NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5NY

25-48

116121

48-25

NBATue, Mar 24FinalSeriesNY wins series 2-0VegasNY -8.5

Recap · NBA

ew York Knicks held off New Orleans Pelicans, 121–116. Decided by 5.

NO +8.5 cashed (NY won by 5). Total cleared the 229.5 OVER by 7.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NO · top performer

Zion Williamson

F · #1

19.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NY · top performer

Jalen Brunson

G · #11

25.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
H. JonesF · #2	37	13	6-8	1-2	—	+2	2	6
Z. WilliamsonF · #1	34	22	8-10	—	6-8	+15	4	2
T. Murphy IIIF · #25	36	16	6-15	4-12	—	-13	6	2
D. MurrayG · #5	28	7	2-12	1-4	2-2	0	5	12
S. BeyG · #41	28	18	6-13	4-6	2-2	+1	4	2
Bench
K. MatkovicF · #17	23	12	5-6	2-2	—	+1	3	1
D. QueenC · #22	18	5	2-8	0-3	1-1	-7	5	3
Y. MissiC · #21	17	2	1-4	—	—	-19	4	2
J. FearsG · #0	20	21	9-12	3-5	—	-5	1	3
Team		116	45-88	15-34	11-13		34	33
DNP: K. Looney, D. Jordan, J. Poole, M. Peavy, J. Hawkins

DNP: K. Looney, D. Jordan, J. Poole, M. Peavy, J. Hawkins

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. AnunobyF · #8	40	21	7-16	5-13	2-2	+17	4	4
K. TownsC · #32	24	21	8-17	2-6	3-3	-11	14	1
J. HartG · #3	38	10	3-8	—	4-5	-14	8	3
M. BridgesG · #25	37	14	5-12	4-10	—	-9	2	7
J. BrunsonG · #11	39	32	11-19	2-4	8-9	+16	1	7
Bench
M. DiawaraF · #51	11	2	1-2	—	—	+15	0	1
M. RobinsonC · #23	21	11	5-5	—	1-1	+11	8	0
J. ClarksonG · #00	21	10	4-6	—	2-2	+11	3	5
J. AlvaradoG · #5	9	0	—	—	—	-11	1	1
Team		121	44-85	13-33	20-22		41	29
DNP: T. Jemison III, J. Sochan, P. Dadiet, T. Kolek

DNP: T. Jemison III, J. Sochan, P. Dadiet, T. Kolek

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

NY wins series 2-0

Dec 30

NY130@

NO125

Mar 24

NO116@

NY121today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NY -8.5

Between 7 and 10

Total

229.5

Standard · +3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NO+28026%

NY-35578%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NY -8.5↗SpreadBet NY -8.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

8.5

0.0 since open

Total

229.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNO ↔ NY

Biggest swing: 11pp · 4th Quarter · 29.4

Z. Williamson

Game leader · 34 min

22 PTS · 4 REB · 2 AST

J. Brunson

Game leader · 39 min30-point game

32 PTS · 1 REB · 7 AST

How it ended

NY beat NO 121-116. J. Brunson paced them with 32 PTS, 1 REB, 7 AST. NY outscored the other side 42-28 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

NY vs NO

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NOstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

76 PTS · 21 REB · 24 AST

GS 63

Bench(4)

40 PTS · 13 REB · 9 AST

GS 37

NYstarters 81% of pts

Starters(5)

98 PTS · 29 REB · 22 AST

GS 79

Bench(4)

23 PTS · 12 REB · 7 AST

GS 27

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

NY3rd Quarter · 7:32 · 72-77

+11pp→ 81% WP

Karl-Anthony Towns · offensive foul turnover

NY4th Quarter · 3:03 · 107-113

+11pp→ 93% WP

Saddiq Bey · misses 25-foot three point jumper

NY4th Quarter · 29.4 · 114-118

+11pp→ 93% WP

Zion Williamson · misses free throw 2 of 2

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NO	28	32	32	24	116
NY	42	24	27	28	121

Period scoring

NO won 2 · NY won 2

Jones 7

Anunoby 13

Fears 10

Hart 11

III 9

Towns 38

Fears 11

Brunson 15

Shooting comparison

51%

45-88

52%

44-85

44%

15-34

3PT

39%

13-33

85%

11-13

91%

20-22

Play-by-play · 427 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NO 116·NY 121
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NO 116·NY 121
Q4·1.7
Josh Hart defensive rebound
NO 116·NY 121
+0.8pp
Q4·5.1
Dejounte Murray misses 27-foot three point jumper
NO 116·NY 121
+4pp
Q4·13.6
Jalen Brunson makes free throw 2 of 2
NO 116·NY 121
−2pp
Q4·13.6
Jordan Clarkson enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns
· ·
NO 116·NY 120
Q4·13.6
Jalen Brunson makes free throw 1 of 2
NO 116·NY 120
+0.7pp
Q4·13.6
Trey Murphy III personal take foulBIG MOMENT
·
NO 116·NY 119
+6pp
Q4·15.6
Karl-Anthony Towns enters the game for Jordan Clarkson
· ·
NO 116·NY 119
Q4·15.6
Knicks Full timeout
NO 116·NY 119
Q4·16.6
Trey Murphy III makes driving layup
·
NO 116·NY 119
−2pp
Q4·23.0
Trey Murphy III defensive rebound
·
NO 114·NY 119
Q4·23.3
Josh Hart misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
NO 114·NY 119
−5pp
Q4·23.3
Jordan Clarkson enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns
· ·
NO 114·NY 119
Q4·23.3
Josh Hart makes free throw 1 of 2
NO 114·NY 119
+0.5pp
Q4·23.3
Trey Murphy III personal take foul
·
NO 114·NY 118
+5pp
Q4·28.1
Karl-Anthony Towns defensive rebound
NO 114·NY 118
Q4·29.4
Zion Williamson misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
NO 114·NY 118
+11pp
Q4·29.4
Karl-Anthony Towns enters the game for Jordan Clarkson
· ·
NO 114·NY 118
Q4·29.4
Zion Williamson makes free throw 1 of 2
NO 114·NY 118
−2pp
Q4·29.4
OG Anunoby shooting foulBIG MOMENT
NO 113·NY 118
−8pp
Q4·44.0
Jalen Brunson out of bounds bad pass turnover
NO 113·NY 118
−3pp
Q4·1:03
Zion Williamson makes driving layup (Dejounte Murray assists)
·
NO 113·NY 118
−2pp
Q4·1:11
Jalen Brunson makes free throw 2 of 2
NO 111·NY 118
−2pp
Q4·1:11
Jalen Brunson makes free throw 1 of 2
NO 111·NY 117
+4pp
Q4·1:11
Jalen Brunson makes technical free throw
NO 111·NY 116
+1pp
Q4·1:11
Herbert Jones technical foul
NO 111·NY 115
−2pp
Q4·1:11
Dejounte Murray shooting foulBIG MOMENT
NO 111·NY 115
+7pp
Q4·1:41
Zion Williamson makes 2-foot two point shot (Dejounte Murray assists)
·
NO 111·NY 115
−3pp
Q4·2:00
Josh Hart makes two point shot (Jalen Brunson assists)
·
NO 109·NY 115
+4pp

Team stats

Away

Stat

Home

45-88

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

44-85

FG %

15-34

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-33

11-13

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

20-22

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

NY -8.5·O/U 229.5·NO +280/NY -355

DraftKings · via ESPN

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 8 players in cohort

Jalen BrunsonNY · G
TOUCHES89.699
Josh HartNY · G
DEFL4.197
OG AnunobyNY · F
CONT8.496
Mitchell RobinsonNY · C
TS%67.695
Karl-Anthony TownsNY · C
CONT7.694

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · NO favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NY vs NO.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

175

projections · 145 high confidence

Points

Jalen BrunsonNY
27.4± 9.6high
Trey Murphy IIINO
20.0± 6.2high
Jeremiah FearsNO
19.9± 10.9high

Rebounds

Karl-Anthony TownsNY
10.8± 3.1high
Josh HartNY
8.4± 3.0high
Derik QueenNO
8.1± 5.6high

Assists

Dejounte MurrayNO
6.4± 4.4low
Jalen BrunsonNY
6.2± 3.2high
Josh HartNY
4.6± 1.9high

Blocks

Yves MissiNO
1.8± 1.5high
Derik QueenNO
1.0± 0.9high
OG AnunobyNY
1.0± 1.0high

Steals

Dejounte MurrayNO
1.6± 0.9low
Jeremiah FearsNO
1.5± 1.1high
Josh HartNY
1.5± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

52.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.9%

46.6%

FG%

47.0

▶

48.0%

115.5

PPG

114.9

116.4

25.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.0

13.5

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR