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FINAL+3PHI
ANA

ANA

21-19-3

25
PHI

PHI

22-12-7

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Jan 6FinalSeriesPHI leads series 1-0VegasPHI -155

Recap · NHL

hiladelphia Flyers held off Anaheim Ducks, 5–2.

PHI -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ANA · top performer

ANA
Troy Terry

Troy Terry

RW · #19

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

PHI · top performer

PHI
Noah Cates

Noah Cates

LW · #27

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Anaheim Ducks at Philadelphia Flyers · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
2
5
ANA21-19-3PHI22-12-7
ANA

ANA

21-19-3

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
PHI

PHI

22-12-7

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

39

PIM

26

Season series

PHI leads series 1-0

Jan 7ANAANA2@PHIPHI5today
Mar 19PHIPHI3@ANAANA2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ANAANA+13043%
PHIPHI-15561%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHI beat ANA 5-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
ANA1012
PHI2215

Period scoring

ANA won 0 · PHI won 2

1
2

1

0
2

2

1
1

3

ANA
PHI

Play-by-play · 346 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    ANA 2·PHI 5

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    ANA 2·PHI 5

  3. 3rd·19:53

    Giveaway by Chris Kreider

    ANA 2·PHI 5

  4. 3rd·19:41

    Rodrigo Abols faceoff won against Mikael Granlund

    ·

    ANA 2·PHI 5

  5. 3rd·19:41

    Puck in Crowd

    ANA 2·PHI 5

  6. 3rd·19:40

    Alex Killorn shot blocked by Garnet Hathaway

    ·

    ANA 2·PHI 5

  7. 3rd·18:46

    Ryan Poehling faceoff won against Noah Cates

    ·

    ANA 2·PHI 5

  8. 3rd·18:46

    Nikita Grebenkin Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none

    ANA 2·PHI 5

  9. 3rd·18:43

    Giveaway by Beckett Sennecke

    ANA 2·PHI 4

  10. 3rd·18:25

    Beckett Sennecke Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar

    ·

    ANA 2·PHI 4

  11. 3rd·18:13

    Olen Zellweger hit Travis Konecny

    ·

    ANA 2·PHI 4

  12. 3rd·17:50

    Giveaway by Jackson LaCombe

    ANA 2·PHI 4

  13. 3rd·17:40

    Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Mikael Granlund

    ·

    ANA 2·PHI 4

  14. 3rd·17:40

    Puck in Netting

    ANA 2·PHI 4

  15. 3rd·16:27

    Alex Killorn Snap Shot saved by Dan Vladar

    ·

    ANA 2·PHI 4

  16. 3rd·16:14

    Giveaway by Pavel Mintyukov

    ANA 2·PHI 4

  17. 3rd·15:46

    Ryan Poehling faceoff won against Christian Dvorak

    ·

    ANA 2·PHI 4

  18. 3rd·15:46

    Radko Gudas Elbowing against Noah Cates

    ·

    ANA 2·PHI 4

  19. 3rd·15:39

    Nikita Grebenkin hit Beckett Sennecke

    ·

    ANA 2·PHI 4

  20. 3rd·14:35

    Travis Konecny hit Troy Terry

    ·

    ANA 2·PHI 4

  21. 3rd·14:25

    Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Chris Kreider

    ·

    ANA 2·PHI 4

  22. 3rd·14:25

    Puck in Netting

    ANA 2·PHI 4

  23. 3rd·14:22

    Jacob Trouba shot blocked by Garnet Hathaway

    ·

    ANA 2·PHI 4

  24. 3rd·13:55

    Radko Gudas Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar

    ·

    ANA 2·PHI 4

  25. 3rd·13:52

    Alex Killorn hit Rasmus Ristolainen

    ·

    ANA 2·PHI 4

  26. 3rd·13:36

    Radko Gudas hit Noah Cates

    ·

    ANA 2·PHI 4

  27. 3rd·13:32

    Alex Killorn Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    ANA 2·PHI 4

  28. 3rd·13:27

    Owen Tippett hit Olen Zellweger

    ·

    ANA 2·PHI 4

  29. 3rd·13:22

    Sean Couturier faceoff won against Mikael Granlund

    ·

    ANA 2·PHI 4

  30. 3rd·13:22

    Puck in Crowd

    ANA 2·PHI 4

Team stats

ANA

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

18

Shots

39

66.7

PCT

12.5

39

PIM

26

24

Faceoffs W

41

15

Blocks

23

15

Giveaways

18

2

Takeaways

7

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 6.5·ANA +130/PHI -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 29 skaters with EDGE
  • Jamie DrysdalePHI · D
    SKATE MPH23.098
  • Leo CarlssonANA · C
    BURSTS4996
  • Travis SanheimPHI · D
    SKATE MPH22.795
  • Jackson LaCombeANA · D
    DIST MI47.993
  • Cam YorkPHI · D
    SKATE MPH22.693

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PHI win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR