
VGK
25-14-12

OTT
24-21-7
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NHL
ttawa Senators held off Vegas Golden Knights, 7–1.
OTT +1.5 cashed (VGK lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 1.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
VGK · top performer

Tomas Hertl
C · #48
0
G
1
A
—
SOG
OTT · top performer

Stephen Halliday
C · #83
2
G
1
A
—
SOG
NHL · Vegas Golden Knights at Ottawa Senators · final
NHL · Box scoreEDGE


VGK
25-14-12
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
OTT
24-21-7
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
2
PIM
4
Season series
OTT wins series 2-0
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
VGK -1.5
Total
6.5
Defensive · -2.0 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 6 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
6.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
OTT beat VGK 7-1.
Last play
Game End
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| OTT | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 |
Period scoring
VGK won 0 · OTT won 3
1
2
3
Play-by-play · 313 plays
- 3rd·20:00
Game End
VGK 1·OTT 7
- 3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
VGK 1·OTT 7
- 3rd·19:46
Tyler Kleven hit Tomas Hertl
·
VGK 1·OTT 7
- 3rd·19:34
Takeaway by Pavel Dorofeyev
VGK 1·OTT 7
- 3rd·18:39
Cole Reinhardt hit Jordan Spence
·
VGK 1·OTT 7
- 3rd·18:39
Giveaway by Lars Eller
VGK 1·OTT 7
- 3rd·18:33
Thomas Chabot Wrist Shot saved by Adin Hill
·
VGK 1·OTT 7
- 3rd·17:53
Lars Eller faceoff won against Tanner Laczynski
·
VGK 1·OTT 7
- 3rd·17:53
On-Ice Official
VGK 1·OTT 7
- 3rd·17:50
Lars Eller Backhand saved by Adin Hill
·
VGK 1·OTT 7
- 3rd·17:21
Jake Sanderson Wrist Shot saved by Adin Hill
·
VGK 1·OTT 7
- 3rd·17:14
Jake Sanderson Wrist Shot Off Crossbar
·
VGK 1·OTT 7
- 3rd·16:53
Mark Stone Tip-In High and Wide Right
·
VGK 1·OTT 7
- 3rd·16:16
Tim Stützle hit Kaedan Korczak
·
VGK 1·OTT 7
- 3rd·16:04
Takeaway by Thomas Chabot
VGK 1·OTT 7
- 3rd·15:39
Tyler Kleven hit Keegan Kolesar
·
VGK 1·OTT 7
- 3rd·15:13
Takeaway by Tyler Kleven
VGK 1·OTT 7
- 3rd·15:05
Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Ridly Greig
·
VGK 1·OTT 7
- 3rd·15:05
Rasmus Andersson Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (24)
·
VGK 1·OTT 7
- 3rd·15:00
Tomas Hertl Wrist Shot saved by Mads Sogaard
·
VGK 0·OTT 7
- 3rd·14:56
Rasmus Andersson shot blocked by Brady Tkachuk
·
VGK 0·OTT 7
- 3rd·14:52
Dylan Cozens faceoff won against Tomas Hertl
·
VGK 0·OTT 7
- 3rd·14:52
Goalie Stopped
VGK 0·OTT 7
- 3rd·14:50
Cole Reinhardt Wrist Shot saved by Mads Sogaard
·
VGK 0·OTT 7
- 3rd·14:23
Tanner Laczynski faceoff won against Claude Giroux
·
VGK 0·OTT 7
- 3rd·14:23
Goalie Stopped
VGK 0·OTT 7
- 3rd·14:21
Ben Hutton Wrist Shot saved by Mads Sogaard
·
VGK 0·OTT 7
- 3rd·14:17
Tanner Laczynski faceoff won against Lars Eller
·
VGK 0·OTT 7
- 3rd·14:17
Puck in Benches
VGK 0·OTT 7
- 3rd·14:03
Ben Hutton shot blocked by Thomas Chabot
·
VGK 0·OTT 7
Team stats
VGK
Away
Stat
OTT
Home
20
Shots
32
0.0
PCT
0.0
2
PIM
4
28
Faceoffs W
23
16
Blocks
18
14
Giveaways
10
10
Takeaways
3
Betting line
VGK -1.5·O/U 6.5·VGK -148/OTT +124
NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
Jack EichelVGK · CDIST MI58.999+
Shea TheodoreVGK · DSKATE MPH23.399
Mitch MarnerVGK · RWDIST MI53.598
Noah HanifinVGK · DBURSTS1998
Rasmus AnderssonVGK · DDIST MI54.196
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.1%
ensemble · OTT favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OTT win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OTT win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OTT win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
+124
Close price
+124
Open no-vig
42.8%
Close no-vig
42.8%
Line barely moved · Graded: hit