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FINAL+4PIT
PIT

PIT

25-14-11

62
EDM

EDM

25-19-8

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Jan 22FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasEDM -192

Recap · NHL

ittsburgh Penguins went into Edmonton Oilers and beat them, 6–2.

PIT +1.5 cashed (EDM lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PIT · top performer

PIT
Justin Brazeau

Justin Brazeau

RW · #16

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

EDM · top performer

EDM
Mattias Janmark

Mattias Janmark

C · #13

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Pittsburgh Penguins at Edmonton Oilers · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
6
2
PIT25-14-11EDM25-19-8
PIT

PIT

25-14-11

6
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
EDM

EDM

25-19-8

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

PIM

4

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 17EDMEDM6@PITPIT4
Jan 23PITPIT6@EDMEDM2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

EDM -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PITPIT+16038%
EDMEDM-19266%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PIT beat EDM 6-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
PIT3216
EDM0112

Period scoring

PIT won 2 · EDM won 0

3
0

1

2
1

2

1
1

3

PIT
EDM

Play-by-play · 281 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    PIT 6·EDM 2

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    PIT 6·EDM 2

  3. 3rd·19:47

    Noel Acciari faceoff won against Trent Frederic

    ·

    PIT 6·EDM 2

  4. 3rd·19:47

    Goalie Stopped

    PIT 6·EDM 2

  5. 3rd·19:45

    Jake Walman Slap Shot saved by Arturs Silovs

    ·

    PIT 6·EDM 2

  6. 3rd·19:27

    Trent Frederic faceoff won against Thomas Novak

    ·

    PIT 6·EDM 2

  7. 3rd·19:27

    Icing

    PIT 6·EDM 2

  8. 3rd·19:00

    Evan Bouchard Snap Shot saved by Arturs Silovs

    ·

    PIT 6·EDM 2

  9. 3rd·18:27

    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins shot blocked by Ben Kindel

    ·

    PIT 6·EDM 2

  10. 3rd·18:22

    Mattias Ekholm Slap Shot saved by Arturs Silovs

    ·

    PIT 6·EDM 2

  11. 3rd·18:00

    Connor Clifton Slap Shot saved by Tristan Jarry

    ·

    PIT 6·EDM 2

  12. 3rd·17:33

    Giveaway by Matt Savoie

    PIT 6·EDM 2

  13. 3rd·17:14

    Jack Roslovic faceoff won against Noel Acciari

    ·

    PIT 6·EDM 2

  14. 3rd·17:14

    Puck Frozen - Goalie

    PIT 6·EDM 2

  15. 3rd·17:01

    Jack Roslovic faceoff won against Sidney Crosby

    ·

    PIT 6·EDM 2

  16. 3rd·17:01

    Goalie Stopped

    PIT 6·EDM 2

  17. 3rd·16:59

    Brett Kulak Wrist Shot saved by Tristan Jarry

    ·

    PIT 6·EDM 2

  18. 3rd·16:56

    Brett Kulak shot blocked by Jack Roslovic

    ·

    PIT 6·EDM 2

  19. 3rd·16:50

    Sidney Crosby Deflected Wide Right

    ·

    PIT 6·EDM 2

  20. 3rd·16:38

    Mattias Janmark Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    PIT 6·EDM 2

  21. 3rd·16:36

    Trent Frederic Wrist Shot saved by Arturs Silovs

    ·

    PIT 6·EDM 2

  22. 3rd·15:20

    Ty Emberson hit Justin Brazeau

    ·

    PIT 6·EDM 2

  23. 3rd·15:15

    Giveaway by Spencer Stastney

    PIT 6·EDM 2

  24. 3rd·15:11

    Justin Brazeau shot blocked by Anthony Mantha

    ·

    PIT 6·EDM 2

  25. 3rd·15:03

    Erik Karlsson Slap Shot Short

    ·

    PIT 6·EDM 2

  26. 3rd·14:39

    Ty Emberson hit Blake Lizotte

    ·

    PIT 6·EDM 2

  27. 3rd·14:21

    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins shot blocked by Connor McDavid

    ·

    PIT 6·EDM 2

  28. 3rd·14:06

    Connor Dewar hit Ty Emberson

    ·

    PIT 6·EDM 2

  29. 3rd·13:57

    Connor McDavid faceoff won against Noel Acciari

    ·

    PIT 6·EDM 2

  30. 3rd·13:57

    Matt Savoie Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (38), Mattias Ekholm (19)

    · ·

    PIT 6·EDM 2

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

EDM

Home

23

Shots

32

0.0

PCT

0.0

4

PIM

4

23

Faceoffs W

28

10

Blocks

9

17

Giveaways

17

4

Takeaways

3

Betting line

EDM -1.5·O/U 6.5·PIT +160/EDM -192

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Jake WalmanEDM · D
    SHOT MPH99.599
  • Egor ChinakhovPIT · RW
    SHOT MPH94.799
  • Connor McDavidEDM · C
    BURSTS5498
  • Erik KarlssonPIT · D
    SKATE MPH22.897
  • Evan BouchardEDM · D
    SHOT MPH97.395

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · EDM favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(EDM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(EDM win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(EDM win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+160

Close price

+160

Open no-vig

36.9%

Close no-vig

36.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR