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FINAL+2BUF
BUF

BUF

17-14-4

31
NJ

NJ

20-15-1

Historical comparables

Historical comparables

No comparable NHL games in the historical pool yet.

NHLSun, Dec 21FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasNJ -180

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres went into New Jersey Devils and beat them, 3–1.

BUF +1.5 cashed (NJ lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BUF · top performer

BUF
Zach Benson

Zach Benson

LW · #6

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NJ · top performer

NJ
Jack Hughes

Jack Hughes

C · #86

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Buffalo Sabres at New Jersey Devils · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
3
1
BUF17-14-4NJ20-15-1
BUF

BUF

17-14-4

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
NJ

NJ

20-15-1

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

2

PIM

0

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 28NJNJ5@BUFBUF0
Dec 22BUFBUF3@NJNJ1today
Feb 26BUFBUF2@NJNJ1

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NJ -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BUFBUF+15040%
NJNJ-18064%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NJ -1.5↗SpreadBet NJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat NJ 3-1.

Last play

End of 3rd Period

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
BUF0213
NJ1001

Period scoring

BUF won 2 · NJ won 1

0
1

1

2
0

2

1
0

3

BUF
NJ

Play-by-play · 322 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    BUF 6·NJ 3

  2. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    BUF 3·NJ 1

  3. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    BUF 3·NJ 1

  4. 3rd·19:58

    Arseny Gritsyuk shot blocked by Noah Ostlund

    ·

    BUF 3·NJ 1

  5. 3rd·19:48

    Ondrej Palat shot blocked by Mattias Samuelsson

    ·

    BUF 3·NJ 1

  6. 3rd·19:44

    Cody Glass faceoff won against Josh Norris

    ·

    BUF 3·NJ 1

  7. 3rd·19:44

    Goalie Stopped

    BUF 3·NJ 1

  8. 3rd·19:41

    Dawson Mercer Snap Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

    ·

    BUF 3·NJ 1

  9. 3rd·19:38

    Ondrej Palat Tip-In saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

    ·

    BUF 3·NJ 1

  10. 3rd·19:35

    Cody Glass faceoff won against Ryan McLeod

    ·

    BUF 3·NJ 1

  11. 3rd·19:35

    Icing

    BUF 3·NJ 1

  12. 3rd·19:21

    Off-side

    BUF 5·NJ 3

  13. 3rd·19:18

    Timo Meier Batted Above Crossbar

    ·

    BUF 3·NJ 1

  14. 3rd·19:09

    Tage Thompson faceoff won against Nico Hischier

    ·

    BUF 3·NJ 1

  15. 3rd·19:09

    Puck Frozen - Goalie

    BUF 3·NJ 1

  16. 3rd·18:44

    Goalie Stopped

    BUF 5·NJ 3

  17. 3rd·18:41

    Nico Hischier faceoff won against Josh Norris

    ·

    BUF 3·NJ 1

  18. 3rd·18:41

    Icing

    BUF 3·NJ 1

  19. 3rd·18:36

    Bowen Byram Wrist Shot Wide Right

    BUF 3·NJ 1

  20. 3rd·18:28

    Cody Glass Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    BUF 3·NJ 1

  21. 3rd·18:17

    Giveaway by Bowen Byram

    BUF 3·NJ 1

  22. 3rd·17:59

    Josh Norris faceoff won against Cody Glass

    ·

    BUF 3·NJ 1

  23. 3rd·17:59

    Peyton Krebs Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (14), Bowen Byram (8)

    · ·

    BUF 3·NJ 1

  24. 3rd·17:48

    Jack Hughes Wrist Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

    · ·

    BUF 2·NJ 1

  25. 3rd·17:42

    Nico Hischier faceoff won against Tage Thompson

    ·

    BUF 2·NJ 1

  26. 3rd·17:42

    Goalie Stopped

    BUF 2·NJ 1

  27. 3rd·17:40

    Jesper Bratt Wrist Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

    ·

    BUF 2·NJ 1

  28. 3rd·17:19

    Jesper Bratt Slap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    BUF 2·NJ 1

  29. 3rd·17:15

    Nico Hischier faceoff won against Josh Norris

    ·

    BUF 2·NJ 1

  30. 3rd·17:15

    Icing

    BUF 2·NJ 1

Team stats

BUF

Away

Stat

NJ

Home

25

Shots

27

0.0

PCT

0.0

2

PIM

0

21

Faceoffs W

30

23

Blocks

13

16

Giveaways

18

7

Takeaways

2

Betting line

NJ -1.5·O/U 6.5·BUF +150/NJ -180

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 skaters with EDGE
  • Ryan McLeodBUF · C
    BURSTS7299
  • Rasmus DahlinBUF · D
    DIST MI46.992
  • Bowen ByramBUF · D
    BURSTS1691
  • Josh NorrisBUF · C
    SKATE MPH22.989
  • Mattias SamuelssonBUF · D
    DIST MI41.088

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · NJ favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NJ win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NJ win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NJ win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+150

Close price

+150

Open no-vig

38.4%

Close no-vig

38.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR