NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2DEN

DEN

45-28

125123

PHX

40-33

NBATue, Mar 24FinalSeriesDEN wins series 3-0VegasDEN -5.5

Recap · NBA

enver Nuggets went into Phoenix Suns and beat them, 125–123. Decided by 2.

PHX +5.5 cashed (DEN won by 2). Total cleared the 233.5 OVER by 14.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DEN · top performer

Nikola Jokic

C · #15

29.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

PHX · top performer

Royce O'Neale

F · #00

19.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. GordonF · #32	26	16	5-9	1-1	5-10	-6	6	3
C. JohnsonF · #23	33	14	4-9	2-7	4-4	-12	3	2
N. JokicC · #15	35	23	9-16	0-1	5-7	-5	17	17
J. MurrayG · #27	38	21	7-18	3-9	4-4	+3	1	6
C. BraunG · #0	32	13	6-10	1-3	—	+1	3	1
Bench
S. JonesF · #21	22	4	2-4	—	—	+8	7	0
T. Hardaway Jr.G · #10	23	18	6-12	4-8	2-3	+3	3	2
B. BrownG · #11	23	9	4-7	1-2	—	+6	9	3
J. StrawtherG · #3	8	7	2-3	1-1	2-2	+12	1	1
Team		125	45-88	13-32	22-30		50	35
DNP: Z. Nnaji, D. Holmes II, J. Valanciunas, T. Jones, J. Pickett, C. Jones

DNP: Z. Nnaji, D. Holmes II, J. Valanciunas, T. Jones, J. Pickett, C. Jones

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
R. O'NealeF · #00	28	17	5-8	5-8	2-2	+10	5	3
O. IghodaroF · #11	34	15	6-7	—	3-7	-7	6	1
D. BookerG · #1	35	22	5-14	1-4	11-13	+1	3	8
C. GillespieG · #12	27	11	4-11	2-7	1-1	-1	3	1
J. GreenG · #4	29	21	6-13	3-6	6-8	+9	6	6
Bench
R. FlemingF · #20	23	3	0-6	0-4	3-4	-12	4	0
K. MaluachC · #10	11	6	2-3	0-1	2-2	+5	1	0
G. AllenG · #8	23	21	8-19	5-12	—	-16	5	3
J. GoodwinG · #23	26	7	3-8	1-5	—	+1	8	2
J. BouyeaG · #17	4	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
Team		123	39-89	17-47	28-37		41	24
DNP: K. Brea

DNP: K. Brea

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

DEN wins series 3-0

Oct 26

PHX111@

DEN133

Nov 30

DEN130@

PHX112

Mar 25

DEN125@

PHX123today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DEN -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

233.5

High-scoring · +7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DEN-22569%

PHX+18535%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DEN -5.5↗SpreadBet DEN -5.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

233.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowDEN ↔ PHX

Biggest swing: 26pp · 4th Quarter · 1.9

DEN

N. Jokic

Game leader · 35 minTriple-double

23 PTS · 17 REB · 17 AST

PHX

R. O'Neale

Game leader · 28 min

17 PTS · 5 REB · 3 AST

How it ended

DEN beat PHX 125-123. N. Jokic stuffed the line with 23 PTS, 17 REB, and 17 AST. DEN outscored the other side 39-22 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

PHX vs DEN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DENstarters 70% of pts

Starters(5)

87 PTS · 30 REB · 29 AST

GS 76

Bench(4)

38 PTS · 20 REB · 6 AST

GS 31

PHXstarters 70% of pts

Starters(5)

86 PTS · 23 REB · 19 AST

GS 77

Bench(5)

37 PTS · 18 REB · 5 AST

GS 28

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DEN4th Quarter · 11.8 · 125-123

+15pp→ 71% WP

Nikola Jokic · makes 11-foot floating jump shot (Jamal Murray assists)

DEN4th Quarter · 1.9 · 125-123

+26pp→ 96% WP

Devin Booker · misses 25-foot three point jumper

PHX3rd Quarter · 3:58 · 88-83

+22pp→ 22% WP

Rasheer Fleming · enters the game for Royce O'Neale

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DEN	28	39	30	28	125
PHX	35	22	38	28	123

Period scoring

DEN won 1 · PHX won 2

Jokic 8

Gillespie 8

Braun 7

Green 12

Johnson 12

O'Neale 9

Murray 11

Ighodaro 9

DEN

PHX

Shooting comparison

DEN

PHX

51%

45-88

44%

39-89

41%

13-32

3PT

36%

17-47

73%

22-30

76%

28-37

Play-by-play · 495 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DEN 125·PHX 123
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th QuarterBIG MOMENT
DEN 125·PHX 123
−6pp
Q4·1.9
Royce O'Neale offensive rebound
DEN 125·PHX 123
+2pp
Q4·1.9
Devin Booker misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
DEN 125·PHX 123
−26pp
Q4·11.5
Bruce Brown enters the game for Jamal Murray
·
DEN 125·PHX 123
Q4·11.5
Christian Braun enters the game for Cameron Johnson
·
DEN 125·PHX 123
Q4·11.5
Grayson Allen enters the game for Jordan Goodwin
·
DEN 125·PHX 123
Q4·11.5
Collin Gillespie enters the game for Oso Ighodaro
·
DEN 125·PHX 123
Q4·11.5
Suns Full timeout
DEN 125·PHX 123
Q4·11.8
Nikola Jokic makes 11-foot floating jump shot (Jamal Murray assists)BIG MOMENT
·
DEN 125·PHX 123
−15pp
Q4·29.1
Tim Hardaway Jr. enters the game for Christian Braun
·
DEN 123·PHX 123
Q4·29.1
Nuggets Full timeout
DEN 123·PHX 123
Q4·30.2
Devin Booker makes 10-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
DEN 123·PHX 123
+11pp
Q4·35.4
Jamal Murray makes 15-foot fade away jump shotBIG MOMENT
DEN 123·PHX 121
−11pp
Q4·54.1
Jalen Green makes 4-foot two point shot (Devin Booker assists)BIG MOMENT
·
DEN 121·PHX 121
+9pp
Q4·1:02
Royce O'Neale defensive rebound
DEN 121·PHX 119
+3pp
Q4·1:06
Nikola Jokic misses 10-foot floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
DEN 121·PHX 119
+8pp
Q4·1:21
Devin Booker makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
DEN 121·PHX 119
−8pp
Q4·1:21
Devin Booker makes free throw 1 of 2
DEN 121·PHX 118
+2pp
Q4·1:21
Cameron Johnson personal foulBIG MOMENT
DEN 121·PHX 117
+12pp
Q4·1:28
Jordan Goodwin defensive rebound
DEN 121·PHX 117
Q4·1:30
Nikola Jokic misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
DEN 121·PHX 117
+10pp
Q4·1:30
Nikola Jokic makes free throw 1 of 2
DEN 121·PHX 117
−1pp
Q4·1:30
Devin Booker shooting foulBIG MOMENT
DEN 120·PHX 117
−9pp
Q4·1:51
Royce O'Neale makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
DEN 120·PHX 117
−6pp
Q4·1:51
Royce O'Neale makes free throw 1 of 2
DEN 120·PHX 116
+2pp
Q4·1:51
Cameron Johnson personal foulBIG MOMENT
DEN 120·PHX 115
+9pp
Q4·2:03
Nikola Jokic makes 8-foot two point shot (Jamal Murray assists)BIG MOMENT
·
DEN 120·PHX 115
−6pp
Q4·2:20
Devin Booker makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
DEN 118·PHX 115
−5pp
Q4·2:20
Devin Booker makes free throw 1 of 2
DEN 118·PHX 114
+2pp

Team stats

DEN

Away

Stat

PHX

Home

45-88

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

39-89

FG %

13-32

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

17-47

22-30

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

28-37

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

DEN -5.5·O/U 233.5·DEN -225/PHX +185

DraftKings · via ESPN

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Nikola JokicDEN · C
TOUCHES12399+
Jalen GreenPHX · G
USG%31.798
Devin BookerPHX · G
USG%31.397
Jamal MurrayDEN · G
TOUCHES82.296
Oso IghodaroPHX · F
CONT792

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · DEN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHX vs DEN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

180

projections · 155 high confidence

Points

Nikola JokicDEN
26.6± 7.0high
Devin BookerPHX
24.6± 6.2high
Jamal MurrayDEN
24.2± 8.1high

Rebounds

Nikola JokicDEN
12.5± 3.1high
Mark WilliamsPHX
7.2± 2.3high
Oso IghodaroPHX
5.5± 3.2high

Assists

Nikola JokicDEN
9.7± 4.5high
Jamal MurrayDEN
6.4± 1.9high
Devin BookerPHX
5.8± 2.3high

Blocks

Nikola JokicDEN
1.0± 1.0high
Peyton WatsonDEN
1.0± 1.1high
Mark WilliamsPHX
1.0± 1.3high

Steals

Jordan GoodwinPHX
1.8± 2.1high
Bruce BrownDEN
1.3± 1.5high
Nikola JokicDEN
1.3± 1.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DEN

league avg

PHX

57.2%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.7%

49.2%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.5%

121.1

PPG

◀

114.9

112.2

28.7

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.5

12.1

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR