Dallas Wings at Connecticut Sun
DAL
9-6
CON
2-14
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
allas Wings visit Connecticut Sun Thursday at 7/2 - 8:00 PM EDT. DAL is 5-3 in their last 8.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Season series
Series starts 7/2
DAL@CONtodayCON@DALupcomingCON@DALupcomingScouting report
DAL @ CON
Tale of the tape
9-6
Record
2-14
#4
Conf rank
#7
+4.9
Pt diff
-11.0
L1
Streak
L6
6-4
Last 10
1-9
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Team stats
DAL
Away
Stat
CON
Home
46
FG %
42
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
43.9%
ensemble · DAL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
31%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CON vs DAL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Paige BueckersDAL18.2± 8.8medium
- Arike OgunbowaleDAL14.8± 11.8medium
- Jessica ShepardDAL13.9± 5.4medium
Rebounds
- Jessica ShepardDAL11.8± 4.2medium
- Aneesah MorrowCON10.2± 5.1medium
- Brittney GrinerCON4.5± 2.6low
Assists
- Paige BueckersDAL6.1± 4.0medium
- Jessica ShepardDAL5.1± 3.5medium
- Leila LacanCON5.0± 2.8low
Blocks
- Brittney GrinerCON1.4± 1.6low
- Awak KuierDAL1.1± 1.2low
- Azzi FuddDAL1.1± 1.3medium
Steals
- Leila LacanCON1.7± 1.5low
- Azzi FuddDAL1.6± 1.6medium
- Aziaha JamesDAL1.4± 1.4medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
DAL
league avg
CON
45.8%
FG%
44.5
42.4%
34.1%
3PT %
33.3
25.9%
87.6
PPG
85.5
78.1
23.1
Assists / G
18.0
18.6
10.3
Turnovers / G
13.0
13.8