NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5CLE

ORL

38-34

131136

CLE

45-27

NBATue, Mar 24FinalSeriesCLE wins series 3-1VegasCLE -10.5

ORL · top performer

Paolo Banchero

F · #5

26.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CLE · top performer

Donovan Mitchell

G · #45

31.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowORL ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 24pp · 2nd Quarter · 7:58

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. CainF · #8	32	17	5-11	1-3	6-6	+8	6	3
P. BancheroF · #5	40	36	10-19	3-7	13-15	-3	6	5
T. da SilvaF · #23	36	18	5-11	3-7	5-5	+5	6	3
W. Carter Jr.C · #34	29	15	4-7	2-5	5-6	-3	5	2
D. BaneG · #3	36	17	5-13	1-3	6-6	-5	7	3
Bench
M. WagnerF · #21	5	4	2-3	0-1	—	+4	2	0
N. PendaF · #93	5	0	0-1	0-1	—	-4	0	2
G. BitadzeC · #35	14	4	2-3	—	—	-4	2	3
J. CarterG · #2	27	15	6-12	3-9	—	-10	4	4
J. HowardG · #13	16	5	2-4	1-3	—	-13	1	2
Team		131	41-84	14-39	35-38		39	27
DNP: C. Castleton, A. Morales, J. Richardson

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. WadeF · #32	21	2	1-4	0-2	—	-4	1	1
E. MobleyC · #4	33	19	8-8	—	3-4	-4	9	6
J. HardenG · #1	37	26	8-16	4-6	6-7	-2	3	7
D. MitchellG · #45	35	42	14-22	3-7	11-11	+2	2	3
S. MerrillG · #5	33	19	6-11	2-6	5-6	+4	4	1
Bench
N. TomlinF · #35	6	0	—	—	—	+3	1	0
T. BryantC · #3	13	9	4-4	—	1-1	+13	6	1
D. SchroderG · #8	16	6	3-5	0-1	—	-2	1	2
M. StrusG · #2	27	11	4-10	3-8	—	+13	3	3
K. EllisG · #14	20	2	1-1	—	—	+2	3	0
Team		136	49-81	12-30	26-29		33	24
DNP: R. Minix, T. Proctor

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

ORL

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

41-84

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

49-81

FG %

14-39

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-30

35-38

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

26-29

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

CLE wins series 3-1

Jan 25

CLE119@

ORL105

Jan 27

ORL98@

CLE114

Mar 11

CLE122@

ORL128

Mar 25

ORL131@

CLE136today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -10.5

Half-pt above key 10

Total

230.5

Standard · +4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ORL+35022%

CLE-45582%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -10.5↗SpreadBet CLE -10.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

10.5

0.0 since open

Total

230.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CLE beat ORL 136-131. D. Mitchell led the way with 42 points and 3 assists. CLE outscored the other side 40-29 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CLE vs ORL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ORLstarters 79% of pts

Starters(5)

103 PTS · 30 REB · 16 AST

GS 87

Bench(5)

28 PTS · 9 REB · 11 AST

GS 26

CLEstarters 79% of pts

Starters(5)

108 PTS · 19 REB · 18 AST

GS 90

Bench(5)

28 PTS · 14 REB · 6 AST

GS 30

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

ORL3rd Quarter · 4:19 · 89-91

+13pp→ 26% WP

Keon Ellis · blocks Goga Bitadze 's 2-foot layup

ORL2nd Quarter · 7:58 · 47-46

+24pp→ 31% WP

(07:58) [Magic] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL REPLAYCENTER)

ORL4th Quarter · 37.5 · 126-131

+9pp→ 18% WP

Max Strus · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
ORL	39	29	29	34	131
CLE	32	40	33	31	136

Period scoring

ORL won 2 · CLE won 2

Banchero 16

Harden 10

Carter 7

Harden 12

Banchero 8

Mitchell 24

Tristan 10

Tristan 63

ORL

CLE

Shooting comparison

ORL

CLE

49%

41-84

60%

49-81

36%

14-39

3PT

40%

12-30

92%

35-38

90%

26-29

Play-by-play · 460 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
ORL 131·CLE 136
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ORL 131·CLE 136
Q4·0.1
Paolo Banchero bad pass turnover (James Harden steals)
·
ORL 131·CLE 136
Q4·0.8
Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2
ORL 131·CLE 136
Q4·0.8
Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2
ORL 131·CLE 135
Q4·0.8
Jamal Cain enters the game for Wendell Carter Jr.
· ·
ORL 131·CLE 134
Q4·0.8
Wendell Carter Jr. personal foul
·
ORL 131·CLE 134
+0.6pp
Q4·1.1
Paolo Banchero makes 25-foot three pointer (Jevon Carter assists)
·
ORL 131·CLE 134
Q4·4.2
Magic Full timeout
ORL 128·CLE 134
Q4·4.2
Tristan da Silva defensive rebound
ORL 128·CLE 134
Q4·4.5
Sam Merrill misses free throw 2 of 2
ORL 128·CLE 134
−0.5pp
Q4·4.5
Sam Merrill makes free throw 1 of 2
ORL 128·CLE 134
Q4·4.5
Paolo Banchero personal foul
ORL 128·CLE 133
+0.5pp
Q4·4.5
Sam Merrill defensive rebound
ORL 128·CLE 133
+0.8pp
Q4·7.5
Tristan da Silva misses 24-foot three point jumper
ORL 128·CLE 133
+3pp
Q4·13.7
Jevon Carter enters the game for Jamal Cain
·
ORL 128·CLE 133
Q4·13.7
Magic Full timeout
ORL 128·CLE 133
Q4·13.7
Donovan Mitchell makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot
ORL 128·CLE 133
+5pp
Q4·18.9
Cavaliers Full timeout
ORL 128·CLE 131
+3pp
Q4·37.5
Wendell Carter Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
·
ORL 128·CLE 131
+7pp
Q4·37.5
Wendell Carter Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
·
ORL 127·CLE 131
−2pp
Q4·37.5
Max Strus shooting foulBIG MOMENT
ORL 126·CLE 131
−9pp
Q4·40.4
Desmond Bane defensive rebound
ORL 126·CLE 131
−0.9pp
Q4·42.3
James Harden misses driving floating jump shot
ORL 126·CLE 131
−2pp
Q4·1:06
Wendell Carter Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
·
ORL 126·CLE 131
Q4·1:06
Magic offensive team rebound
ORL 125·CLE 131
+3pp
Q4·1:06
Wendell Carter Jr. misses free throw 1 of 2
·
ORL 125·CLE 131
+4pp
Q4·1:06
Donovan Mitchell loose ball foulBIG MOMENT
ORL 125·CLE 131
−7pp
Q4·1:06
Magic offensive team rebound
ORL 125·CLE 131
−2pp
Q4·1:06
Tristan da Silva misses 26-foot three point jumper
ORL 125·CLE 131
+2pp

Betting line

CLE -10.5·O/U 230.5·ORL +350/CLE -455

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

leveland Cavaliers held off Orlando Magic, 136–131. Decided by 5.

ORL +10.5 cashed (CLE won by 5). Total cleared the 230.5 OVER by 36.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Paolo BancheroORL · F
DRIVES18.699
Goga BitadzeORL · C
TS%70.099
Donovan MitchellCLE · G
USG%31.998
Evan MobleyCLE · C
CONT9.498
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL · C
CONT9.197

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · ORL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CLE vs ORL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Donovan MitchellCLE
27.5± 7.3high
Paolo BancheroORL
23.9± 9.4high
James HardenCLE
19.6± 6.6high

Rebounds

Paolo BancheroORL
8.3± 2.3high
Evan MobleyCLE
8.0± 3.5high
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL
7.4± 4.7high

Assists

Paolo BancheroORL
6.0± 2.3high
James HardenCLE
5.9± 2.8high
Jalen SuggsORL
4.6± 1.5high

Blocks

Evan MobleyCLE
2.1± 1.3high
Goga BitadzeORL
1.4± 1.2high
Jarrett AllenCLE
1.3± 0.7high

Steals

Jalen SuggsORL
1.8± 1.5high
Donovan MitchellCLE
1.5± 1.8high
Anthony BlackORL
1.5± 1.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

ORL

league avg

CLE

52.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.6%

45.9%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.7%

114.2

PPG

114.9

▶

117.4

26.0

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.1

13.7

Turnovers / G

14.0

13.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR