Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at OTT?

The model favors OTT, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3OTT

COL

35-7-9

OTT

25-21-7

NHLWed, Jan 28FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasCOL -155

COL · top performer

Parker Kelly

C · #17

1Points

—

SOG

OTT · top performer

Tim Stutzle

C · #18

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BardakovC · #93	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	4:42
G. BrindleyC · #54	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	8:43
J. DruryC · #18	0	1	-1	1	2	0	0	16:30
P. KellyC · #17	1	0	-1	2	2	1	0	14:04
J. KivirantaLW · #94	0	0	-1	0	0	2	0	11:41
A. LehkonenLW · #62	0	0	1	0	2	0	2	16:51
N. MacKinnonC · #29	0	0	-3	1	0	1	0	23:36
T. MakarLW · #16	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	5:30
M. NecasC · #88	0	0	-3	0	3	0	0	22:37
B. NelsonC · #11	0	1	-2	0	0	1	0	22:23
V. NichushkinRW · #13	1	0	-1	2	1	1	0	15:59
V. OlofssonLW · #95	0	0	-2	2	0	0	0	15:22

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BurnsD · #84	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	21:45
S. GirardD · #49	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	17:04
C. MakarD · #8	0	0	-2	4	0	3	0	27:22
S. MalinskiD · #70	0	0	0	2	1	1	2	20:52
J. MansonD · #42	0	0	-1	1	4	0	0	20:55
K. MiddletonD · #67	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	10:23

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BlackwoodG · #39	21	3	18	.857	57:41

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AmadioRW · #22	0	0	1	0	1	2	0	20:13
D. BathersonRW · #19	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	16:08
X. BourgaultRW · #53	0	0	-1	0	3	0	0	5:12
N. CousinsC · #21	1	0	1	3	3	1	0	16:44
D. CozensC · #24	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:44
L. EllerC · #89	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:14
C. GirouxRW · #28	1	0	2	4	0	0	0	17:34
R. GreigC · #71	1	0	2	1	1	0	0	18:45
S. PintoC · #12	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	22:19
T. StutzleC · #18	1	1	3	3	1	0	0	18:28
B. TkachukLW · #7	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	15:12
F. ZetterlundLW · #20	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	12:16

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. ChabotD · #72	0	1	0	2	1	2	0	21:24
N. JensenD · #3	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	17:04
T. KlevenD · #43	0	1	0	1	4	1	0	13:59
J. SandersonD · #85	0	1	2	1	4	2	0	24:43
J. SpenceD · #10	0	1	1	0	3	2	0	15:06
A. ZubD · #2	0	2	3	1	2	1	0	21:55

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ReimerG · #47	18	2	16	.889	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

OTT

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jan 9

OTT2@

COL8

Jan 29

COL2@

OTT5today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

COL-15561%

OTT+13043%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 19 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OTT beat COL 5-2. T. Stutzle led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
COL	0	1	1	2
OTT	0	2	3	5

Period scoring

COL won 0 · OTT won 2

COL

OTT

Play-by-play · 286 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
COL 2·OTT 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
COL 2·OTT 5
3rd·19:41
Giveaway by Joel Kiviranta
COL 2·OTT 5
3rd·19:28
Xavier Bourgault hit Joel Kiviranta
·
COL 2·OTT 5
3rd·19:22
Lars Eller Wrist Shot saved by Mackenzie Blackwood
·
COL 2·OTT 5
3rd·19:19
Xavier Bourgault shot blocked by Joel Kiviranta
·
COL 2·OTT 5
3rd·19:08
Jordan Spence hit Joel Kiviranta
·
COL 2·OTT 5
3rd·18:53
Lars Eller faceoff won against Jack Drury
·
COL 2·OTT 5
3rd·18:53
Tim Stützle Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (17), Artem Zub (15)
· ·
COL 2·OTT 5
3rd·18:32
Nathan MacKinnon Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
COL 2·OTT 4
3rd·18:20
Parker Kelly shot blocked by Artem Zub
·
COL 2·OTT 4
3rd·18:07
Parker Kelly Wrist Shot saved by James Reimer
·
COL 2·OTT 4
3rd·18:06
Jack Drury Wrist Shot saved by James Reimer
·
COL 2·OTT 4
3rd·17:49
Giveaway by Parker Kelly
COL 2·OTT 4
3rd·17:44
Jack Drury faceoff won against Shane Pinto
·
COL 2·OTT 4
3rd·17:44
Brady Tkachuk Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (32)
·
COL 2·OTT 4
3rd·17:40
Giveaway by Nathan MacKinnon
COL 2·OTT 3
3rd·17:28
Tim Stützle faceoff won against Nathan MacKinnon
·
COL 2·OTT 3
3rd·17:28
Timeout - Visitor
COL 2·OTT 3
3rd·17:28
Icing
COL 2·OTT 3
3rd·17:18
Victor Olofsson Wrist Shot saved by James Reimer
·
COL 2·OTT 3
3rd·17:04
Tim Stützle shot blocked by Nathan MacKinnon
·
COL 2·OTT 3
3rd·16:57
Michael Amadio Wrist Shot Wide Right
COL 2·OTT 3
3rd·16:49
Victor Olofsson Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
COL 2·OTT 3
3rd·16:32
Nathan MacKinnon Wrist Shot Above Crossbar
·
COL 2·OTT 3
3rd·16:15
Martin Necas shot blocked by Shane Pinto
·
COL 2·OTT 3
3rd·16:12
Nathan MacKinnon faceoff won against Ridly Greig
·
COL 2·OTT 3
3rd·16:12
Goalie Stopped
COL 2·OTT 3
3rd·16:10
Josh Manson Wrist Shot saved by James Reimer
·
COL 2·OTT 3
3rd·15:49
Victor Olofsson Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
COL 2·OTT 3

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·COL -155/OTT +130

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ttawa Senators held off Colorado Avalanche, 5–2.

OTT +1.5 cashed (COL lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

46.0%

ensemble · COL favored

Elo Static
46.0%
P(OTT win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
46.0%
P(OTT win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
46.0%
P(OTT win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+130

Close price

+130

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

41.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at OTT?: The model favors OTT, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

Colorado AvalancheOttawa Senators

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