Park factor
95 total idx
T-Mobile Park run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Athletics at Seattle Mariners
ATH
ATH
53-86
PregameThu, 9:40 PM EDTMLB.TV
SEA
SEA
65-74
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketT-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
J.T. Ginn
SP · #35
9-8
W-L
3.71
ERA
1.24
WHIP
121
K
138.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsMINW(9-8)6.0 IP4 ER3 K
@HOUL(8-8)5.0 IP3 ER4 K
vsTEXL(8-7)6.0 IP4 ER7 K
Home starter
Kade Anderson
SP · #13
0-0
W-L
4.50
ERA
1.30
WHIP
8
K
10.0
IP
Last 2 starts
@TOR-4.1 IP2 ER3 K
vsCHC-5.2 IP3 ER5 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob37% / 63%
LeanHome · 13pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesSEA leads series 4-2
TypeRegular Season Series
Scouting report · pre-game
SEA vs ATH.
SEA is 4-6 recently; ATH is 4-6.
63.1%
model · SEA win prob
Recent form
- SEA4–6-2.5
- ATH4–6-1.2
Situational
- SEA2d rest
- ATH2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. SEA has 5 straight road games; ATH has 2.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.4 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.4pp
Players to watch
- Logan GilbertSEA6.0strikeouts · ±1.8
Logan Gilbert · 6 K · last-10 5.9 vs season 6.1.
- Bryan WooSEA5.7strikeouts · ±1.2
Bryan Woo · 5.7 K · last-10 5.7 vs season 5.7.
- Jacob LopezATH5.2strikeouts · ±2.5
Jacob Lopez · 5.2 K · last-10 5.8 vs season 4.4.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
62.9%
ensemble · SEA favored
Elo Static
64.4%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
63.5%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
63.8%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.37 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
98% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
SEA vs ATH.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
135
projections · 111 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Logan GilbertSEA6.0± 1.8high
- Gage JumpATH5.7± 3.7medium
- Bryan WooSEA5.7± 1.2high
Hits
- Henry BolteATH1.1± 1.2high
- Jeff McNeilATH1.1± 0.9high
- Lawrence ButlerATH1.1± 0.5high
Total bases
- Cal RaleighSEA2.4± 3.6high
- Randy ArozarenaSEA2.3± 3.4high
- Brian ServenATH1.7± 2.4medium
RBIs
- Brian ServenATH0.9± 1.2medium
- Randy ArozarenaSEA0.9± 1.6high
- Lawrence ButlerATH0.8± 0.7high
Earned runs
- Yunior TurATH4.3± 4.7low
- Jeffrey SpringsATH3.9± 1.9high
- Gage JumpATH3.3± 2.7medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
ATH
league avg
SEA
.718
OPS
◀
.719
.685
.319
OBP
◀
.319
.309
4.33
Runs / G
◀
4.50
3.94
5.48
Team ERA
4.17
▶4.19
1.50
WHIP
1.31
▶1.25
8.6
K / 9
8.5
8.6
The One modelEdge
Thu, Sep 3ATH
Athletics
62-100
vs63.1%SEA
SEA★
Mariners
76-90
ATH 36.9%win prob63.1% SEA
SEA 1472 · ATH 1392Box score→
Team pages
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
