NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1MEM

25-11

105106

MEM

16-20

NBATue, Jan 6FinalSeriesSA leads series 2-1VegasSA -5.5

SA · top performer

Victor Wembanyama

F · #1

22.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MEM · top performer

Cam Spencer

G · #24

23.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowSA ↔ MEM

Biggest swing: 23pp · 4th Quarter · 5.2

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
H. BarnesF · #40	20	2	1-6	0-3	—	+1	3	1
J. ChampagnieF · #30	32	23	7-11	5-8	4-5	+15	8	2
L. KornetC · #7	27	4	2-5	—	—	-3	7	3
D. FoxG · #4	30	9	4-18	1-8	—	-18	5	8
S. CastleG · #5	28	15	5-14	2-4	3-4	-3	8	4
Bench
K. OlynykF · #8	9	0	0-1	0-1	—	-12	1	0
K. JohnsonF · #3	28	13	5-13	2-8	1-1	+10	5	0
J. SochanF · #10	14	2	1-4	0-3	—	+6	6	1
C. BryantF · #11	9	0	0-2	0-1	—	-11	0	0
V. WembanyamaF · #1	21	30	10-20	3-6	7-8	+2	5	3
J. McLaughlinG · #0	4	3	1-1	1-1	—	+2	0	1
D. HarperG · #2	18	4	2-7	0-3	—	+6	2	3
Team		105	38-102	14-46	15-18		50	26
DNP: L. Waters III, B. Biyombo

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. Jackson Jr.F · #8	36	21	7-16	5-7	2-2	+21	9	2
GG JacksonF · #45	23	2	1-6	0-3	—	+17	7	1
J. WellsF · #0	28	8	2-11	2-7	2-4	-17	3	2
J. LandaleC · #31	24	19	8-15	3-7	0-2	-4	9	2
C. SpencerG · #24	30	21	8-15	3-8	2-3	+11	8	8
Bench
S. AldamaF · #7	24	10	3-10	1-6	3-3	-23	9	2
C. KolokoC · #35	18	4	2-4	—	—	+12	6	1
K. Caldwell-PopeG · #3	20	6	3-8	0-3	—	-17	3	3
V. Williams Jr.G · #5	22	15	5-7	4-6	1-1	+15	6	5
J. SmallG · #10	16	0	0-6	0-2	—	-10	1	2
Team		106	39-98	18-49	10-15		61	28
DNP: C. Coward, J. Konchar

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

MEM

Home

38-102

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

39-98

FG %

14-46

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

18-49

15-18

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

10-15

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

SA leads series 2-1

Nov 19

MEM101@

SA111

Dec 3

MEM119@

SA126

Jan 7

SA105@

MEM106today

Mar 26

SA123@

MEM98

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SA -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

237.5

High-scoring · +11.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SA-24571%

MEM+20033%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SA -5.5↗SpreadBet SA -5.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

237.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MEM beat SA 106-105. C. Spencer led with 21 PTS, 8 REB, 8 AST. SA outscored the other side 31-21 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MEM vs SA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SAstarters 50% of pts

Starters(5)

53 PTS · 31 REB · 18 AST

GS 41

Bench(7)

52 PTS · 19 REB · 8 AST

GS 36

MEMstarters 67% of pts

Starters(5)

71 PTS · 36 REB · 15 AST

GS 54

Bench(5)

35 PTS · 25 REB · 13 AST

GS 29

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SA4th Quarter · 3:46 · 98-97

+15pp→ 52% WP

Victor Wembanyama · makes 25-foot running jump shot (Stephon Castle assists)

SA4th Quarter · 2:28 · 103-101

+17pp→ 61% WP

De'Aaron Fox · makes 25-foot three pointer (Luke Kornet assists)

MEM4th Quarter · 5.2 · 105-106

+23pp→ 89% WP

Santi Aldama · blocks De'Aaron Fox 's 14-foot step back jumpshot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
SA	31	23	27	24	105
MEM	21	25	36	24	106

Period scoring

SA won 1 · MEM won 2

Champagnie 15

Landale 8

Wembanyama 5

Olynyk 11

Wembanyama 12

Jr. 9

Johnson 8

Jr. 21

MEM

Shooting comparison

MEM

37%

38-102

40%

39-98

30%

14-46

3PT

37%

18-49

83%

15-18

67%

10-15

Play-by-play · 541 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
SA 105·MEM 106
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th QuarterBIG MOMENT
SA 105·MEM 106
+9pp
Q4·5.2
Cam Spencer defensive rebound
SA 105·MEM 106
+2pp
Q4·5.2
Santi Aldama blocks De'Aaron Fox 's 14-foot step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
·
SA 105·MEM 106
+23pp
Q4·14.3
Jeremy Sochan defensive rebound
SA 105·MEM 106
+1pp
Q4·15.6
Jock Landale misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
SA 105·MEM 106
−14pp
Q4·15.6
Grizzlies offensive team rebound
SA 105·MEM 106
−4pp
Q4·15.6
Jock Landale misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
SA 105·MEM 106
−6pp
Q4·15.6
Jeremy Sochan personal foulBIG MOMENT
SA 105·MEM 106
+14pp
Q4·23.6
Jock Landale defensive rebound
SA 105·MEM 106
+5pp
Q4·25.9
Jeremy Sochan misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
SA 105·MEM 106
+14pp
Q4·37.3
Cam Spencer makes 18-foot step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
SA 105·MEM 106
+8pp
Q4·49.0
Jock Landale offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
SA 105·MEM 104
+9pp
Q4·51.1
Santi Aldama misses 26-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
SA 105·MEM 104
−8pp
Q4·1:01
Vince Williams Jr. defensive rebound
SA 105·MEM 104
+3pp
Q4·1:06
De'Aaron Fox misses 15-foot step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
SA 105·MEM 104
+7pp
Q4·1:26
Cam Spencer makes 27-foot three pointer (Vince Williams Jr. assists)
·
SA 105·MEM 104
−2pp
Q4·1:39
Santi Aldama enters the game for Jaylen Wells
·
SA 105·MEM 101
Q4·1:39
Grizzlies Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
SA 105·MEM 101
+17pp
Q4·1:39
De'Aaron Fox makes 7-foot floating jump shot (Jeremy Sochan assists)BIG MOMENT
·
SA 105·MEM 101
−7pp
Q4·1:43
Jeremy Sochan defensive rebound
SA 103·MEM 101
−3pp
Q4·1:47
De'Aaron Fox blocks Jaylen Wells 's 2-foot running layupBIG MOMENT
·
SA 103·MEM 101
−8pp
Q4·1:50
Cam Spencer defensive rebound
SA 103·MEM 101
+2pp
Q4·1:55
De'Aaron Fox misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
SA 103·MEM 101
+7pp
Q4·2:05
Julian Champagnie defensive rebound
SA 103·MEM 101
−2pp
Q4·2:07
Jaren Jackson Jr. misses 11-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
·
SA 103·MEM 101
−7pp
Q4·2:28
De'Aaron Fox makes 25-foot three pointer (Luke Kornet assists)BIG MOMENT
·
SA 103·MEM 101
−17pp
Q4·2:44
Jock Landale makes alley oop layup (Jaylen Wells assists)BIG MOMENT
·
SA 100·MEM 101
+8pp
Q4·2:56
De'Aaron Fox makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot (Luke Kornet assists)BIG MOMENT
·
SA 100·MEM 99
−8pp
Q4·3:13
Jaren Jackson Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
·
SA 98·MEM 99
−6pp

Betting line

SA -5.5·O/U 237.5·SA -245/MEM +200

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

emphis Grizzlies held off San Antonio Spurs, 106–105. It came down to the final possession.

MEM +5.5 cashed (SA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 237.5 by 26.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.898
Luke KornetSA · C
TS%68.797
Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH · F
CONT9.197
Stephon CastleSA · G
TOUCHES71.594
Cam SpencerMEM · G
TS%64.992

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · SA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MEM vs SA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 115 high confidence

Points

Ty JeromeMEM
18.9± 4.2medium
Tobias HarrisSA
16.3± 7.8high
Stephon CastleSA
16.2± 5.2high

Rebounds

Zach EdeyMEM
11.3± 7.8low
Tobias HarrisSA
6.4± 1.8high
Julian ChampagnieSA
5.6± 2.5high

Assists

De'Aaron FoxSA
6.1± 1.3high
Stephon CastleSA
6.1± 1.7high
Ty JeromeMEM
5.4± 2.7medium

Blocks

Zach EdeyMEM
1.9± 2.3low
GG JacksonMEM
0.9± 0.7high
Taylor HendricksMEM
0.7± 1.1high

Steals

Scotty Pippen Jr.MEM
1.9± 2.1low
Taylor HendricksMEM
1.5± 2.0high
De'Aaron FoxSA
1.4± 1.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

MEM

55.3%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.3%

47.7%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.6%

118.2

PPG

◀

114.9

114.7

27.3

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.8

12.8

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR