NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+13TOR

TOR

27-19

122109

SAC

12-33

NBAWed, Jan 21FinalSeriesTOR leads series 1-0VegasTOR -5.5

TOR · top performer

Scottie Barnes

F · #4

22.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SAC · top performer

Malik Monk

G · #0

13.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowTOR ↔ SAC

Biggest swing: 39pp · 3rd Quarter · 5:45

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. IngramF · #3	35	23	7-15	3-5	6-6	+13	3	4
S. MamukelashviliF · #54	32	22	8-14	3-8	3-4	+15	9	4
S. BarnesF · #4	32	23	8-17	1-3	6-6	+8	8	7
I. QuickleyG · #5	36	18	6-12	1-4	5-5	+15	6	8
J. SheadG · #23	33	15	5-12	3-5	2-2	+13	5	6
Bench
J. BattleF · #77	8	3	1-3	1-2	—	-6	3	0
J. MogboF · #2	23	3	1-5	—	1-2	+2	9	0
A.J. LawsonG · #0	3	0	—	—	—	-4	1	0
O. AgbajiG · #30	20	4	2-4	—	—	+21	2	1
G. DickG · #1	19	11	5-12	1-6	—	-12	1	0
Team		122	43-94	13-33	23-25		47	30
DNP: G. Temple, A. Martin

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. AchiuwaPF · #9	21	11	5-6	1-1	—	-9	8	1
M. RaynaudC · #42	22	8	3-7	0-1	2-2	-13	7	2
R. WestbrookG · #18	35	23	9-22	2-8	3-3	-16	3	3
D. DeRozanG · #10	33	9	3-8	0-1	3-5	-23	1	2
Z. LaVineG · #8	38	19	7-17	2-8	3-4	-14	1	5
Bench
D. CardwellC · #32	25	2	1-2	—	—	+4	13	3
D. SchroderG · #17	20	16	5-13	1-6	5-6	+9	1	3
M. MonkG · #0	25	17	6-7	3-4	2-2	-10	4	3
N. CliffordG · #5	21	4	2-6	0-4	—	+7	7	3
Team		109	41-88	9-33	18-22		45	25
DNP: D. McDermott, D. Saric, D. Eubanks, D. Carter, K. Ellis

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

SAC

Home

43-94

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

41-88

FG %

13-33

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-33

23-25

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

18-22

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

TOR leads series 1-0

Jan 22

TOR122@

SAC109today

Apr 2

SAC123@

TOR115

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

226.5

Standard · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR-20567%

SAC+17037%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -5.5↗SpreadBet TOR -5.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

226.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TOR beat SAC 122-109. S. Barnes led with 23 PTS, 8 REB, 7 AST. TOR outscored the other side 43-21 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SAC vs TOR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

TORstarters 83% of pts

Starters(5)

101 PTS · 31 REB · 29 AST

GS 96

Bench(5)

21 PTS · 16 REB · 1 AST

GS 14

SACstarters 64% of pts

Starters(5)

70 PTS · 20 REB · 13 AST

GS 50

Bench(4)

39 PTS · 25 REB · 12 AST

GS 38

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

TOR1st Quarter · 4:29 · 20-14

+17pp→ 78% WP

Dennis Schroder · enters the game for Russell Westbrook

SAC3rd Quarter · 8:39 · 64-71

+11pp→ 67% WP

Precious Achiuwa · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)

TOR3rd Quarter · 5:45 · 75-75

+39pp→ 59% WP

Malik Monk · enters the game for Precious Achiuwa

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
TOR	26	26	43	27	122
SAC	30	31	21	27	109

Period scoring

TOR won 1 · SAC won 2

Ingram 7

Schroder 13

Mamukelashvili 6

Monk 8

Barnes 14

Monk 21

Quickley 7

Schroder 9

TOR

SAC

Shooting comparison

TOR

SAC

46%

43-94

47%

41-88

39%

13-33

3PT

27%

9-33

92%

23-25

82%

18-22

Play-by-play · 480 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
TOR 122·SAC 109
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
TOR 122·SAC 109
Q4·11.2
shot clock turnover
TOR 122·SAC 109
Q4·25.3
Dennis Schroder personal foul
TOR 122·SAC 109
Q4·43.1
Raptors defensive team rebound
TOR 122·SAC 109
Q4·46.4
Zach LaVine misses 25-foot three point jumper
TOR 122·SAC 109
Q4·55.8
Immanuel Quickley makes 27-foot three pointer (Scottie Barnes assists)
·
TOR 122·SAC 109
Q4·1:07
Ochai Agbaji defensive rebound
TOR 119·SAC 109
Q4·1:07
(01:07) [Raptors] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Raptors] retain their timeout
TOR 119·SAC 109
−2pp
Q4·1:07
Raptors Full timeout
TOR 119·SAC 109
+1pp
Q4·1:09
Zach LaVine misses driving layup
TOR 119·SAC 109
Q4·1:13
Ochai Agbaji makes 2-foot alley oop dunk (Scottie Barnes assists)
·
TOR 119·SAC 109
−1pp
Q4·1:32
Dennis Schroder makes running layup (Nique Clifford assists)
·
TOR 117·SAC 109
+0.7pp
Q4·1:35
Nique Clifford defensive rebound
TOR 117·SAC 107
Q4·1:38
Scottie Barnes misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
TOR 117·SAC 107
Q4·2:07
Russell Westbrook makes driving layup
TOR 117·SAC 107
Q4·2:13
Scottie Barnes makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 117·SAC 105
Q4·2:13
Scottie Barnes makes free throw 1 of 2
TOR 116·SAC 105
Q4·2:13
Zach LaVine shooting foul
TOR 115·SAC 105
−0.8pp
Q4·2:22
Raptors offensive team rebound
TOR 115·SAC 105
−0.6pp
Q4·2:22
Brandon Ingram misses driving floating jump shot
TOR 115·SAC 105
Q4·2:42
Russell Westbrook bad pass turnover (Immanuel Quickley steals)
·
TOR 115·SAC 105
−0.8pp
Q4·2:43
Jamal Shead bad pass turnover (Russell Westbrook steals)
·
TOR 115·SAC 105
+0.8pp
Q4·2:45
Raptors offensive team rebound
TOR 115·SAC 105
−0.7pp
Q4·2:45
Dylan Cardwell blocks Jamal Shead 's 12-foot driving floating jump shot
·
TOR 115·SAC 105
+0.6pp
Q4·2:54
Dylan Cardwell bad pass turnover (Immanuel Quickley steals)
·
TOR 115·SAC 105
−0.9pp
Q4·2:55
Dylan Cardwell offensive rebound
TOR 115·SAC 105
+0.6pp
Q4·2:56
Dennis Schroder misses driving floating jump shot
TOR 115·SAC 105
−1pp
Q4·3:11
Brandon Ingram makes 18-foot jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)
·
TOR 115·SAC 105
−2pp
Q4·3:27
Immanuel Quickley enters the game for Gradey Dick
·
TOR 113·SAC 105

Betting line

TOR -5.5·O/U 226.5·TOR -205/SAC +170

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

oronto Raptors went into Sacramento Kings and beat them, 122–109.

TOR -5.5 cashed (won by 13). Total cleared the 226.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Scottie BarnesTOR · F
DRIVES16.799
Immanuel QuickleyTOR · G
TOUCHES7294
Maxime RaynaudSAC · C
CONT7.593
Russell WestbrookSAC · G
DRIVES11.692
Dylan CardwellSAC · C
CONT6.891

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

TOR

league avg

SAC

54.5%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.5%

48.1%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.7%

114.3

PPG

◀

114.9

111.0

29.2

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.5

13.0

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR