NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3BUF

BOS

20-18-1

BUF

19-14-4

NHLSat, Dec 27FinalSeriesBOS leads series 2-1VegasBUF -135

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres held off Boston Bruins, 4–1.

BUF -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BOS · top performer

Morgan Geekie

C · #39

1Points

—

SOG

BUF · top performer

Peyton Krebs

C · #19

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
V. ArvidssonLW · #71	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	15:50
M. EyssimontC · #81	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	8:58
M. GeekieC · #39	0	1	-1	1	1	0	0	20:28
M. KastelicC · #47	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	12:50
M. KhusnutdinovC · #92	0	0	-2	2	0	1	0	12:36
S. KuralyC · #52	0	0	-2	3	2	1	2	11:59
E. LindholmC · #28	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	18:27
F. MintenC · #93	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	12:45
C. MittelstadtC · #11	0	0	-2	0	1	0	0	16:42
D. PastrnakRW · #88	1	0	-1	1	0	0	0	20:33
A. SteevesC · #21	0	0	-1	1	4	0	0	10:02
P. ZachaC · #18	0	0	-1	3	2	0	0	19:32

Defensemen

defenses box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
V. KolyachonokD · #74	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:36
H. LindholmD · #27	0	0	-1	3	0	2	0	23:15
M. LohreiD · #6	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	15:25
C. McAvoyD · #73	0	0	-2	1	2	5	0	24:22
A. PeekeD · #26	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	19:43
N. ZadorovD · #91	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	20:02

Goalies

goalies box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	SA	GA	SV	SV%	TOI
J. KorpisaloG · #70	33	3	30	.909	56:55

Forwards

forwards box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
Z. BensonLW · #6	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	14:28
J. DoanRW · #91	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	15:36
J. DunneC · #44	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	12:06
J. GreenwayLW · #12	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:49
P. KrebsC · #19	1	1	2	1	4	0	0	16:28
B. MalenstynLW · #29	0	0	0	0	5	2	0	13:10
R. McLeodC · #71	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	16:24
J. NorrisC · #9	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	16:21
N. OstlundC · #86	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	16:01
J. QuinnRW · #22	0	2	1	2	0	0	0	15:13
T. ThompsonC · #72	0	2	2	4	0	2	0	17:55
A. TuchRW · #89	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	18:31

Defensemen

defenses box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
J. BrysonD · #78	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:14
B. ByramD · #4	0	1	2	1	0	2	0	27:52
M. KesselringD · #8	0	0	0	5	0	2	2	15:46
Z. MetsaD · #73	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	9:41
O. PowerD · #25	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	25:29
M. SamuelssonD · #23	1	2	3	2	6	2	0	24:56

Goalies

goalies box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	SA	GA	SV	SV%	TOI
U. LuukkonenG · #1	23	1	22	.957	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Playoff series

Apr 19

BOS3@

BUF4

Apr 21

BOS4@

BUF2

Apr 23

BUF3@

BOS1

Apr 26

BUF6@

BOS1

Apr 28

BOS2@

BUF1

May 1

BUF4@

BOS1

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BOS+11447%

BUF-13557%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 12 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat BOS 4-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
BOS	1	0	0	1
BUF	0	3	1	4

Period scoring

BOS won 1 · BUF won 2

BOS

BUF

Play-by-play · 312 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
BOS 1·BUF 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
BOS 1·BUF 4
3rd·19:46
Josh Dunne faceoff won against Sean Kuraly
·
BOS 1·BUF 4
3rd·19:46
Josh Norris Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (11), Tage Thompson (16)
· ·
BOS 1·BUF 4
3rd·19:33
Pavel Zacha faceoff won against Tage Thompson
·
BOS 1·BUF 3
3rd·19:33
Goalie Stopped
BOS 1·BUF 3
3rd·19:31
Viktor Arvidsson Wrap-around saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
BOS 1·BUF 3
3rd·19:20
Alex Steeves Wrist Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
BOS 1·BUF 3
3rd·19:06
Alex Tuch hit Marat Khusnutdinov
·
BOS 1·BUF 3
3rd·18:57
Alex Tuch shot blocked by Hampus Lindholm
· ·
BOS 1·BUF 3
3rd·18:50
Fraser Minten hit Owen Power
·
BOS 1·BUF 3
3rd·18:38
Takeaway by Ryan McLeod
BOS 1·BUF 3
3rd·18:34
Viktor Arvidsson Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
BOS 1·BUF 3
3rd·18:33
Hampus Lindholm shot blocked by Mattias Samuelsson
· ·
BOS 1·BUF 3
3rd·18:28
Fraser Minten faceoff won against Ryan McLeod
·
BOS 1·BUF 3
3rd·18:28
Goalie Stopped
BOS 1·BUF 3
3rd·18:27
Elias Lindholm Wrist Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
· ·
BOS 1·BUF 3
3rd·17:39
Peyton Krebs Wrist Shot Wide Right
BOS 1·BUF 3
3rd·17:39
Takeaway by Peyton Krebs
BOS 1·BUF 3
3rd·17:27
Charlie McAvoy hit Tage Thompson
·
BOS 1·BUF 3
3rd·17:24
Peyton Krebs shot blocked by Charlie McAvoy
·
BOS 1·BUF 3
3rd·17:19
David Pastrnak shot blocked by Tage Thompson
·
BOS 1·BUF 3
3rd·17:13
Pavel Zacha faceoff won against Tage Thompson
·
BOS 1·BUF 3
3rd·17:13
Goalie Stopped
BOS 1·BUF 3
3rd·17:10
Pavel Zacha Tip-In saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
BOS 1·BUF 3
3rd·17:07
Pavel Zacha faceoff won against Ryan McLeod
·
BOS 1·BUF 3
3rd·17:07
Goalie Stopped
BOS 1·BUF 3
3rd·17:06
Elias Lindholm Slap Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
· ·
BOS 1·BUF 3
3rd·17:04
Morgan Geekie Slap Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
BOS 1·BUF 3
3rd·17:03
Peyton Krebs hit David Pastrnak
·
BOS 1·BUF 3

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

BUF

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 6.5·BOS +114/BUF -135

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE

Ryan McLeodBUF · C
BURSTS7298
Marat KhusnutdinovBOS · C
SKATE MPH23.091
Bowen ByramBUF · D
BURSTS1689
Josh NorrisBUF · C
SKATE MPH22.989
Morgan GeekieBOS · C
SHOT MPH88.987

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.5%

ensemble · BUF favored

Elo Static
57.9%
P(BUF win)
67%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
57.9%
P(BUF win)
16%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
57.9%
P(BUF win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-135

Close price

-135

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit