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FINAL+1SJ
SJ

SJ

24-19-3

32
WSH

WSH

24-18-6

NHLThu, Jan 15FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasWSH -175

Recap · NHL

an Jose Sharks went into Washington Capitals and beat them, 3–2.

SJ +1.5 cashed (WSH lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SJ · top performer

SJ
Collin Graf

Collin Graf

RW · #51

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

WSH · top performer

WSH
Ryan Leonard

Ryan Leonard

RW · #9

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · San Jose Sharks at Washington Capitals · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

Defensemen

Goalies

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

PIM

6

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 4WSHWSH7@SJSJ1
Jan 16SJSJ3@WSHWSH2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

WSH -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SJSJ+14541%
WSHWSH-17564%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗

Line movement · 16 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SJ beat WSH 3-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
SJ0303
WSH0112

Period scoring

SJ won 1 · WSH won 1

0
0

1

3
1

2

0
1

3

SJ
WSH

Play-by-play · 300 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    SJ 3·WSH 2

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    SJ 3·WSH 2

  3. 3rd·19:54

    Ethen Frank hit Macklin Celebrini

    ·

    SJ 3·WSH 2

  4. 3rd·19:49

    Ethen Frank Snap Shot Hit Right Post

    ·

    SJ 3·WSH 2

  5. 3rd·19:43

    John Carlson Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    SJ 3·WSH 2

  6. 3rd·19:36

    Dylan Strome Slap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    SJ 3·WSH 2

  7. 3rd·19:06

    Giveaway by Mario Ferraro

    SJ 3·WSH 2

  8. 3rd·19:00

    Alex Ovechkin Slap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    SJ 3·WSH 2

  9. 3rd·18:40

    John Carlson shot blocked by Alexander Wennberg

    ·

    SJ 3·WSH 2

  10. 3rd·18:20

    Alex Ovechkin Slap Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic

    ·

    SJ 3·WSH 2

  11. 3rd·18:10

    Alex Ovechkin shot blocked by Timothy Liljegren

    ·

    SJ 3·WSH 2

  12. 3rd·18:09

    Dylan Strome faceoff won against Macklin Celebrini

    ·

    SJ 3·WSH 2

  13. 3rd·18:09

    Timeout - Home

    SJ 3·WSH 2

  14. 3rd·18:09

    Puck Frozen - Goalie

    SJ 3·WSH 2

  15. 3rd·18:05

    Giveaway by Alex Nedeljkovic

    SJ 3·WSH 2

  16. 3rd·17:46

    Giveaway by Dylan Strome

    SJ 3·WSH 2

  17. 3rd·17:29

    Giveaway by John Klingberg

    SJ 3·WSH 2

  18. 3rd·17:23

    John Carlson shot blocked by Adam Gaudette

    ·

    SJ 3·WSH 2

  19. 3rd·17:15

    John Carlson shot blocked by Macklin Celebrini

    ·

    SJ 3·WSH 2

  20. 3rd·17:11

    Macklin Celebrini faceoff won against Dylan Strome

    ·

    SJ 3·WSH 2

  21. 3rd·17:11

    Icing

    SJ 3·WSH 2

  22. 3rd·17:01

    Macklin Celebrini faceoff won against Dylan Strome

    ·

    SJ 3·WSH 2

  23. 3rd·17:01

    Icing

    SJ 3·WSH 2

  24. 3rd·16:51

    Matt Roy Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    SJ 3·WSH 2

  25. 3rd·16:33

    Connor McMichael faceoff won against Adam Gaudette

    ·

    SJ 3·WSH 2

  26. 3rd·16:33

    Goalie Stopped

    SJ 3·WSH 2

  27. 3rd·16:31

    Rasmus Sandin Snap Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic

    ·

    SJ 3·WSH 2

  28. 3rd·16:28

    Connor McMichael faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg

    ·

    SJ 3·WSH 2

  29. 3rd·16:28

    Goalie Stopped

    SJ 3·WSH 2

  30. 3rd·16:27

    Alex Ovechkin Tip-In saved by Alex Nedeljkovic

    ·

    SJ 3·WSH 2

Team stats

SJ

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

26

Shots

23

0.0

PCT

50.0

4

PIM

6

35

Faceoffs W

25

10

Blocks

14

22

Giveaways

13

4

Takeaways

3

Betting line

WSH -1.5·O/U 6.5·SJ +145/WSH -175

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 skaters with EDGE
  • John CarlsonANA · D
    SHOT MPH102.799+
  • Ryan LeonardWSH · RW
    SKATE MPH24.399
  • Ethen FrankWSH · C
    BURSTS22797
  • Jakob ChychrunWSH · D
    DIST MI264.495
  • Brandon DuhaimeWSH · RW
    SKATE MPH23.392

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.6%

ensemble · WSH favored

  • Elo Static

    57.7%

    P(WSH win)

    45%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    57.7%

    P(WSH win)

    10%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    58.8%

    P(WSH win)

    45%

    weight

Disagreement

0.55 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

2 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+145

Close price

+145

Open no-vig

39.1%

Close no-vig

39.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

WSH vs SJ.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

141

projections · 126 high confidence

Shots on goal

  • Alex OvechkinWSH
    3.5± 1.4high
  • Macklin CelebriniSJ
    3.4± 1.1high
  • Ryan LeonardWSH
    2.5± 0.9high

Goals

  • Macklin CelebriniSJ
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Alex OvechkinWSH
    0.5± 1.1high
  • Tom WilsonWSH
    0.5± 0.7high

Points

  • Macklin CelebriniSJ
    1.4± 1.4high
  • Alex OvechkinWSH
    1.0± 1.0high
  • Ilya ProtasWSH
    1.0± 1.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Data via ESPN · NHL API