Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYR at NYI?

The model favors NYI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3NYI

NYR

22-26-6

NYI

29-19-5

NHLWed, Jan 28FinalSeriesNYI lead series 3-0VegasNYI -148

NYR · top performer

Mika Zibanejad

C · #93

1Points

—

SOG

NYI · top performer

Simon Holmstrom

RW · #10

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BrodzinskiC · #22	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	10:10
S. CarrickC · #39	0	0	0	1	2	0	4	9:50
W. CuylleLW · #50	0	0	-1	1	4	0	0	14:18
N. LabaC · #42	0	1	0	0	4	1	0	14:25
A. LafreniereLW · #13	0	0	-1	2	0	0	2	13:27
J.T. MillerLW · #8	0	1	-1	1	6	0	0	19:46
B. OthmannLW · #78	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	13:48
G. PerreaultRW · #94	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	16:17
T. RaddyshRW · #14	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	13:28
M. RempeC · #73	0	0	0	0	4	0	2	9:49
V. TrocheckC · #16	0	0	-1	0	0	1	2	15:50
M. ZibanejadC · #93	1	0	-1	2	0	0	0	21:39

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. BorgenD · #17	0	1	-1	0	1	2	0	20:38
V. GavrikovD · #44	0	1	0	2	0	1	0	24:44
S. MorrowD · #60	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	13:23
M. RobertsonD · #29	0	0	-2	1	1	2	0	22:14
B. SchneiderD · #4	0	0	0	3	3	1	0	22:52
U. VaakanainenD · #18	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	13:54

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. MartinG · #41	36	5	31	.861	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BarzalC · #13	1	0	-1	5	0	3	0	20:09
C. CizikasC · #53	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:07
J. DrouinLW · #29	0	0	-1	1	0	0	2	16:23
A. DuclairLW · #11	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	16:40
M. GatcombC · #16	0	1	1	1	3	1	0	11:03
E. HeinemanLW · #51	1	0	1	4	4	0	0	17:10
S. HolmstromRW · #10	1	2	1	2	0	0	0	15:53
B. HorvatC · #14	0	1	1	1	0	0	4	17:07
A. LeeLW · #27	0	0	1	5	1	2	0	15:39
K. MacLeanC · #32	0	1	1	0	2	1	0	12:12
J. PageauC · #44	1	1	2	3	3	1	0	13:31
O. PalatLW · #81	1	1	1	2	2	1	0	11:53

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. DeAngeloD · #77	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	19:39
S. MayfieldD · #24	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	17:05
A. PelechD · #3	0	1	2	2	0	1	0	17:29
R. PulockD · #6	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	19:53
M. SchaeferD · #48	0	1	0	3	2	3	0	24:36
C. SoucyD · #4	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	16:38

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. RittichG · #33	16	2	14	.875	59:22

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

NYR

Away

Stat

NYI

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

40.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

NYI lead series 3-0

Nov 9

NYI5@

NYR0

Dec 27

NYR0@

NYI2

Jan 29

NYR2@

NYI5today

Jan 30

NYI2@

NYR1

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYI -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYR+12445%

NYI-14860%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗

Line movement · 30 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NYI beat NYR 5-2. S. Holmstrom led the way — 1 G · 2 A · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
NYR	1	1	0	2
NYI	2	3	0	5

Period scoring

NYR won 0 · NYI won 2

NYR

NYI

Play-by-play · 311 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·19:59
Matt Rempe hit Carson Soucy
·
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·19:54
Matt Rempe hit Scott Mayfield
·
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·18:16
Urho Vaakanainen shot blocked by Anders Lee
·
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·18:11
Brennan Othmann hit Carson Soucy
·
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·17:36
Braden Schneider Wrist Shot saved by David Rittich
·
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·17:22
Gabe Perreault shot blocked by Mathew Barzal
·
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·17:17
J.T. Miller faceoff won against Mathew Barzal
·
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·17:17
Puck in Netting
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·17:14
Vladislav Gavrikov Slap Shot Above Crossbar
·
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·16:54
Will Cuylle hit Matthew Schaefer
·
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·16:45
Takeaway by Vincent Trocheck
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·16:39
Will Cuylle hit Matthew Schaefer
·
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·16:34
Scott Morrow shot blocked by Matthew Schaefer
·
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·16:29
Vincent Trocheck Tip-In High and Wide Right
·
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·15:43
Scott Mayfield hit Sam Carrick
·
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·15:15
Giveaway by Anders Lee
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·15:01
Takeaway by Adam Pelech
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·14:53
Takeaway by Urho Vaakanainen
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·14:39
Giveaway by Braden Schneider
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·14:28
Carson Soucy Slap Shot saved by Spencer Martin
·
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·14:14
Carson Soucy Wrist Shot Off Crossbar
·
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·14:13
Jonathan Drouin faceoff won against Mika Zibanejad
·
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·14:13
Icing
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·13:59
Matthew Schaefer Slap Shot Short
·
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·13:56
Giveaway by Vladislav Gavrikov
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·13:18
Will Borgen shot blocked by Ondrej Palat
·
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·12:58
Emil Heineman Snap Shot saved by Spencer Martin
·
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·12:13
Sam Carrick shot blocked by Marc Gatcomb
·
NYR 2·NYI 5

Betting line

NYI -1.5·O/U 6.5·NYR +124/NYI -148

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ew York Islanders held off New York Rangers, 5–2.

NYI -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.9%

ensemble · NYI favored

Elo Static
62.9%
P(NYI win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
62.9%
P(NYI win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
62.9%
P(NYI win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-148

Close price

-148

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

57.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYR at NYI?: The model favors NYI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

New York RangersNew York Islanders

Elsewhere in the NHL