NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+16TOR

CHI

24-28

107123

TOR

31-22

NBAThu, Feb 5FinalSeriesTOR leads series 1-0VegasTOR -7.5

CHI · top performer

Guerschon Yabusele

F · #28

16.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

TOR · top performer

Brandon Ingram

F · #3

28.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCHI ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 7pp · 3rd Quarter · 6:51

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. SmithF · #25	24	13	6-11	0-3	1-2	-6	9	1
I. OkoroF · #35	30	10	3-8	0-4	4-4	-21	2	1
M. BuzelisF · #14	33	18	7-11	2-6	2-2	-19	6	3
A. SimonsG · #4	32	22	8-15	6-13	—	-10	2	3
J. IveyG · #31	33	13	5-12	3-5	—	-9	4	6
Bench
G. YabuseleF · #28	33	15	6-11	3-6	—	-4	11	3
P. WilliamsF · #44	25	9	3-12	3-8	—	-7	1	2
M. McClungG · #5	13	4	2-7	0-2	—	-7	1	1
Y. KawamuraG · #8	12	3	1-4	1-2	—	+3	2	7
Olbrich	--	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
Team		107	41-91	18-49	7-8		38	28
DNP: T. Jones, J. Giddey

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. IngramF · #3	35	33	12-20	5-9	4-4	+7	6	6
S. BarnesF · #4	32	13	6-11	1-3	—	+10	6	7
C. Murray-BoylesF · #12	37	17	8-9	—	1-2	+20	5	4
I. QuickleyG · #5	31	24	9-20	3-11	3-3	+14	2	5
J. WalterG · #14	31	12	6-9	0-1	—	+14	5	2
Bench
S. MamukelashviliF · #54	23	17	5-9	4-6	3-4	+3	5	1
J. BattleF · #77	14	2	1-3	0-1	—	+7	1	1
J. MogboF · #2	0	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
A.J. LawsonG · #0	0	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
J. SheadG · #23	22	3	1-3	1-2	—	+7	4	8
A. MartinG · #55	2	0	—	—	—	+1	0	0
G. DickG · #1	12	2	1-3	0-1	—	-3	1	1
Team		123	49-87	14-34	11-13		35	35
DNP: G. Temple

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CHI

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

41-91

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

49-87

FG %

18-49

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-34

7-8

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

11-13

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

TOR leads series 1-0

Feb 6

CHI107@

TOR123today

Feb 20

TOR110@

CHI101

Mar 19

TOR139@

CHI109

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

Total

227.5

Standard · +1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHI+25029%

TOR-31076%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -7.5↗SpreadBet TOR -7.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

0.0 since open

Total

227.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TOR beat CHI 123-107. B. Ingram paced them with 33 PTS, 6 REB, 6 AST. TOR outscored the other side 33-25 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

TOR vs CHI

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CHIstarters 71% of pts

Starters(5)

76 PTS · 23 REB · 14 AST

GS 62

Bench(5)

31 PTS · 15 REB · 13 AST

GS 24

TORstarters 80% of pts

Starters(5)

99 PTS · 24 REB · 24 AST

GS 88

Bench(7)

24 PTS · 11 REB · 11 AST

GS 31

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CHI3rd Quarter · 6:51 · 76-76

+7pp→ 37% WP

Matas Buzelis · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaden Ivey assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CHI	25	33	30	19	107
TOR	33	32	35	23	123

Period scoring

CHI won 1 · TOR won 3

Buzelis 6

Ingram 12

Simons 8

Ingram 10

Simons 8

Quickley 10

Smith 6

Battle 14

CHI

TOR

Shooting comparison

CHI

TOR

45%

41-91

56%

49-87

37%

18-49

3PT

41%

14-34

88%

7-8

85%

11-13

Play-by-play · 435 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHI 107·TOR 123
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHI 107·TOR 123
Q4·3.9
Yuki Kawamura bad pass turnover (Jonathan Mogbo steals)
·
CHI 107·TOR 123
Q4·26.2
Jonathan Mogbo enters the game for Collin Murray-Boyles
·
CHI 107·TOR 123
Q4·26.2
A.J. Lawson enters the game for Immanuel Quickley
·
CHI 107·TOR 123
Q4·26.2
Ja'Kobe Walter personal take foul
CHI 107·TOR 123
Q4·28.1
Collin Murray-Boyles makes layup (Jamison Battle assists)
·
CHI 107·TOR 123
Q4·51.6
Patrick Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Lachlan Olbrich assists)
·
CHI 107·TOR 121
Q4·1:13
Immanuel Quickley makes 17-foot two point shot
CHI 104·TOR 121
Q4·1:36
Alijah Martin enters the game for Brandon Ingram
·
CHI 104·TOR 119
Q4·1:36
Jamison Battle enters the game for Scottie Barnes
·
CHI 104·TOR 119
Q4·1:36
shot clock turnover
CHI 104·TOR 119
Q4·1:37
Bulls offensive team rebound
CHI 104·TOR 119
Q4·1:38
Yuki Kawamura misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
CHI 104·TOR 119
Q4·1:46
Mac McClung enters the game for Jaden Ivey
·
CHI 104·TOR 119
Q4·1:46
Lachlan Olbrich enters the game for Matas Buzelis
·
CHI 104·TOR 119
Q4·1:46
Yuki Kawamura enters the game for Anfernee Simons
·
CHI 104·TOR 119
Q4·1:46
Ja'Kobe Walter enters the game for Jamal Shead
·
CHI 104·TOR 119
Q4·1:46
Bulls Full timeout
CHI 104·TOR 119
Q4·1:48
Matas Buzelis offensive rebound
CHI 104·TOR 119
Q4·1:50
Matas Buzelis misses running pullup jump shot
CHI 104·TOR 119
Q4·1:56
Guerschon Yabusele defensive rebound
CHI 104·TOR 119
Q4·2:01
Brandon Ingram misses 26-foot three point jumper
CHI 104·TOR 119
Q4·2:18
Anfernee Simons out of bounds lost ball turnover
CHI 104·TOR 119
Q4·2:34
Immanuel Quickley makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brandon Ingram assists)
·
CHI 104·TOR 119
Q4·2:45
Collin Murray-Boyles offensive rebound
CHI 104·TOR 116
Q4·2:46
Immanuel Quickley misses 27-foot three point jumper
CHI 104·TOR 116
Q4·3:01
Brandon Ingram defensive rebound
CHI 104·TOR 116
Q4·3:04
Collin Murray-Boyles blocks Jaden Ivey 's 7-foot running pullup jump shot
·
CHI 104·TOR 116
Q4·3:11
Jaden Ivey defensive rebound
CHI 104·TOR 116

Betting line

TOR -7.5·O/U 227.5·CHI +250/TOR -310

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

oronto Raptors held off Chicago Bulls, 123–107.

TOR -7.5 cashed (won by 16). Total cleared the 227.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Scottie BarnesTOR · F
DRIVES16.799
Ja'Kobe WalterTOR · G
DEFL3.496
Matas BuzelisCHI · F
CONT7.995
Collin Murray-BoylesTOR · F
DEFL3.195
Immanuel QuickleyTOR · G
TOUCHES7294

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CHI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CHI

league avg

TOR

54.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

54.5%

46.9%

FG%

47.0

▶

48.1%

116.3

PPG

◀

114.9

114.3

28.5

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.2

14.6

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR