Janelle Salaun makes 24-foot three point jumper (Veronica Burton assists) → win prob 63→71% GS
GS
7-5
SEA
3-11
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
Veronica BurtonGS · GAST/TO3.899
Kiah StokesGS · CAST/TO3.697
Gabby WilliamsGS · FUSG%.27189
Stefanie DolsonSEA · CTS%.63185
Flau'jae JohnsonSEA · GUSG%.25684
GS · top performer
Janelle Salaun
F · #13
19
Pts
6
Reb
2
Ast
SEA · top performer
Natisha Hiedeman
G · #2
20
Pts
4
Reb
3
Ast
WNBA · Golden State Valkyries at Seattle Storm · live
WNBA · Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | +/- | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 15 | 4 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 2-2 | -2 | 2 | 0 | |
| 25 | 17 | 6-13 | 2-7 | 3-3 | +5 | 0 | 4 | |
| 13 | 2 | 1-6 | 0-3 | — | -5 | 2 | 0 | |
| 24 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | +9 | 5 | 1 | |
| 20 | 11 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 4-6 | +11 | 3 | 8 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 21 | 19 | 6-11 | 4-9 | 3-3 | +19 | 6 | 2 | |
| 17 | 11 | 5-6 | 0-1 | 1-1 | +18 | 3 | 2 | |
| 6 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | — | +8 | 2 | 0 | |
| 10 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | +2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Team | 66 | 23-50 | 7-27 | 13-15 | 25 | 17 | ||
| DNP: L. Amihere, N. Fingall, J. Jocyte | ||||||||
DNP: L. Amihere, N. Fingall, J. Jocyte
| Player | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | +/- | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 21 | 5 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 1-2 | -9 | 3 | 2 | |
| 18 | 2 | 1-7 | — | — | -12 | 4 | 2 | |
| 26 | 6 | 2-7 | 2-5 | 0-2 | -7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 24 | 20 | 6-11 | 5-7 | 3-4 | -8 | 4 | 3 | |
| 19 | 6 | 3-5 | 0-1 | — | -1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 10 | 8 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 2-2 | -3 | 1 | 0 | |
| 4 | 0 | — | — | — | -4 | 0 | 1 | |
| 8 | 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | — | -3 | 1 | 0 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0-4 | — | — | -9 | 1 | 0 | |
| 17 | 3 | 1-3 | — | 1-2 | -9 | 0 | 2 | |
| Team | 53 | 18-46 | 10-18 | 7-12 | 19 | 12 | ||
| DNP: E. Magbegor, T. Thierry | ||||||||
DNP: E. Magbegor, T. Thierry
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
46
FG %
39
17
Ast
12
Season series
GS leads series 1-0
GS91@SEA80GS@SEAtodaySEA@GSupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
GS -9.5
Half-pt below key 10
1.0pt· 6.3h
Total
157.5
Defensive · -7.5 vs avg
Moneyline
GS-45582%SEA+35022%35· 6.3h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
9.5
+1.0 since open
Total
157.5
0.0 since open
Live · top performers so far
End of 3rdEnd of the 3rd Quarter
GSJ. Salaun
FLeading · End of 3rd · 21 min
19 PTS · 6 REB · 2 AST
On pace: 36 PTS · 11 REB · 4 AST
SEAN. Hiedeman
GLeading · End of 3rd · 24 min
20 PTS · 4 REB · 3 AST
On pace: 33 PTS · 7 REB · 5 AST
How it's going
GS lead SEA 66-53 (End of 3rd). J. Salaun led with 19 PTS, 6 REB, 2 AST. GS have outscored the other side 26-15 in the 3rd quarter.
Win probability
SEA vs GS
Starters vs bench
production by unitGSstarters 55% of ptsStarters(5)
36 PTS · 12 REB · 13 AST
GS 32
Bench(4)
30 PTS · 13 REB · 4 AST
GS 23
SEAstarters 74% of ptsStarters(5)
39 PTS · 16 REB · 9 AST
GS 22
Bench(5)
14 PTS · 3 REB · 3 AST
GS 11
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactKatie Lou Samuelson · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Natisha Hiedeman assists)
Natisha Hiedeman · makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jade Melbourne assists)
Janelle Salaun · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Veronica Burton assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS | 21 | 19 | 26 | 66 |
| SEA | 21 | 17 | 15 | 53 |
Period scoring
GS won 2 · SEA won 0
Q1
Salaun 9
Fam 14
Q2
Hayes 7
Malonga 13
Q3
Williams 8
Hiedeman 7
Shooting comparison
46%
23-50
FG
39%
18-46
26%
7-27
3PT
56%
10-18
87%
13-15
FT
58%
7-12
Play-by-play · 279 plays
- Q3·0.0
End of the 3rd Quarter
GS 66·SEA 53
- Q3·0.0
Golden State Valkyries offensive team rebound
GS 66·SEA 53
−0.6pp
- Q3·0.0
Veronica Burton misses shot
GS 66·SEA 53
+1pp
- Q3·1.2
Flau'jae Johnson makes driving layup
GS 66·SEA 53
+0.6pp
- Q3·12.0
Veronica Burton makes 28-foot three point jumper (Janelle Salaun assists)
·
GS 66·SEA 51
−2pp
- Q3·17.5
Flau'jae Johnson enters the game for Katie Lou Samuelson
·
GS 63·SEA 51
- Q3·33.1
Natisha Hiedeman makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 63·SEA 51
- Q3·33.1
Storm offensive team rebound
GS 63·SEA 50
−0.5pp
- Q3·33.1
Natisha Hiedeman misses free throw 1 of 2
GS 63·SEA 50
−1pp
- Q3·33.1
Kaila Charles shooting foul
GS 63·SEA 50
- Q3·38.7
Gabby Williams enters the game for Tiffany Hayes
·
GS 63·SEA 50
- Q3·38.7
Kaila Charles personal foul
GS 63·SEA 50
+2pp
- Q3·44.9
Kayla Thornton makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 63·SEA 50
+0.7pp
- Q3·44.9
Kayla Thornton makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 62·SEA 50
−3pp
- Q3·44.9
Janelle Salaun enters the game for Kiah Stokes
·
GS 61·SEA 50
- Q3·44.9
Jordan Horston enters the game for Awa Fam
·
GS 61·SEA 50
- Q3·44.9
(00:44.9) [Storm] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Storm] charged with a timeout
GS 61·SEA 50
+2pp
- Q3·44.9
Storm Full timeout
GS 61·SEA 50
+2pp
- Q3·44.9
Awa Fam loose ball foul
GS 61·SEA 50
−2pp
- Q3·44.9
Golden State Valkyries offensive team rebound
GS 61·SEA 50
−1pp
- Q3·45.0
Janelle Salaun misses 25-foot three point jumper
GS 61·SEA 50
+1pp
- Q3·49.1
Kaila Charles offensive rebound
GS 61·SEA 50
−1pp
- Q3·51.2
Tiffany Hayes misses 26-foot three point jumper
GS 61·SEA 50
+1pp
- Q3·1:04
shot clock turnover
GS 61·SEA 50
−2pp
- Q3·1:04
Storm offensive team rebound
GS 61·SEA 50
+1pp
- Q3·1:05
Natisha Hiedeman misses 23-foot three point pullup jump shot
GS 61·SEA 50
−1pp
- Q3·1:08
Storm offensive team rebound
GS 61·SEA 50
+1pp
- Q3·1:09
Awa Fam misses 24-foot three point jumper
GS 61·SEA 50
−2pp
- Q3·1:30
Tiffany Hayes makes 18-foot pullup jump shot (Veronica Burton assists)
·
GS 61·SEA 50
−2pp
- Q3·1:43
Kaila Charles enters the game for Gabby Williams
·
GS 59·SEA 50
Team stats
GS
Away
Stat
SEA
Home
23-50
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
18-46
46
FG %
39
7-27
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
10-18
13-15
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
7-12
17
Assists
12
8
Turnovers
8
Betting line
GS -9.5·O/U 157.5·GS -455/SEA +350
83.8%
GS wins · current
Pre-game: 81.2% GS
GS 66 · 53 SEA
GS +13
Live momentum · cumulative diff
Q3Key moments · live
newest firstEnsemble breakdown
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
18.6%
ensemble · GS favored
Elo Static
37.3%
P(SEA win)
32%
weight
Elo Recent
37.8%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
36.4%
P(SEA win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.58 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
96% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Live model · pick
Receipts
The receipts
Closing-line value.
-4.58
CLV pp · steam
Open price
+250
Close price
+320
Open no-vig
27.4%
Close no-vig
22.8%
Market faded the model hard
Line shop
Line shopping · 1 book
Where to bet this game.
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
+8.1pp
best edge · GS · DraftKings
GS
★ bestedge +8.1pp · implied 73.1%
SEA
no live price
| Book | GS | SEA | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -345★ | +250 | +8.1 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.
Player props
Player projections
SEA vs GS.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
110
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Gabby WilliamsGS15.7± 10.2low
- Veronica BurtonGS14.7± 8.6low
- Natisha HiedemanSEA14.4± 5.4medium
Rebounds
- Dominique MalongaSEA6.5± 3.5low
- Flau'jae JohnsonSEA5.4± 3.9medium
- Kayla ThorntonGS5.3± 3.1low
Assists
- Veronica BurtonGS5.3± 3.1low
- Natisha HiedemanSEA4.3± 2.0medium
- Jade MelbourneSEA3.2± 2.1medium
Blocks
- Kiah StokesGS1.8± 2.3low
- Laeticia AmihereGS0.9± 1.5low
- Dominique MalongaSEA0.9± 1.5low
Steals
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.7± 1.7low
- Cecilia ZandalasiniGS1.3± 2.0low
- Jordan HorstonSEA1.3± 2.0low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Team rate stats
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
GS
league avg
SEA
40.9%
FG%
44.3
40.9%
37.3%
3PT %
32.9
32.4%
85.9
PPG
85.2
76.7
19.0
Assists / G
18.0
17.8
9.6
Turnovers / G
13.0
14.4