Seattle Storm at Phoenix Mercury
SEA
3-13
PHX
4-12
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
eattle Storm visit Phoenix Mercury Thursday at 7/2 - 10:00 PM EDT.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Season series
PHX leads series 1-0
PHX72@SEA68SEA@PHXupcomingSEA@PHXtodayScouting report
SEA @ PHX
Tale of the tape
3-13
Record
4-12
#8
Conf rank
#7
-6.6
Pt diff
-5.0
L9
Streak
L4
1-9
Last 10
2-8
80.0
Sched ahead
62.2
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Team stats
SEA
Away
Stat
PHX
Home
41
FG %
42
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
43.9%
ensemble · SEA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
31%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PHX vs SEA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kahleah CopperPHX19.6± 10.1medium
- Natisha HiedemanSEA15.7± 6.3medium
- Dominique MalongaSEA14.6± 9.9low
Rebounds
- Natasha MackPHX8.1± 3.4medium
- Dominique MalongaSEA7.1± 3.7low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX6.9± 3.2medium
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.3± 2.7medium
- Natisha HiedemanSEA4.4± 2.0medium
- Jade MelbourneSEA3.5± 2.8medium
Blocks
- Natasha MackPHX1.4± 1.2medium
- Dominique MalongaSEA1.1± 1.6low
- Jordan HorstonSEA0.8± 1.5medium
Steals
- Monique Akoa MakaniPHX1.6± 1.0low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX1.5± 1.4medium
- Jordan HorstonSEA1.3± 1.7medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
SEA
league avg
PHX
41.1%
FG%
44.5
▶42.3%
33.4%
3PT %
33.3
32.3%
77.2
PPG
85.5
▶81.8
18.0
Assists / G
18.0
▶18.9
14.1
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶13.4