NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+9SAC

SAC

13-46

123114

MEM

21-35

NBAMon, Feb 23FinalSeriesMEM wins series 3-1VegasMEM -2.5

SAC · top performer

Precious Achiuwa

PF · #9

21.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MEM · top performer

Javon Small

G · #10

24.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowSAC ↔ MEM

Biggest swing: 11pp · 4th Quarter · 9:46

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. AchiuwaPF · #9	33	22	10-15	—	2-3	+7	12	0
K. MurrayF · #13	34	6	2-10	1-4	1-3	+11	5	5
M. RaynaudC · #42	28	10	5-9	—	—	+10	13	2
R. WestbrookG · #18	33	25	8-17	3-7	6-7	+9	2	7
D. DeRozanG · #10	29	19	7-9	—	5-6	+1	2	4
Bench
M. MonkG · #0	19	10	4-10	1-4	1-1	+3	0	2
D. PlowdenG · #29	26	19	6-12	4-9	3-4	-4	5	1
K. HayesG · #3	11	0	0-4	0-4	—	+6	0	4
N. CliffordG · #5	28	12	5-8	1-1	1-1	+2	6	5
Team		123	47-94	10-29	19-25		45	30
DNP: D. McDermott, D. Eubanks, D. Cardwell

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. ProsperF · #18	25	17	7-9	0-1	3-3	-12	3	1
G. JacksonF · #45	26	16	6-12	3-4	1-2	-12	6	1
J. WellsF · #0	26	12	5-11	0-4	2-2	-7	3	2
S. Pippen Jr.G · #1	22	6	0-8	0-4	6-6	-9	2	8
C. SpencerG · #24	22	7	3-7	1-3	—	-12	3	3
Bench
T. HendricksF · #22	25	12	5-10	2-5	—	+3	3	1
J. MashackG · #21	22	4	2-6	0-1	—	+5	1	1
J. SmallG · #10	25	21	6-8	4-5	5-6	-1	6	9
W. Clayton Jr.G · #4	21	9	3-7	2-5	1-1	+5	1	6
R. RupertG · #32	26	10	5-9	0-2	—	-5	9	1
Team		114	42-87	12-34	18-20		37	33
DNP: K. Anderson, C. Coward

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

SAC

Away

Stat

MEM

Home

47-94

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

42-87

FG %

10-29

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-34

19-25

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

18-20

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MEM wins series 3-1

Nov 21

SAC96@

MEM137

Dec 1

MEM115@

SAC107

Feb 5

MEM129@

SAC125

Feb 24

SAC123@

MEM114today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MEM -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

233.5

High-scoring · +7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SAC+12045%

MEM-14259%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MEM -2.5↗SpreadBet MEM -2.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

233.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SAC beat MEM 123-114. P. Achiuwa led with 22 PTS, 12 REB, 0 AST. SAC outscored the other side 33-25 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MEM vs SAC

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SACstarters 67% of pts

Starters(5)

82 PTS · 34 REB · 18 AST

GS 78

Bench(4)

41 PTS · 11 REB · 12 AST

GS 31

MEMstarters 51% of pts

Starters(5)

58 PTS · 17 REB · 15 AST

GS 44

Bench(5)

56 PTS · 20 REB · 18 AST

GS 53

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SAC3rd Quarter · 56.7 · 91-87

+9pp→ 64% WP

Olivier-Maxence Prosper · shooting foul

MEM4th Quarter · 11:06 · 94-89

+9pp→ 48% WP

Killian Hayes · shooting foul

SAC4th Quarter · 9:46 · 97-91

+11pp→ 69% WP

Daeqwon Plowden · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Killian Hayes assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
SAC	33	30	29	31	123
MEM	25	36	28	25	114

Period scoring

SAC won 3 · MEM won 1

Raynaud 8

Prosper 7

Westbrook 9

Small 8

DeRozan 9

Small 10

Plowden 10

Hendricks 10

SAC

MEM

Shooting comparison

SAC

MEM

50%

47-94

48%

42-87

34%

10-29

3PT

35%

12-34

76%

19-25

90%

18-20

Play-by-play · 475 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
SAC 123·MEM 114
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SAC 123·MEM 114
Q4·8.9
Walter Clayton Jr. bad pass turnover (Russell Westbrook steals)
·
SAC 123·MEM 114
Q4·10.4
Cam Spencer enters the game for Taylor Hendricks
·
SAC 123·MEM 114
Q4·10.4
Grizzlies Full timeout
SAC 123·MEM 114
Q4·10.4
Precious Achiuwa makes finger roll layup (Russell Westbrook assists)
·
SAC 123·MEM 114
−1pp
Q4·34.0
GG Jackson enters the game for Jahmai Mashack
·
SAC 121·MEM 114
Q4·34.0
Jaylen Wells offensive foul turnover
SAC 121·MEM 114
Q4·34.0
Jaylen Wells offensive foul
SAC 121·MEM 114
−2pp
Q4·41.0
Javon Small defensive rebound
SAC 121·MEM 114
Q4·44.1
Russell Westbrook misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
SAC 121·MEM 114
+0.7pp
Q4·1:02
Taylor Hendricks bad pass turnover (DeMar DeRozan steals)
·
SAC 121·MEM 114
−3pp
Q4·1:05
Taylor Hendricks defensive rebound
SAC 121·MEM 114
+0.5pp
Q4·1:08
Keegan Murray misses 10-foot pullup jump shot
SAC 121·MEM 114
+1pp
Q4·1:29
Taylor Hendricks makes 23-foot three point jumper (Javon Small assists)
·
SAC 121·MEM 114
+2pp
Q4·1:31
Jaylen Wells offensive rebound
SAC 121·MEM 111
+0.5pp
Q4·1:34
Jahmai Mashack misses two point shot
SAC 121·MEM 111
−0.9pp
Q4·1:53
DeMar DeRozan makes 13-foot pullup jump shot
SAC 121·MEM 111
−2pp
Q4·2:14
Taylor Hendricks makes two point shot
SAC 119·MEM 111
+1pp
Q4·2:14
Taylor Hendricks offensive rebound
SAC 119·MEM 109
+0.6pp
Q4·2:20
Jaylen Wells misses 27-foot running jump shot
SAC 119·MEM 109
−0.8pp
Q4·2:23
Javon Small defensive rebound
SAC 119·MEM 109
Q4·2:26
Precious Achiuwa misses 9-foot floating jump shot
SAC 119·MEM 109
+0.5pp
Q4·2:46
Russell Westbrook defensive rebound
SAC 119·MEM 109
Q4·2:48
Jahmai Mashack misses tip shot
SAC 119·MEM 109
−0.9pp
Q4·2:48
Jahmai Mashack offensive rebound
SAC 119·MEM 109
+0.8pp
Q4·2:53
Taylor Hendricks misses 25-foot three point jumper
SAC 119·MEM 109
−1pp
Q4·3:11
Russell Westbrook makes free throw 3 of 3
SAC 119·MEM 109
Q4·3:11
Kings offensive team rebound
SAC 118·MEM 109
+1pp
Q4·3:11
Russell Westbrook misses free throw 2 of 3
SAC 118·MEM 109

Betting line

MEM -2.5·O/U 233.5·SAC +120/MEM -142

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

acramento Kings went into Memphis Grizzlies and beat them, 123–114.

SAC +2.5 cashed (MEM lost outright). Total cleared the 233.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Keegan MurraySAC · F
CONT7.894
Olivier-Maxence ProsperMEM · F
TS%66.293
Maxime RaynaudSAC · C
CONT7.593
Jahmai MashackMEM · G
DEFL393
Russell WestbrookSAC · G
DRIVES11.692

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · SAC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MEM vs SAC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 120 high confidence

Points

Ty JeromeMEM
18.9± 4.2medium
DeMar DeRozanSAC
18.0± 12.6high
Zach LaVineSAC
17.6± 7.7high

Rebounds

Zach EdeyMEM
11.3± 7.8low
Domantas SabonisSAC
10.6± 3.5high
Maxime RaynaudSAC
8.3± 2.4high

Assists

Ty JeromeMEM
5.4± 2.7medium
DeMar DeRozanSAC
4.8± 3.7high
Walter Clayton Jr.MEM
4.7± 2.9high

Blocks

Zach EdeyMEM
1.9± 2.3low
Dylan CardwellSAC
1.7± 1.7high
Keegan MurraySAC
1.4± 0.8high

Steals

Scotty Pippen Jr.MEM
1.9± 2.1low
Taylor HendricksMEM
1.5± 2.0high
Jahmai MashackMEM
1.3± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

SAC

league avg

MEM

52.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

53.3%

46.7%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.6%

111.0

PPG

114.9

▶

114.7

25.5

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.8

13.7

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR