NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3NYI

NYR

22-26-6

NYI

29-19-5

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLWed, Jan 28FinalSeriesNYI lead series 3-0VegasNYI -148

Recap · NHL

ew York Islanders held off New York Rangers, 5–2.

NYI -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYR · top performer

Noah Laba

C · #42

1Points

—

SOG

NYI · top performer

Simon Holmstrom

RW · #10

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

NYR22-26-6

NYI29-19-5

NYR22-26-6NYI29-19-5

NYR

22-26-6

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

NYI

29-19-5

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

NYI lead series 3-0

Nov 9

NYI5@

NYR0

Dec 27

NYR0@

NYI2

Jan 29

NYR2@

NYI5today

Jan 30

NYI2@

NYR1

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYI -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYR+12445%

NYI-14860%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗

Line movement · 14 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NYI beat NYR 5-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
NYR	1	1	0	2
NYI	2	3	0	5

Period scoring

NYR won 0 · NYI won 2

NYR

NYI

Play-by-play · 311 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·19:59
Matt Rempe hit Carson Soucy
·
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·19:54
Matt Rempe hit Scott Mayfield
·
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·18:16
Urho Vaakanainen shot blocked by Anders Lee
·
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·18:11
Brennan Othmann hit Carson Soucy
·
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·17:36
Braden Schneider Wrist Shot saved by David Rittich
·
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·17:22
Gabe Perreault shot blocked by Mathew Barzal
·
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·17:17
J.T. Miller faceoff won against Mathew Barzal
·
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·17:17
Puck in Netting
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·17:14
Vladislav Gavrikov Slap Shot Above Crossbar
·
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·16:54
Will Cuylle hit Matthew Schaefer
·
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·16:45
Takeaway by Vincent Trocheck
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·16:39
Will Cuylle hit Matthew Schaefer
·
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·16:34
Scott Morrow shot blocked by Matthew Schaefer
·
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·16:29
Vincent Trocheck Tip-In High and Wide Right
·
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·15:43
Scott Mayfield hit Sam Carrick
·
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·15:15
Giveaway by Anders Lee
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·15:01
Takeaway by Adam Pelech
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·14:53
Takeaway by Urho Vaakanainen
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·14:39
Giveaway by Braden Schneider
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·14:28
Carson Soucy Slap Shot saved by Spencer Martin
·
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·14:14
Carson Soucy Wrist Shot Off Crossbar
·
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·14:13
Jonathan Drouin faceoff won against Mika Zibanejad
·
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·14:13
Icing
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·13:59
Matthew Schaefer Slap Shot Short
·
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·13:56
Giveaway by Vladislav Gavrikov
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·13:18
Will Borgen shot blocked by Ondrej Palat
·
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·12:58
Emil Heineman Snap Shot saved by Spencer Martin
·
NYR 2·NYI 5
3rd·12:13
Sam Carrick shot blocked by Marc Gatcomb
·
NYR 2·NYI 5

Team stats

NYR

Away

Stat

NYI

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

40.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

NYI -1.5·O/U 6.5·NYR +124/NYI -148

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE

Matthew SchaeferNYI · D
BURSTS26999+
J.T. MillerNYR · LW
SHOT MPH102.699+
Ryan PulockNYI · D
SHOT MPH103.099+
Mathew BarzalNYI · C
DIST MI274.399
Emil HeinemanNYI · LW
SHOT MPH97.399

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · NYI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYI win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYI win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-148

Close price

-148

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

57.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

NYI vs NYR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

138

projections · 120 high confidence

Shots on goal

Bo HorvatNYI
2.9± 0.9high
Kyle PalmieriNYI
2.7± 1.6high
Anders LeeNYI
2.3± 1.0high

Goals

Gabe PerreaultNYR
0.4± 1.0high
Anders LeeNYI
0.3± 0.5high
Bo HorvatNYI
0.3± 0.4high

Points

Adam FoxNYR
1.2± 1.0high
J.T. MillerNYR
1.0± 1.0high
Mika ZibanejadNYR
0.9± 1.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands