NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+5VGK

NSH

23-21-4

VGK

24-11-12

NHLSat, Jan 17FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasVGK -218

Recap · NHL

egas Golden Knights held off Nashville Predators, 7–2.

VGK -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NSH · top performer

Luke Evangelista

RW · #77

1Points

—

SOG

VGK · top performer

Alexander Holtz

RW · #26

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
M. BuntingLW · #58	0	0	-3	6	0	0	2	15:29
L. EvangelistaRW · #77	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	17:55
F. ForsbergLW · #9	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	19:08
E. HaulaLW · #56	0	0	-3	1	2	2	0	16:27
T. JostC · #17	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	11:17
J. MarchessaultRW · #81	0	0	-3	1	0	0	0	13:38
M. McCarronC · #47	0	0	-2	3	4	1	0	12:41
R. O'ReillyC · #90	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	19:36
R. SchaeferLW · #49	0	0	-2	0	2	2	2	11:17
C. SmithRW · #36	0	0	-2	2	0	0	0	13:49
S. StamkosC · #91	0	0	-3	2	2	0	0	17:41
F. SvechkovC · #40	0	0	-2	0	0	4	0	12:25

Defensemen

defenses box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
J. BarronD · #20	0	0	-2	0	1	0	0	13:43
N. BlankenburgD · #37	0	0	-3	0	1	2	0	17:38
N. HagueD · #41	0	0	-2	3	1	0	0	20:05
R. JosiD · #59	0	2	-1	3	1	1	0	23:26
N. PerbixD · #48	0	0	-2	0	0	1	0	18:16
B. SkjeiD · #76	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	21:37

Goalies

goalies box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	SA	GA	SV	SV%	TOI
J. AnnunenG · #29	36	7	29	.806	59:52

Forwards

forwards box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
I. BarbashevLW · #49	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:30
B. BowmanRW · #42	0	1	3	0	1	0	0	12:02
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	1	0	2	5	1	0	0	17:01
J. EichelC · #9	0	1	0	8	0	0	2	18:53
T. HertlC · #48	0	1	2	1	0	2	2	16:16
A. HoltzRW · #26	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	10:58
K. KolesarRW · #55	1	1	2	1	7	0	0	13:28
T. LaczynskiC · #28	0	1	2	1	1	2	0	10:45
M. MarnerRW · #93	1	1	2	3	0	1	2	16:54
C. ReinhardtLW · #23	1	1	2	3	2	0	0	9:33
R. SmithRW · #19	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	18:04
M. StoneRW · #61	1	0	0	2	0	1	0	17:42

Defensemen

defenses box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
N. HanifinD · #15	0	0	1	1	2	4	0	23:55
B. HuttonD · #17	0	0	3	0	2	1	2	16:40
K. KorczakD · #6	0	0	3	2	1	2	0	17:46
J. LauzonD · #5	0	1	2	1	4	1	0	18:44
S. TheodoreD · #27	1	1	3	3	0	2	0	19:10
Z. WhitecloudD · #2	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	20:18

Goalies

goalies box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	SA	GA	SV	SV%	TOI
A. SchmidG · #40	29	2	27	.931	59:55

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 31

NSH4@

VGK2

Jan 18

NSH2@

VGK7today

Mar 21

VGK1@

NSH4

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

VGK -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NSH+18036%

VGK-21869%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗

Line movement · 13 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

VGK beat NSH 7-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
NSH	1	0	1	2
VGK	0	2	5	7

Period scoring

NSH won 1 · VGK won 2

NSH

VGK

Play-by-play · 334 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
NSH 2·VGK 7
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NSH 2·VGK 7
3rd·19:52
Kaedan Korczak hit Reid Schaefer
·
NSH 2·VGK 7
3rd·19:38
Fedor Svechkov faceoff won against Tomas Hertl
·
NSH 2·VGK 7
3rd·19:38
Filip Forsberg Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (28), Roman Josi (20)
· ·
NSH 2·VGK 7
3rd·19:17
Roman Josi shot blocked by Tanner Laczynski
·
NSH 1·VGK 7
3rd·18:50
Roman Josi Slap Shot saved by Akira Schmid
·
NSH 1·VGK 7
3rd·18:12
Tanner Laczynski faceoff won against Ryan O'Reilly
·
NSH 1·VGK 7
3rd·18:12
Ben Hutton Tripping against Tyson Jost
·
NSH 1·VGK 7
3rd·18:10
Jeremy Lauzon hit Tyson Jost
·
NSH 1·VGK 7
3rd·17:42
Giveaway by Ivan Barbashev
NSH 1·VGK 7
3rd·16:46
Zach Whitecloud Slap Shot saved by Justus Annunen
·
NSH 1·VGK 7
3rd·16:39
Giveaway by Michael Bunting
NSH 1·VGK 7
3rd·16:29
Zach Whitecloud shot blocked by Erik Haula
·
NSH 1·VGK 7
3rd·16:26
Erik Haula faceoff won against Alexander Holtz
·
NSH 1·VGK 7
3rd·16:26
Goalie Stopped
NSH 1·VGK 7
3rd·16:24
Reilly Smith Wrist Shot saved by Justus Annunen
· ·
NSH 1·VGK 7
3rd·15:46
Mitch Marner shot blocked by Ryan O'Reilly
·
NSH 1·VGK 7
3rd·15:45
Mitch Marner faceoff won against Ryan O'Reilly
·
NSH 1·VGK 7
3rd·15:45
Puck in Crowd
NSH 1·VGK 7
3rd·15:37
Giveaway by Tyson Jost
NSH 1·VGK 7
3rd·15:12
Fedor Svechkov faceoff won against Tanner Laczynski
·
NSH 1·VGK 7
3rd·15:12
Keegan Kolesar Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Tomas Hertl (23), Braeden Bowman (11)
· ·
NSH 1·VGK 7
3rd·14:41
Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Michael McCarron
·
NSH 1·VGK 6
3rd·14:41
Goalie Stopped
NSH 1·VGK 6
3rd·14:36
Michael Bunting Wrist Shot saved by Akira Schmid
·
NSH 1·VGK 6
3rd·14:30
Noah Hanifin Wrist Shot saved by Justus Annunen
·
NSH 1·VGK 6
3rd·14:19
Keegan Kolesar hit Nicolas Hague
·
NSH 1·VGK 6
3rd·13:43
Roman Josi Wrist Shot High and Wide Left
·
NSH 1·VGK 6
3rd·13:29
Ryan O'Reilly shot blocked by Shea Theodore
·
NSH 1·VGK 6

Team stats

NSH

Away

Stat

VGK

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

VGK -1.5·O/U 6.5·NSH +180/VGK -218

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE

Jack EichelVGK · C
DIST MI78.799+
Shea TheodoreVGK · D
DIST MI80.999+
Jeremy LauzonVGK · D
SKATE MPH23.098
Ryan O'ReillyNSH · C
DIST MI265.898
Ivan BarbashevVGK · LW
DIST MI58.098

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.5%

ensemble · VGK favored

Elo Static
57.9%
P(VGK win)
67%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
57.9%
P(VGK win)
16%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
57.9%
P(VGK win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+180

Close price

+180

Open no-vig

34.3%

Close no-vig

34.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss