NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3SJ

25-20-3

FLA

25-20-3

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLMon, Jan 19FinalSeriesSJ wins series 2-0VegasFLA -185

Recap · NHL

an Jose Sharks went into Florida Panthers and beat them, 4–1.

SJ +1.5 cashed (FLA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SJ · top performer

Igor Chernyshov

LW · #92

2Points

—

SOG

FLA · top performer

Eetu Luostarinen

C · #27

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

SJ25-20-3

FLA25-20-3

SJ25-20-3FLA25-20-3

25-20-3

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

FLA

25-20-3

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

SJ wins series 2-0

Nov 9

FLA1@

SJ3

Jan 19

SJ4@

FLA1today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

FLA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SJ+15439%

FLA-18565%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet FLA -1.5↗SpreadBet FLA -1.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SJ beat FLA 4-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
SJ	0	3	1	4
FLA	0	0	1	1

Period scoring

SJ won 1 · FLA won 0

FLA

Play-by-play · 347 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
SJ 4·FLA 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
SJ 4·FLA 1
3rd·19:33
Gustav Forsling Wrist Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
SJ 4·FLA 1
3rd·19:24
Sam Dickinson Snap Shot Wide Right
·
SJ 4·FLA 1
3rd·19:22
Tyler Toffoli Snap Shot saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
·
SJ 4·FLA 1
3rd·18:44
Macklin Celebrini Snap Shot Short
·
SJ 4·FLA 1
3rd·18:17
Will Smith Snap Shot Wide Left
·
SJ 4·FLA 1
3rd·18:15
Giveaway by Jeff Petry
SJ 4·FLA 1
3rd·18:00
Giveaway by John Klingberg
SJ 4·FLA 1
3rd·17:39
Cole Schwindt faceoff won against Macklin Celebrini
·
SJ 4·FLA 1
3rd·17:39
Jesper Boqvist Hooking against Timothy Liljegren
·
SJ 4·FLA 1
3rd·17:27
Giveaway by Cole Schwindt
SJ 4·FLA 1
3rd·17:21
Cole Schwindt faceoff won against Macklin Celebrini
·
SJ 4·FLA 1
3rd·17:21
Barclay Goodrow Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none
SJ 4·FLA 1
3rd·17:14
Pavol Regenda hit Matthew Tkachuk
·
SJ 3·FLA 1
3rd·17:09
Matthew Tkachuk shot blocked by Mario Ferraro
·
SJ 3·FLA 1
3rd·16:48
Matthew Tkachuk shot blocked by Barclay Goodrow
·
SJ 3·FLA 1
3rd·16:47
Anton Lundell faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
SJ 3·FLA 1
3rd·16:47
Icing
SJ 3·FLA 1
3rd·16:39
Gustav Forsling shot blocked by Barclay Goodrow
·
SJ 3·FLA 1
3rd·16:36
A.J. Greer Snap Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
SJ 3·FLA 1
3rd·16:24
A.J. Greer shot blocked by Vincent Desharnais
·
SJ 3·FLA 1
3rd·16:23
Evan Rodrigues faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
SJ 3·FLA 1
3rd·16:23
Goalie Stopped
SJ 3·FLA 1
3rd·16:20
Sam Bennett Backhand Above Crossbar
·
SJ 3·FLA 1
3rd·16:19
Jeff Petry shot blocked by Barclay Goodrow
·
SJ 3·FLA 1
3rd·15:24
Giveaway by Matthew Tkachuk
SJ 3·FLA 1
3rd·14:52
Anton Lundell Snap Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
SJ 3·FLA 1
3rd·14:24
Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Anton Lundell
·
SJ 3·FLA 1
3rd·14:24
Puck in Netting
SJ 3·FLA 1

Team stats

Away

Stat

FLA

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

FLA -1.5·O/U 6.5·SJ +154/FLA -185

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE

Gustav ForslingFLA · D
SHOT MPH100.497
Uvis BalinskisFLA · D
SKATE MPH23.195
Sam BennettFLA · C
DIST MI239.693
Mackie SamoskevichFLA · RW
BURSTS18693
Jeff PetryMIN · D
SHOT MPH95.690

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · FLA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(FLA win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(FLA win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(FLA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+154

Close price

+154

Open no-vig

37.8%

Close no-vig

37.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

FLA vs SJ.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

141

projections · 132 high confidence

Shots on goal

Macklin CelebriniSJ
3.4± 1.1high
Sam BennettFLA
2.7± 2.1high
Sam ReinhartFLA
2.7± 1.9high

Goals

Macklin CelebriniSJ
0.6± 0.8high
Carter VerhaegheFLA
0.4± 0.7high
Cole ReinhardtFLA
0.4± 0.7high

Points

Macklin CelebriniSJ
1.4± 1.4high
Aleksander BarkovFLA
1.1± 1.1high
Matthew TkachukFLA
1.1± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands