Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in GS at SEA?

The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4GS

8-5

7672

SEA

3-12

WNBAFri, Jun 12FinalSeriesGS leads series 2-0VegasGS -9.5

GS · top performer

Janelle Salaun

F · #13

14.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SEA · top performer

Natisha Hiedeman

G · #2

19.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowGS ↔ SEA

Biggest swing: 26pp · 4th Quarter · 4:10

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. ThorntonF · #5	24	2	1-7	0-4	—	-8	4	1
G. WilliamsF · #1	32	19	6-16	2-7	5-5	-2	1	4
C. ZandalasiniF · #24	13	2	1-6	0-3	—	-5	2	0
K. StokesC · #41	23	2	1-1	—	—	+7	5	1
V. BurtonG · #22	30	11	3-9	1-5	4-6	+2	5	8
Bench
J. SalaunF · #13	33	22	7-14	5-12	3-3	+9	7	1
T. HayesG · #15	24	17	5-9	0-2	7-7	+10	4	3
K. CharlesG · #6	11	1	0-3	0-3	1-2	+5	3	0
K. ChenG · #2	10	0	0-1	0-1	—	+2	2	0
Team		76	24-66	8-37	20-23		33	18
DNP: L. Amihere, N. Fingall, J. Jocyte

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. HorstonF · #23	26	5	2-7	0-2	1-2	-5	5	5
D. MalongaC · #14	25	9	3-10	—	3-3	-8	8	2
A. FamC · #11	35	8	3-9	2-5	0-2	+7	6	1
N. HiedemanG · #2	33	26	8-17	5-10	5-7	+1	4	5
F. JohnsonG · #4	29	8	4-9	0-2	—	+8	5	1
Bench
K. SamuelsonF · #33	12	8	2-2	2-2	2-2	-5	1	0
M. HolmesF · #54	4	0	—	—	—	-4	0	1
S. DolsonC · #31	8	3	1-1	1-1	—	-3	1	0
Z. CookeG · #7	4	0	0-4	—	—	-11	1	0
J. MelbourneG · #5	27	5	2-7	0-1	1-2	0	0	2
Team		72	25-66	10-23	12-18		31	17
DNP: E. Magbegor, T. Thierry

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

24-66

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

25-66

FG %

8-37

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-23

20-23

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

12-18

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

GS leads series 2-0

May 9

GS91@

SEA80

Jun 13

GS76@

SEA72today

Sep 20

SEA@

GSupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

GS -9.5

Half-pt below key 10

1.0pt· 6.3h

Total

157.5

Defensive · -7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

GS-45582%

SEA+35022%

35· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet GS -9.5↗SpreadBet GS -9.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

9.5

+1.0 since open

Total

157.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

GS beat SEA 76-72. J. Salaun led with 22 PTS, 7 REB, 1 AST. GS outscored the other side 26-15 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SEA vs GS

Starters vs bench

production by unit

GSstarters 47% of pts

Starters(5)

36 PTS · 17 REB · 14 AST

GS 29

Bench(4)

40 PTS · 16 REB · 4 AST

GS 26

SEAstarters 78% of pts

Starters(5)

56 PTS · 28 REB · 14 AST

GS 36

Bench(5)

16 PTS · 3 REB · 3 AST

GS 10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SEA4th Quarter · 50.3 · 71-68

+16pp→ 39% WP

Janelle Salaun · loose ball foul

GS4th Quarter · 21.3 · 71-70

+17pp→ 87% WP

Jade Melbourne · personal foul

GS4th Quarter · 4:10 · 69-58

+26pp→ 98% WP

Awa Fam · enters the game for Dominique Malonga

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
GS	21	19	26	10	76
SEA	21	17	15	19	72

Period scoring

GS won 2 · SEA won 1

Salaun 9

Fam 14

Hayes 7

Malonga 13

Williams 8

Hiedeman 7

Salaun 3

Hayes 17

SEA

Shooting comparison

SEA

36%

24-66

38%

25-66

22%

8-37

3PT

43%

10-23

87%

20-23

67%

12-18

Play-by-play · 408 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
GS 76·SEA 72
−2pp
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
GS 76·SEA 72
Q4·0.0
Storm offensive team rebound
GS 76·SEA 72
Q4·0.0
Jade Melbourne misses 50-foot three point jumper
GS 76·SEA 72
−1pp
Q4·2.1
Dominique Malonga defensive rebound
GS 76·SEA 72
Q4·2.3
Kaila Charles misses free throw 2 of 2
GS 76·SEA 72
+1pp
Q4·2.3
Kaila Charles makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 76·SEA 72
Q4·2.3
Flau'jae Johnson personal foul
GS 75·SEA 72
−0.8pp
Q4·2.3
vs. BIG MOMENT
GS 75·SEA 72
−12pp
Q4·4.2
Kiah Stokes vs. Natisha Hiedeman (Kaila Charles gains possession)
· ·
GS 75·SEA 72
Q4·4.2
Golden State Valkyries defensive team rebound
GS 75·SEA 72
−3pp
Q4·7.3
Kiah Stokes blocks Natisha Hiedeman 's 27-foot three point jumper
·
GS 75·SEA 72
+3pp
Q4·11.9
Awa Fam enters the game for Zia Cooke
·
GS 75·SEA 72
Q4·11.9
Jade Melbourne personal take foul
GS 75·SEA 72
+2pp
Q4·11.9
Gabby Williams makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
GS 75·SEA 72
+5pp
Q4·11.9
Gabby Williams makes free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
GS 74·SEA 72
−20pp
Q4·13.4
Zia Cooke enters the game for Awa FamBIG MOMENT
·
GS 73·SEA 72
+26pp
Q4·13.4
Golden State Valkyries Full timeout
GS 73·SEA 72
Q4·13.4
Jade Melbourne makes two point shot (Natisha Hiedeman assists)BIG MOMENT
·
GS 73·SEA 72
+10pp
Q4·21.3
Kaila Charles enters the game for Tiffany Hayes
·
GS 73·SEA 70
Q4·21.3
Storm Full timeout
GS 73·SEA 70
Q4·21.3
Tiffany Hayes makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
GS 73·SEA 70
+7pp
Q4·21.3
Tiffany Hayes makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 72·SEA 70
+4pp
Q4·21.3
Jade Melbourne personal foulBIG MOMENT
GS 71·SEA 70
−17pp
Q4·25.4
Tiffany Hayes defensive rebound
GS 71·SEA 70
−4pp
Q4·26.6
Flau'jae Johnson misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
GS 71·SEA 70
−11pp
Q4·29.2
Storm timeout
GS 71·SEA 70
Q4·29.2
Tiffany Hayes lost ball turnoverBIG MOMENT
GS 71·SEA 70
+12pp
Q4·50.3
Dominique Malonga makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
GS 71·SEA 70
−10pp
Q4·50.3
Dominique Malonga makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 71·SEA 69
+3pp

Betting line

GS -9.5·O/U 157.5·GS -455/SEA +350

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

olden State Valkyries went into Seattle Storm and beat them, 76–72. Decided by 4.

SEA +9.5 cashed (GS won by 4). Total stayed UNDER 157.5 by 9.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

SEA

eFG%

shooting

42.4%

45.5%

TOV%

ball control

14.6%

13.0%

OREB%

offensive glass

28.6%

20.7%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

30.3%

18.2%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Kiah StokesGS · C
AST/TO3.899+
Veronica BurtonGS · G
AST/TO3.797
Gabby WilliamsGS · F
USG%.27488
Stefanie DolsonSEA · C
TS%.64588
Kaila CharlesGS · G
ORB%.10186

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

21.4%

ensemble · GS favored

Elo Static
34.5%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
33.5%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
35.1%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.66 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-4.58

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+250

Close price

+320

Open no-vig

27.4%

Close no-vig

22.8%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in GS at SEA?: The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+5.4pp

best edge · GS · DraftKings

★ best

-345DraftKings

edge +5.4pp · implied 73.1%

SEA

no live price

Book	GS	SEA	Best edge
DraftKings	-345★	+250	+5.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

SEA vs GS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

115

projections · 100 high confidence

Points

Natisha HiedemanSEA
16.6± 8.6high
Flau'jae JohnsonSEA
15.0± 7.7high
Dominique MalongaSEA
14.9± 7.9high

Rebounds

Dominique MalongaSEA
9.5± 3.3high
Awa FamSEA
6.6± 2.6high
Kiah StokesGS
5.0± 1.9high

Assists

Veronica BurtonGS
5.5± 2.6high
Natisha HiedemanSEA
4.4± 2.5high
Jade MelbourneSEA
3.8± 1.0high

Blocks

Kiah StokesGS
1.9± 1.9high
Awa FamSEA
1.3± 0.7high
Dominique MalongaSEA
1.2± 1.2high

Steals

Gabby WilliamsGS
1.7± 1.1high
Flau'jae JohnsonSEA
1.7± 1.2high
Veronica BurtonGS
1.6± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Golden State ValkyriesSeattle Storm

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Tempo85Mystics86Final

Data via ESPN · wehoop