Recent form
5-5
LAD +0.3 vs STL -2.0 margin
LAD brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers
STL
STL
69-70
PregameThu, 10:10 PM EDTMLB.TV
LAD
LAD
82-56
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketDodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Quinn Mathews
SP · #60
1-2
W-L
5.03
ERA
1.58
WHIP
20
K
19.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsPITW(1-2)5.2 IP1 ER7 K
@PHIL(0-2)5.0 IP7 ER3 K
@CIN-4.0 IP1 ER7 K
Home starter
Tarik Skubal
SP · #29
8-7
W-L
2.84
ERA
0.94
WHIP
153
K
126.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@DET-6.0 IP1 ER7 K
vsPITW(8-7)7.0 IP3 ER11 K
vsMILL(7-7)6.0 IP1 ER7 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob38% / 62%
LeanHome · 12pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesSTL leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Scouting report · pre-game
LAD vs STL.
LAD is 5-5 recently; STL is 3-7.
61.6%
model · LAD win prob
Recent form
- LAD5–5+0.3
- STL3–7-2.0
Situational
- LAD2d rest
- STL2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. LAD has 0 straight road games; STL has 1.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Tarik SkubalLAD7.6strikeouts · ±2.4
Tarik Skubal · 7.6 K · last-10 7.8 vs season 7.3.
- Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD6.6strikeouts · ±2.3
Yoshinobu Yamamoto · 6.6 K · last-10 6.7 vs season 6.4.
- Matthew LiberatoreSTL5.8strikeouts · ±2.1
Matthew Liberatore · 5.8 K · last-10 6.2 vs season 5.2.
Head-to-head · 0-1 · last 1
LAD is 0-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-09-01STL @ LAD13–8
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
62.1%
ensemble · LAD favored
Elo Static
60.7%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
63.3%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
61.4%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.09 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
93% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LAD vs STL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
133
projections · 115 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Tarik SkubalLAD7.6± 2.4high
- Blake SnellLAD7.2± 3.5low
- Tyler GlasnowLAD6.9± 3.0low
Hits
- Jordan WalkerSTL1.2± 1.2high
- Freddie FreemanLAD1.1± 0.9high
- Mookie BettsLAD1.0± 0.6high
Total bases
- Jordan WalkerSTL2.0± 2.4high
- Joshua BaezSTL1.7± 2.0medium
- Dalton RushingLAD1.6± 2.2high
RBIs
- Alec BurlesonSTL0.7± 0.8high
- Dalton RushingLAD0.6± 1.3high
- Mookie BettsLAD0.6± 1.3high
Earned runs
- Matthew LiberatoreSTL3.1± 2.4high
- Michael McGreevySTL2.9± 2.4high
- Eric LauerLAD2.8± 2.4high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
STL
league avg
LAD
.700
OPS
.719
▶.756
.316
OBP
.319
▶.335
4.48
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.91
4.24
Team ERA
4.17
▶3.69
1.34
WHIP
1.31
▶1.16
7.9
K / 9
8.5
▶9.3
The One modelEdge
Thu, Sep 3STL
Cardinals
81-75
vs61.6%LAD
LAD★
Dodgers
97-70
STL 38.4%win prob61.6% LAD
LAD 1546 · STL 1495Box score→
Team pages
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
