Live · 5
Free during beta —to track favorites + alerts
FINAL+6OTT
VGK

VGK

25-14-12

17
OTT

OTT

24-21-7

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSun, Jan 25FinalSeriesOTT wins series 2-0VegasVGK -148

Recap · NHL

ttawa Senators held off Vegas Golden Knights, 7–1.

OTT +1.5 cashed (VGK lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

VGK · top performer

VGK
Tomas Hertl

Tomas Hertl

C · #48

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

OTT · top performer

OTT
Stephen Halliday

Stephen Halliday

C · #83

3Points

2

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Vegas Golden Knights at Ottawa Senators · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
1
7
VGK25-14-12OTT24-21-7
VGK

VGK

25-14-12

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
OTT

OTT

24-21-7

7
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

2

PIM

4

Season series

OTT wins series 2-0

Nov 27OTTOTT4@VGKVGK3
Jan 25VGKVGK1@OTTOTT7today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

VGK -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VGKVGK-14860%
OTTOTT+12445%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OTT beat VGK 7-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
VGK0011
OTT1337

Period scoring

VGK won 0 · OTT won 3

0
1

1

0
3

2

1
3

3

VGK
OTT

Play-by-play · 313 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    VGK 1·OTT 7

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    VGK 1·OTT 7

  3. 3rd·19:46

    Tyler Kleven hit Tomas Hertl

    ·

    VGK 1·OTT 7

  4. 3rd·19:34

    Takeaway by Pavel Dorofeyev

    VGK 1·OTT 7

  5. 3rd·18:39

    Cole Reinhardt hit Jordan Spence

    ·

    VGK 1·OTT 7

  6. 3rd·18:39

    Giveaway by Lars Eller

    VGK 1·OTT 7

  7. 3rd·18:33

    Thomas Chabot Wrist Shot saved by Adin Hill

    ·

    VGK 1·OTT 7

  8. 3rd·17:53

    Lars Eller faceoff won against Tanner Laczynski

    ·

    VGK 1·OTT 7

  9. 3rd·17:53

    On-Ice Official

    VGK 1·OTT 7

  10. 3rd·17:50

    Lars Eller Backhand saved by Adin Hill

    ·

    VGK 1·OTT 7

  11. 3rd·17:21

    Jake Sanderson Wrist Shot saved by Adin Hill

    ·

    VGK 1·OTT 7

  12. 3rd·17:14

    Jake Sanderson Wrist Shot Off Crossbar

    ·

    VGK 1·OTT 7

  13. 3rd·16:53

    Mark Stone Tip-In High and Wide Right

    ·

    VGK 1·OTT 7

  14. 3rd·16:16

    Tim Stützle hit Kaedan Korczak

    ·

    VGK 1·OTT 7

  15. 3rd·16:04

    Takeaway by Thomas Chabot

    VGK 1·OTT 7

  16. 3rd·15:39

    Tyler Kleven hit Keegan Kolesar

    ·

    VGK 1·OTT 7

  17. 3rd·15:13

    Takeaway by Tyler Kleven

    VGK 1·OTT 7

  18. 3rd·15:05

    Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Ridly Greig

    ·

    VGK 1·OTT 7

  19. 3rd·15:05

    Rasmus Andersson Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (24)

    ·

    VGK 1·OTT 7

  20. 3rd·15:00

    Tomas Hertl Wrist Shot saved by Mads Sogaard

    ·

    VGK 0·OTT 7

  21. 3rd·14:56

    Rasmus Andersson shot blocked by Brady Tkachuk

    ·

    VGK 0·OTT 7

  22. 3rd·14:52

    Dylan Cozens faceoff won against Tomas Hertl

    ·

    VGK 0·OTT 7

  23. 3rd·14:52

    Goalie Stopped

    VGK 0·OTT 7

  24. 3rd·14:50

    Cole Reinhardt Wrist Shot saved by Mads Sogaard

    ·

    VGK 0·OTT 7

  25. 3rd·14:23

    Tanner Laczynski faceoff won against Claude Giroux

    ·

    VGK 0·OTT 7

  26. 3rd·14:23

    Goalie Stopped

    VGK 0·OTT 7

  27. 3rd·14:21

    Ben Hutton Wrist Shot saved by Mads Sogaard

    ·

    VGK 0·OTT 7

  28. 3rd·14:17

    Tanner Laczynski faceoff won against Lars Eller

    ·

    VGK 0·OTT 7

  29. 3rd·14:17

    Puck in Benches

    VGK 0·OTT 7

  30. 3rd·14:03

    Ben Hutton shot blocked by Thomas Chabot

    ·

    VGK 0·OTT 7

Team stats

VGK

Away

Stat

OTT

Home

20

Shots

32

0.0

PCT

0.0

2

PIM

4

28

Faceoffs W

23

16

Blocks

18

14

Giveaways

10

10

Takeaways

3

Betting line

VGK -1.5·O/U 6.5·VGK -148/OTT +124

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Jack EichelVGK · C
    DIST MI58.999+
  • Shea TheodoreVGK · D
    SKATE MPH23.399
  • Mitch MarnerVGK · RW
    DIST MI53.598
  • Noah HanifinVGK · D
    BURSTS1998
  • Rasmus AnderssonVGK · D
    DIST MI54.196

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · OTT favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(OTT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(OTT win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(OTT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+124

Close price

+124

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

42.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR