MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Rumfield walked, Karros to second, Castro to third. → win prob 33→42% COL

TOP 6TH+2ATH

COL

26-43

ATH

33-35

MLB · At bat

Top 62-30 outs

Pitcher· ATH

J. Sterner

0.0 IP, 0 ER

Batter· COL

H. Goodman

0-2, 2 K

Live · model leanTop 6thPolls every 30s

68.6%

ATH wins · current

Pre-game: 68.0% ATH

COL 0 · 2 ATH

ATH +2

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 6

away leadsATH leads

Key moments · live

newest first

ClutchCOLTop 6th Inning · 0-2
+10pp→ 42% WP
Rumfield · walked, Karros to second, Castro to third.
SwingATHBottom 5th Inning · 0-1
+14pp→ 71% WP
Langeliers · homered to center (450 feet).
SwingATHTop 1st Inning · 0-0
+7pp→ 58% WP
Goodman · struck out swinging.

Las Vegas Ballpark · Las Vegas, Nevada

Probable starters

The mound matchup

S. Sullivan

G. Jump

2-1 · 2.45 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

ATH spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 13.5

open O/U 13.5

ATH no-vig %

62.8%

open 61.6% · +1.2

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

68.0%

ensemble · ATH favored

Elo Static
65.6%
P(ATH win)
44%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
65.6%
P(ATH win)
11%
weight
Bullpen Park
65.9%
P(ATH win)
45%
weight

Disagreement

0.15 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

2 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

97.8%

+32.2ppvs pre-game · ATH favored

Leverage

±2.8

pp · next play

low · 7/100

Mostly decided · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+3.99

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-181

Close price

-218

Open no-vig

61.6%

Close no-vig

65.6%

Market steamed in our direction

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+6.8pp

best edge · ATH · DraftKings

COL

no live price

ATH

★ best

-188DraftKings

edge +6.8pp · implied 61.2%

Book	COL	ATH	Best edge
DraftKings	+142	-188★	+6.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

ATH vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

J.T. GinnATH
5.0± 2.9medium
Jeffrey SpringsATH
4.4± 2.1low
Gage JumpATH
4.3± 1.6low

Hits

Troy JohnstonCOL
1.3± 1.0high
Jacob WilsonATH
1.2± 0.6high
Jake McCarthyCOL
1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

Cole CarriggCOL
2.7± 3.4low
Shea LangeliersATH
2.4± 2.7high
Nick KurtzATH
2.3± 2.8high

RBIs

Nick KurtzATH
0.8± 1.0high
Tyler SoderstromATH
0.8± 1.3high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
4.1± 3.5low
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.9± 2.8medium
Jeffrey SpringsATH
3.2± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team rate stats

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

COL

league avg

ATH

.713

OPS

.715

▶

.737

.318

OBP

.319

▶

.326

4.24

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.35

5.54

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.58

1.51

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.42

7.4

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.3

The One model★ Lock

● Live

COL

Rockies

27-51

vs68.0%ATH

ATH★

Athletics

33-42

COL 32.0%win prob68.0% ATH

ATH 1472 · COL 1384Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
W. Castro2B	.270	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. Karros3B	.233	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
T. Rumfield1B	.272	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
H. GoodmanC	.242	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. JohnstonRF	.312	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. CarriggOF	.231	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. ThompsonRF	.220	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. FulfordC	.222	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. Stevens2B	.036	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		20	0	5	0	0	1	6

Player

AVG

RBI

.270

.233

.272

.242

.312

.231

.220

.222

.036

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
S. SullivanSP	3.0	2	0	0	0	2	49
J. CriswellRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	24
S. HalvorsenRP	0.2	2	2	2	1	1	22
Z. AgnosRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team	5.0	4	2	2	2	4	97

Player

3.0

1.0

0.2

0.1

Team

5.0

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
S. LangeliersC	.284	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
N. Kurtz1B	.288	3	1	2	1	1	0	0
C. ThomasRF	.259	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. SoderstromLF	.236	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. WilsonSS	.288	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. HeimC	.241	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
Z. Gelof3B	.263	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Muncy3B	.225	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. BolteCF	.293	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. ButlerRF	.165	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		19	2	4	2	2	2	4