NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+44CHA

SAC

19-54

90134

CHA

38-34

NBATue, Mar 24FinalSeriesCHA wins series 2-0VegasCHA -18.5

SAC · top performer

Devin Carter

G · #22

12.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CHA · top performer

Coby White

G · #3

24.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowSAC ↔ CHA

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. RaynaudC · #42	30	16	6-14	1-3	3-4	-42	7	0
D. DeRozanG · #10	29	7	3-10	0-2	1-3	-29	4	5
M. MonkG · #0	30	7	3-13	0-3	1-2	-39	3	14
D. CarterG · #22	34	18	7-15	3-5	1-1	-36	3	3
P. Baldwin Jr.G · #23	28	5	2-6	1-3	—	-28	4	1
Bench
D. McDermottF · #7	30	9	4-8	1-4	—	-10	1	2
D. CardwellC · #32	24	6	3-8	—	—	-11	11	1
D. PlowdenG · #29	36	22	9-17	3-8	1-1	-25	2	1
Team		90	37-91	9-28	7-11		35	27
DNP: P. Achiuwa, D. Eubanks, K. Hayes, N. Clifford

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BridgesF · #0	24	9	4-8	0-3	1-2	+28	8	4
M. DiabateF · #14	24	17	6-7	—	5-7	+26	11	2
B. MillerF · #24	27	13	5-15	3-10	—	+30	3	6
L. BallG · #1	23	20	7-16	6-13	—	+32	6	8
K. KnueppelG · #7	21	14	5-12	4-7	—	+28	4	3
Bench
G. WilliamsF · #2	17	0	0-1	0-1	—	+9	3	2
X. TillmanF · #26	7	1	0-1	—	1-2	-2	3	3
R. KalkbrennerC · #11	22	6	3-4	0-1	—	+22	4	1
C. WhiteG · #3	18	27	9-12	6-8	3-3	+26	5	1
J. GreenG · #10	17	6	2-4	2-4	—	+13	0	1
T. MannG · #23	7	6	2-4	2-3	—	-2	0	0
S. JamesG · #4	21	8	3-7	2-4	—	+8	4	1
L. McNeeleyG · #33	10	7	2-3	1-1	2-2	+2	6	0
Team		134	48-94	26-55	12-16		57	32

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

SAC

Away

Stat

CHA

Home

37-91

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

48-94

FG %

9-28

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

26-55

7-11

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

12-16

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

CHA wins series 2-0

Mar 12

CHA117@

SAC109

Mar 24

SAC90@

CHA134today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHA -18.5

Between 10 and —

Total

233.5

High-scoring · +7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SAC+10009%

CHA-180095%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHA -18.5↗SpreadBet CHA -18.5↗

Line movement · 13 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

18.5

0.0 since open

Total

233.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CHA beat SAC 134-90. C. White paced them with 27 PTS, 5 REB, 1 AST. CHA outscored the other side 38-22 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CHA vs SAC

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SACstarters 59% of pts

Starters(5)

53 PTS · 21 REB · 23 AST

GS 37

Bench(3)

37 PTS · 14 REB · 4 AST

GS 24

CHAstarters 54% of pts

Starters(5)

73 PTS · 32 REB · 23 AST

GS 67

Bench(8)

61 PTS · 25 REB · 9 AST

GS 55

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
SAC	25	22	29	14	90
CHA	34	38	41	21	134

Period scoring

SAC won 0 · CHA won 4

Raynaud 8

White 19

Raynaud 7

James 32

Plowden 8

Knueppel 9

Carter 5

McNeeley 7

SAC

CHA

Shooting comparison

SAC

CHA

41%

37-91

51%

48-94

32%

9-28

3PT

47%

26-55

64%

7-11

75%

12-16

Play-by-play · 447 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
SAC 90·CHA 134
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SAC 90·CHA 134
Q4·11.4
shot clock turnover
SAC 90·CHA 134
Q4·33.5
Liam McNeeley defensive rebound
SAC 90·CHA 134
Q4·36.9
Devin Carter misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
SAC 90·CHA 134
Q4·45.4
Devin Carter defensive rebound
SAC 90·CHA 134
Q4·47.9
Ryan Kalkbrenner misses 22-foot three point jumper
SAC 90·CHA 134
Q4·1:03
Liam McNeeley defensive rebound
SAC 90·CHA 134
Q4·1:05
Doug McDermott misses 30-foot running jump shot
SAC 90·CHA 134
Q4·1:10
Patrick Baldwin Jr. defensive rebound
SAC 90·CHA 134
Q4·1:13
Tre Mann misses driving floating jump shot
SAC 90·CHA 134
Q4·1:36
Liam McNeeley defensive rebound
SAC 90·CHA 134
Q4·1:38
Devin Carter misses driving layup
SAC 90·CHA 134
Q4·2:01
Kings Full timeout
SAC 90·CHA 134
Q4·2:01
Ryan Kalkbrenner offensive foul turnover
SAC 90·CHA 134
Q4·2:01
Ryan Kalkbrenner offensive foul
SAC 90·CHA 134
Q4·2:21
Doug McDermott makes 12-foot fade away jump shot
SAC 90·CHA 134
Q4·2:35
Daeqwon Plowden defensive rebound
SAC 88·CHA 134
Q4·2:39
Sion James misses 25-foot three point jumper
SAC 88·CHA 134
Q4·2:56
Xavier Tillman defensive rebound
SAC 88·CHA 134
Q4·2:58
Doug McDermott misses driving floating jump shot
SAC 88·CHA 134
Q4·3:08
Tre Mann makes 22-foot three point jumper (Xavier Tillman assists)
·
SAC 88·CHA 134
Q4·3:10
Xavier Tillman offensive rebound
SAC 88·CHA 131
Q4·3:13
Tre Mann misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
SAC 88·CHA 131
Q4·3:17
Hornets offensive team rebound
SAC 88·CHA 131
Q4·3:17
Dylan Cardwell blocks Liam McNeeley 's 3-foot driving layup
·
SAC 88·CHA 131
Q4·3:34
Liam McNeeley defensive rebound
SAC 88·CHA 131
Q4·3:37
Patrick Baldwin Jr. misses 27-foot three point jumper
SAC 88·CHA 131
Q4·3:58
Xavier Tillman makes free throw 2 of 2
SAC 88·CHA 131
Q4·3:58
Hornets offensive team rebound
SAC 88·CHA 130

Betting line

CHA -18.5·O/U 233.5·SAC +1000/CHA -1800

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

harlotte Hornets held off Sacramento Kings, 134–90. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

CHA -18.5 cashed (won by 44). Total stayed UNDER 233.5 by 9.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Ryan KalkbrennerCHA · C
TS%76.299+
LaMelo BallMIN · G
USG%31.397
Moussa DiabateCHA · F
CONT7.794
Maxime RaynaudSAC · C
CONT7.593
Brandon MillerCHA · F
USG%27.893

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.0%

ensemble · CHA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
34%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHA vs SAC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

135

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Brandon MillerCHA
18.8± 5.5high
Zach LaVineSAC
17.6± 7.7high
Domantas SabonisSAC
16.0± 8.6high

Rebounds

Domantas SabonisSAC
10.6± 3.5high
Moussa DiabateCHA
8.8± 2.9high
Maxime RaynaudSAC
8.3± 2.4high

Assists

Domantas SabonisSAC
4.3± 2.0high
Malik MonkSAC
3.8± 4.3high
Nique CliffordSAC
3.7± 1.7high

Blocks

Dylan CardwellSAC
1.7± 1.7high
Keegan MurraySAC
1.4± 0.8high
Ryan KalkbrennerCHA
1.3± 1.3high

Steals

Brandon MillerCHA
1.0± 1.3high
Grayson AllenCHA
1.0± 1.0high
Royce O'NealeCHA
1.0± 1.5high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

SAC

league avg

CHA

52.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.0%

46.7%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.9%

111.0

PPG

114.9

▶

115.8

25.5

Assists / G

25.0

▶

26.2

13.7

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.4

Team pages

Sacramento KingsCharlotte Hornets

Elsewhere in the NBA

Data via ESPN · hoopR