    Parker Kelly shot blocked by Artem Zub

    ·

    COL 2·OTT 4

  12. 3rd·18:07

    Parker Kelly Wrist Shot saved by James Reimer

    ·

    COL 2·OTT 4

  13. 3rd·18:06

    Jack Drury Wrist Shot saved by James Reimer

    ·

    COL 2·OTT 4

  14. 3rd·17:49

    Giveaway by Parker Kelly

    COL 2·OTT 4

  15. 3rd·17:44

    Jack Drury faceoff won against Shane Pinto

    ·

    COL 2·OTT 4

  16. 3rd·17:44

    Brady Tkachuk Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (32)

    ·

    COL 2·OTT 4

  17. 3rd·17:40

    Giveaway by Nathan MacKinnon

    COL 2·OTT 3

  18. 3rd·17:28

    Tim Stützle faceoff won against Nathan MacKinnon

    ·

    COL 2·OTT 3

  19. 3rd·17:28

    Timeout - Visitor

    COL 2·OTT 3

  20. 3rd·17:28

    Icing

    COL 2·OTT 3

  21. 3rd·17:18

    Victor Olofsson Wrist Shot saved by James Reimer

    ·

    COL 2·OTT 3

  22. 3rd·17:04

    Tim Stützle shot blocked by Nathan MacKinnon

    ·

    COL 2·OTT 3

  23. 3rd·16:57

    Michael Amadio Wrist Shot Wide Right

    COL 2·OTT 3

  24. 3rd·16:49

    Victor Olofsson Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    COL 2·OTT 3

  25. 3rd·16:32

    Nathan MacKinnon Wrist Shot Above Crossbar

    ·

    COL 2·OTT 3

  26. 3rd·16:15

    Martin Necas shot blocked by Shane Pinto

    ·

    COL 2·OTT 3

  27. 3rd·16:12

    Nathan MacKinnon faceoff won against Ridly Greig

    ·

    COL 2·OTT 3

  28. 3rd·16:12

    Goalie Stopped

    COL 2·OTT 3

  29. 3rd·16:10

    Josh Manson Wrist Shot saved by James Reimer

    ·

    COL 2·OTT 3

  30. 3rd·15:49

    Victor Olofsson Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    COL 2·OTT 3

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

OTT

Home

18

Shots

23

0.0

PCT

0.0

6

PIM

0

31

Faceoffs W

19

10

Blocks

12

16

Giveaways

13

3

Takeaways

8

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·COL -155/OTT +130

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 24 skaters with EDGE
  • Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C
    BURSTS8799+
  • Cale MakarCOL · D
    SKATE MPH23.999+
  • Parker KellyCOL · C
    SHOT MPH91.895
  • Sam MalinskiCOL · D
    BURSTS1793
  • Samuel GirardPIT · D
    SKATE MPH22.590

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · OTT favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(OTT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(OTT win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(OTT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+130

Close price

+130

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

41.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR