MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Neto grounded into double play, third to second to first, Peraza out at second. → win prob 48→62% ARI

MID 7THTied

LAA

29-43

ARI

36-35

MLB · At bat

Mid 70-00 outs

Pitcher

—

Batter

—

LastMiddle of the 7th inning

Live · model leanMid 7thPolls every 30s

54.1%

ARI wins · current

Pre-game: 60.3% ARI

LAA 2 · 2 ARI

Tied

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 7

away leadsARI leads

Key moments · live

newest first

Lead flipARITop 7th Inning · 2-2
+14pp→ 62% WP
Neto · grounded into double play, third to second to first, Peraza out at second.
SwingARIBottom 5th Inning · 2-2
+8pp→ 67% WP
Smith · singled to right.
ClutchLAATop 5th Inning · 2-2
+13pp→ 40% WP
Trout · homered to right (371 feet).
Lead flipARIBottom 1st Inning · 1-1
+9pp→ 59% WP
Moreno · reached on infield single to third, Perdomo scored.
Lead flipLAATop 1st Inning · 1-0
+11pp→ 52% WP
Adell · doubled to right, Trout scored.

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 7.63

W. Urena

4-4 · 2.44 ERA

R. Nelson

2-5 · 5.19 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

ARI spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 8.5 · +0.5

ARI no-vig %

54.1%

open 55.1% · -1.0

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ARI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.7%

ensemble · ARI favored

Elo Static
59.4%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
56.1%
P(ARI win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.6%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.39 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

48.1%

-11.3ppvs pre-game · LAA favored

Calibrated · at ~46% reads, home has won 42% (270)

Leverage

±11.9

pp · next play

peak · 90/100

Tied · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.99

CLV pp

Open price

-136

Close price

-131

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

54.1%

Market faded the model

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+13.2pp

best edge · LAA · DraftKings

LAA

★ best

+255DraftKings

edge +13.2pp · implied 26.5%

ARI

no live price

Book	LAA	ARI	Best edge
DraftKings	+255★	-360	+13.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

ARI vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 68 high confidence

Strikeouts

Reid DetmersLAA
7.0± 4.0low
Jose SorianoLAA
5.6± 1.9medium
Michael SorokaARI
5.3± 2.8low

Hits

Jo AdellLAA
1.3± 1.5high
Geraldo PerdomoARI
1.1± 0.9high
Corbin CarrollARI
1.0± 1.0high

Total bases

Corbin CarrollARI
2.1± 2.6high
Gabriel MorenoARI
1.9± 1.8high
Jo AdellLAA
1.8± 2.4high

RBIs

Denzer GuzmanLAA
1.0± 1.6low
Jose SiriLAA
0.8± 1.3high
Trey ManciniLAA
0.8± 1.1low

Earned runs

Merrill KellyARI
3.6± 3.5low
Ryne NelsonARI
3.4± 3.5low
Zac GallenARI
3.3± 1.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team rate stats

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

LAA

league avg

ARI

.709

OPS

◀

.717

.689

.319

OBP

◀

.319

.306

4.45

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.19

4.60

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.17

1.43

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.27

8.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.1

The One modelEdge

● Live

LAA

Angels

31-47

vs60.3%ARI

ARI★

Diamondbacks

38-40

LAA 39.7%win prob60.3% ARI

ARI 1486 · LAA 1444Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. NetoSS	.220	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. TroutCF	.230	3	2	2	1	1	0	1
W. MecklerLF	.297	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. AdellRF	.258	3	0	2	1	0	0	0
N. Schanuel1B	.255	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. GuzmanSS	.240	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
L. O'HoppeC	.223	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. Walton3B	.298	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
O. Peraza2B	.261	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
Team		28	2	9	2	1	0	5

Player

.220

.230

.297

.258

.255

.240

.223

.298

.261

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. UrenaSP	6.0	4	2	1	2	3	76
Team	6.0	4	2	1	2	3	76

Player

W. UrenaSP

6.0

Team

6.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. Marte2B	.252	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. PerdomoSS	.243	1	1	0	0	0	2	0
C. CarrollRF	.278	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
G. MorenoC	.265	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
L. Gurriel Jr.LF	.232	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
N. Arenado3B	.240	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. LawlarLF	.296	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. SmithDH	.129	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
T. TroyLF	.220	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		22	2	4	2	0	2	3