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FINAL+5VGK
VGK

VGK

21-11-12

72
SJ

SJ

23-19-3

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSun, Jan 11FinalSeriesVGK wins series 4-0VegasVGK -142

Recap · NHL

egas Golden Knights went into San Jose Sharks and beat them, 7–2.

VGK -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

VGK · top performer

VGK
Tomas Hertl

Tomas Hertl

C · #48

5Points

2

G

3

A

—

SOG

SJ · top performer

SJ
Collin Graf

Collin Graf

RW · #51

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Vegas Golden Knights at San Jose Sharks · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
7
2
VGK21-11-12SJ23-19-3
VGK

VGK

21-11-12

7
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
SJ

SJ

23-19-3

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

PIM

8

Season series

VGK wins series 4-0

Oct 10VGKVGK4@SJSJ3
Nov 30SJSJ3@VGKVGK4
Dec 24SJSJ2@VGKVGK7
Jan 12VGKVGK7@SJSJ2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

VGK -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VGKVGK-14259%
SJSJ+12045%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

VGK beat SJ 7-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
VGK2327
SJ1102

Period scoring

VGK won 3 · SJ won 0

2
1

1

3
1

2

2
0

3

VGK
SJ

Play-by-play · 298 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    VGK 7·SJ 2

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    VGK 7·SJ 2

  3. 3rd·19:38

    Barclay Goodrow Slap Shot saved by Carl Lindbom

    ·

    VGK 7·SJ 2

  4. 3rd·19:35

    Mario Ferraro shot blocked by Kaedan Korczak

    ·

    VGK 7·SJ 2

  5. 3rd·19:31

    Giveaway by Alexander Holtz

    VGK 7·SJ 2

  6. 3rd·19:02

    Giveaway by Kaedan Korczak

    VGK 7·SJ 2

  7. 3rd·18:59

    Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Zack Ostapchuk

    ·

    VGK 7·SJ 2

  8. 3rd·18:59

    Tomas Hertl Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (16), Noah Hanifin (16)

    · ·

    VGK 7·SJ 2

  9. 3rd·18:50

    Mitch Marner Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    VGK 6·SJ 2

  10. 3rd·18:37

    Reilly Smith Snap Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov

    ·

    VGK 6·SJ 2

  11. 3rd·18:29

    Giveaway by Pavel Dorofeyev

    VGK 6·SJ 2

  12. 3rd·18:06

    Sam Dickinson shot blocked by Pavel Dorofeyev

    ·

    VGK 6·SJ 2

  13. 3rd·18:04

    Macklin Celebrini faceoff won against Mitch Marner

    ·

    VGK 6·SJ 2

  14. 3rd·18:04

    Puck in Netting

    VGK 6·SJ 2

  15. 3rd·18:01

    Jeff Skinner Wrist Shot saved by Carl Lindbom

    ·

    VGK 6·SJ 2

  16. 3rd·17:34

    Michael Misa faceoff won against Colton Sissons

    ·

    VGK 6·SJ 2

  17. 3rd·17:34

    Goalie Stopped

    VGK 6·SJ 2

  18. 3rd·17:33

    Braeden Bowman Tip-In saved by Yaroslav Askarov

    ·

    VGK 6·SJ 2

  19. 3rd·17:30

    Kaedan Korczak shot blocked by Zack Ostapchuk

    ·

    VGK 6·SJ 2

  20. 3rd·17:19

    Vincent Iorio shot blocked by Barclay Goodrow

    ·

    VGK 6·SJ 2

  21. 3rd·17:12

    Zack Ostapchuk faceoff won against Colton Sissons

    ·

    VGK 6·SJ 2

  22. 3rd·17:12

    Goalie Stopped

    VGK 6·SJ 2

  23. 3rd·17:07

    Adam Gaudette Wrist Shot saved by Carl Lindbom

    ·

    VGK 6·SJ 2

  24. 3rd·17:03

    Zack Ostapchuk faceoff won against Tomas Hertl

    ·

    VGK 6·SJ 2

  25. 3rd·17:03

    Shea Theodore Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (21)

    ·

    VGK 6·SJ 2

  26. 3rd·16:55

    Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg

    ·

    VGK 5·SJ 2

  27. 3rd·16:55

    Puck Frozen - Goalie

    VGK 5·SJ 2

  28. 3rd·16:35

    John Klingberg Wrist Shot Above Crossbar

    ·

    VGK 5·SJ 2

  29. 3rd·15:34

    Giveaway by Jeff Skinner

    VGK 5·SJ 2

  30. 3rd·15:31

    Giveaway by Reilly Smith

    VGK 5·SJ 2

Team stats

VGK

Away

Stat

SJ

Home

32

Shots

20

50.0

PCT

0.0

10

PIM

8

30

Faceoffs W

27

11

Blocks

15

24

Giveaways

11

4

Takeaways

5

Betting line

VGK -1.5·O/U 6.5·VGK -142/SJ +120

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 skaters with EDGE
  • Jack EichelVGK · C
    DIST MI58.999+
  • Shea TheodoreVGK · D
    SKATE MPH23.399
  • Mitch MarnerVGK · RW
    DIST MI53.598
  • Noah HanifinVGK · D
    BURSTS1998
  • Ivan BarbashevVGK · LW
    DIST MI44.194

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · SJ favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(SJ win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(SJ win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(SJ win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+120

Close price

+120

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR