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FINAL+1NSH
WSH

WSH

23-17-6

23
NSH

NSH

21-20-4

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSun, Jan 11FinalSeriesNSH leads series 1-0VegasWSH -130

Recap · NHL

ashville Predators held off Washington Capitals, 3–2.

NSH +1.5 cashed (WSH lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

WSH
Alex Ovechkin

Alex Ovechkin

LW · #8

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NSH · top performer

NSH
Steven Stamkos

Steven Stamkos

C · #91

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Washington Capitals at Nashville Predators · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
2
3
WSH23-17-6NSH21-20-4
WSH

WSH

23-17-6

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
NSH

NSH

21-20-4

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

PIM

10

Season series

NSH leads series 1-0

Jan 12WSHWSH2@NSHNSH3today
Feb 6NSHNSH2@WSHWSH4

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

WSH -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WSHWSH-13057%
NSHNSH+11048%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NSH beat WSH 3-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
WSH1012
NSH1023

Period scoring

WSH won 0 · NSH won 1

1
1

1

0
0

2

1
2

3

WSH
NSH

Play-by-play · 290 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    WSH 2·NSH 3

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    WSH 2·NSH 3

  3. 3rd·19:33

    Aliaksei Protas Wrist Shot saved by Justus Annunen

    ·

    WSH 2·NSH 3

  4. 3rd·19:32

    Aliaksei Protas Wrist Shot saved by Justus Annunen

    ·

    WSH 2·NSH 3

  5. 3rd·19:31

    Alex Ovechkin shot blocked by Nicolas Hague

    ·

    WSH 2·NSH 3

  6. 3rd·19:24

    Ethen Frank Wrist Shot saved by Justus Annunen

    ·

    WSH 2·NSH 3

  7. 3rd·19:23

    John Carlson Wrist Shot saved by Justus Annunen

    ·

    WSH 2·NSH 3

  8. 3rd·19:06

    Takeaway by Dylan Strome

    WSH 2·NSH 3

  9. 3rd·19:00

    Aliaksei Protas Wrist Shot saved by Justus Annunen

    ·

    WSH 2·NSH 3

  10. 3rd·18:41

    Ethen Frank hit Steven Stamkos

    ·

    WSH 2·NSH 3

  11. 3rd·18:32

    Dylan Strome faceoff won against Ryan O'Reilly

    ·

    WSH 2·NSH 3

  12. 3rd·18:32

    Off-side

    WSH 2·NSH 3

  13. 3rd·18:19

    John Carlson Slap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    WSH 2·NSH 3

  14. 3rd·17:36

    Steven Stamkos Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    WSH 2·NSH 3

  15. 3rd·17:15

    Anthony Beauvillier Snap Shot saved by Justus Annunen

    ·

    WSH 2·NSH 3

  16. 3rd·17:03

    Rasmus Sandin hit Michael McCarron

    ·

    WSH 2·NSH 3

  17. 3rd·16:46

    Cole Smith hit Rasmus Sandin

    ·

    WSH 2·NSH 3

  18. 3rd·16:41

    Nic Dowd faceoff won against Michael McCarron

    ·

    WSH 2·NSH 3

  19. 3rd·16:41

    On-Ice Official

    WSH 2·NSH 3

  20. 3rd·16:28

    Matt Roy Backhand Wide Left

    ·

    WSH 2·NSH 3

  21. 3rd·16:15

    Giveaway by Ryan Leonard

    WSH 2·NSH 3

  22. 3rd·16:07

    Martin Fehérváry Slap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    WSH 2·NSH 3

  23. 3rd·15:59

    Giveaway by Connor McMichael

    WSH 2·NSH 3

  24. 3rd·14:57

    Ryan O'Reilly faceoff won against Dylan Strome

    ·

    WSH 2·NSH 3

  25. 3rd·14:57

    Icing

    WSH 2·NSH 3

  26. 3rd·14:35

    Giveaway by Ryan O'Reilly

    WSH 2·NSH 3

  27. 3rd·14:17

    Nic Dowd hit Luke Evangelista

    ·

    WSH 2·NSH 3

  28. 3rd·14:11

    Declan Chisholm shot blocked by Matt Roy

    ·

    WSH 2·NSH 3

  29. 3rd·13:58

    Martin Fehervary hit Luke Evangelista

    ·

    WSH 2·NSH 3

  30. 3rd·13:22

    Connor McMichael faceoff won against Steven Stamkos

    ·

    WSH 2·NSH 3

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

NSH

Home

32

Shots

21

40.0

PCT

33.3

12

PIM

10

30

Faceoffs W

25

5

Blocks

11

14

Giveaways

17

5

Takeaways

2

Betting line

WSH -1.5·O/U 6.5·WSH -130/NSH +110

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE
  • John CarlsonANA · D
    SHOT MPH102.799+
  • Ryan LeonardWSH · RW
    SKATE MPH24.399
  • Ryan O'ReillyNSH · C
    DIST MI265.898
  • Ethen FrankWSH · C
    BURSTS22797
  • Brady SkjeiNSH · D
    SKATE MPH23.497

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · NSH favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NSH win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+110

Close price

+110

Open no-vig

45.7%

Close no-vig

45.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR