MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Busch homered to right (387 feet), Kelly scored and Bregman scored. → win prob 77→94% CHC

TOP 6TH+5CHC

CHC

35-34

28-41

MLB · At bat

Top 60-00 outs

Pitcher· SF

J. Brubaker

0.0 IP, 0 ER

Batter· CHC

S. Suzuki

2-2, 1 RBI

LastJT Brubaker pitches to Seiya Suzuki

Live · model leanTop 6thPolls every 30s

69.5%

CHC wins · current

Pre-game: 58.4% SF

CHC 5 · 0 SF

CHC +5

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 5

away leadsSF leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingCHCTop 5th Inning · 5-0
+16pp→ 94% WP
Busch · homered to right (387 feet), Kelly scored and Bregman scored.
Lead flipCHCTop 4th Inning · 1-0
+15pp→ 62% WP
Suzuki · doubled to center, Happ scored, Suzuki to third.

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 8.73

J. Assad

3-1 · 4.73 ERA

L. Roupp

5-6 · 4.00 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

SF spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

SF no-vig %

50.5%

open 50.0% · +0.5

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SF favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.4%

ensemble · SF favored

Elo Static
57.9%
P(SF win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
58.8%
P(SF win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
59.3%
P(SF win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.58 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

1.0%

-56.9ppvs pre-game · CHC favored

Leverage

±2.4

pp · next play

low · 3/100

Mostly decided · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+3.21

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-110

Close price

-126

Open no-vig

50.0%

Close no-vig

53.2%

Market steamed in our direction

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+4.4pp

best edge · SF · DraftKings

CHC

no live price

★ best

-130DraftKings

edge +4.4pp · implied 54.0%

Book	CHC	SF	Best edge
DraftKings	+108	-130★	+4.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

SF vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

Landen RouppSF
5.9± 2.1low
Shota ImanagaCHC
5.3± 3.7low
Trevor McDonaldSF
5.3± 2.0low

Hits

Jung Hoo LeeSF
1.7± 1.1high
Luis ArraezSF
1.5± 0.5high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
1.3± 1.1high

Total bases

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
2.5± 2.9high
Matt ChapmanSF
2.5± 3.7high
Bryce EldridgeSF
2.1± 1.8high

RBIs

Matt ChapmanSF
1.3± 2.4high
Willy AdamesSF
0.8± 1.6high
Bryce EldridgeSF
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Edward CabreraCHC
3.2± 2.6low
Shota ImanagaCHC
3.2± 4.0low
Colin ReaCHC
3.1± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team rate stats

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHC

league avg

.725

OPS

.715

.726

.332

OBP

◀

.319

.308

4.60

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.13

4.27

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.59

1.25

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.41

8.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.0

The One modelEdge

● Live

CHC

Cubs

36-43

vs58.4%SF

SF★

Giants

37-40

CHC 41.6%win prob58.4% SF

SF 1502 · CHC 1470Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
P. Crow-ArmstrongCF	.258	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. Bregman3B	.247	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
M. Busch1B	.253	2	1	1	3	1	1	1
I. HappLF	.229	3	1	0	0	0	0	1
S. SuzukiRF	.255	2	1	2	1	0	0	0
N. Hoerner2B	.246	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
M. BallesterosDH	.236	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. KellyC	.280	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
D. SwansonSS	.176	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		19	5	5	5	1	2	5

Player

AVG

RBI

.258

.247

.253

.229

.255

.246

.236

.280

.176

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
J. AssadSP	5.0	2	0	0	1	5	69
Team	5.0	2	0	0	1	5	69

Player

J. AssadSP

5.0

Team

5.0

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
L. Arraez2B	.328	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. EldridgeDH	.302	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. SchmittDH	.274	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Devers1B	.232	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. LeeRF	.335	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. AdamesSS	.232	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Chapman3B	.261	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
D. GilbertCF	.228	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. SusacC	.305	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		16	0	2	0	0	1	5