MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1CHC

COL

27-46

CHC

38-35

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois

38,337 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHC spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

CHC no-vig %

64.5%

open 64.5%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

69.1%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
66.0%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
69.4%
P(CHC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
64.2%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.15 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-207

Close price

-207

Open no-vig

64.5%

Close no-vig

64.5%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+46.5pp

best edge · CHC · DraftKings

COL

no live price

CHC

★ best

+331DraftKings

edge +46.5pp · implied 22.0%

Book	COL	CHC	Best edge
DraftKings	-457	+331★	+46.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CHC vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

Shota ImanagaCHC
5.3± 3.7low
Edward CabreraCHC
4.9± 2.7low
Michael LorenzenCOL
4.0± 1.9medium

Hits

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
1.4± 1.2high
Troy JohnstonCOL
1.2± 1.0high
Willi CastroCOL
1.2± 1.4high

Total bases

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
2.7± 3.1high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
2.5± 3.7high
Cole CarriggCOL
2.3± 2.8low

RBIs

Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.8± 1.4high
Willi CastroCOL
0.8± 2.3high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
4.5± 3.2low
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.9± 2.8medium
Colin ReaCHC
3.3± 2.3medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

COL

league avg

CHC

.730

OPS

.717

.726

.322

OBP

.319

▶

.332

4.56

Runs / G

4.50

4.58

5.63

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.23

1.53

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.25

7.4

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

COL 4 · CHC 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHC +16pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
COL	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	4
CHC	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. Castro2B	.282	4	0	2	0	0	1	2
T. FreemanRF	.268	5	2	1	0	0	0	2
T. Rumfield1B	.275	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. GoodmanC	.255	3	1	2	0	0	1	0
E. TovarSS	.217	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. CarriggOF	.259	3	1	1	4	1	1	1
J. McCarthyCF	.281	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
K. Karros3B	.244	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. FulfordC	.219	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. JohnstonRF	.316	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. Julien2B	.226	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. SullivanC	.224	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		33	4	7	4	1	4	9

Player

.282

.268

.275

.255

.217

.259

.281

.244

.219

.316

.226

.224

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. LorenzenSP	5.0	5	1	1	1	5	89
A. SenzatelaRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	19
B. BernardinoRP	0.1	2	0	0	1	0	11
J. HillRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	2	16
V. VodnikRP	0.2	1	1	1	2	0	21
J. MejiaRP	0.1	0	2	1	2	1	20
S. HalvorsenRP	0.0	1	0	0	1	0	10
Team	8.0	10	5	4	9	8	186

Player

5.0

1.0

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.0

Team

8.0

186

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. Crow-ArmstrongCF	.277	4	1	4	2	1	0	0
A. Bregman3B	.253	4	0	2	0	0	1	0
M. Busch1B	.251	2	0	0	0	0	2	2
S. SuzukiRF	.251	3	1	0	0	0	2	2
I. HappLF	.219	5	1	0	0	0	0	1
N. Hoerner2B	.237	4	0	0	0	0	1	2
M. BallesterosDH	.232	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
M. ShawRF	.255	4	1	2	2	0	1	0
D. SwansonSS	.176	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. AmayaC	.219	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. Ramirez2B	.265	2	0	2	1	0	0	0
M. ConfortoDH	.227	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. KellyC	.272	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	5	10	5	1	9	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. ImanagaSP	5.2	5	1	1	1	3	85
P. MatonRP	0.1	0	0	0	1	0	15
J. WebbRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	14
C. ThielbarRP	1.0	1	2	2	1	2	15
D. PalenciaRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	20
Team	9.0	7	4	4	4	9	149

Team

COL

CHC

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

CHC vs COL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CHC vs COL.

3 sub-models, blended.