MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4SF

CHC

37-35

29-43

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California

40,093 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

SF spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

SF no-vig %

56.3%

open 56.3%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SF favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.6%

ensemble · SF favored

Elo Static
55.7%
P(SF win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.1%
P(SF win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
56.6%
P(SF win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.03 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

CHC

no live price

Book	CHC	SF	Best edge
DraftKings	+109	-132	+1.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

SF vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

Landen RouppSF
5.8± 2.1low
Shota ImanagaCHC
5.4± 2.8medium
Logan WebbSF
5.3± 1.8low

Hits

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
1.6± 1.4high
Jung Hoo LeeSF
1.6± 1.4high
Bryce EldridgeSF
1.4± 1.0high

Total bases

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
3.1± 3.7high
Matt ChapmanSF
2.6± 3.6high
Bryce EldridgeSF
2.4± 2.1high

RBIs

Matt ChapmanSF
1.3± 2.4high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
0.7± 1.2high
Bryce EldridgeSF
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Colin ReaCHC
3.3± 2.3medium
Edward CabreraCHC
3.2± 2.6low
Shota ImanagaCHC
3.1± 3.4medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHC

league avg

.726

OPS

.717

.725

.332

OBP

◀

.319

.309

4.58

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.11

4.23

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.52

1.25

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.40

8.0

K / 9

8.5

8.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

CHC 1 · SF 5 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SF +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1
SF	0	0	0	0	3	0	1	1	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. Crow-ArmstrongCF	.267	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
A. Bregman3B	.250	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
M. Busch1B	.253	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
I. HappLF	.224	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. ConfortoDH	.227	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
P. Ramirez2B	.219	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. KellyC	.272	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. BallesterosDH	.235	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
D. SwansonSS	.179	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team		33	1	7	0	0	0	9

Player

.267

.250

.253

.224

.227

.219

.272

.235

.179

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. RolisonRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	11
C. ReaSP	4.2	6	4	4	3	2	90
H. MilnerRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	13
E. RobertsRP	0.2	2	1	1	2	0	32
J. WebbRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	8
Team	8.0	9	5	5	5	2	154

Player

1.1

4.2

1.0

0.2

0.1

Team

8.0

154

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. Chapman3B	.261	3	2	1	2	1	2	0
L. Arraez2B	.319	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. EldridgeDH	.317	3	0	1	1	0	1	0
R. Devers1B	.235	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
C. SchmittDH	.276	3	1	2	0	0	0	1
W. AdamesSS	.229	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. LeeRF	.331	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
D. SusacC	.299	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
D. GilbertCF	.229	3	1	1	1	0	1	0
J. CoxCF	.400	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	5	9	5	1	5	2

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. WebbSP	8.0	7	1	0	0	7	106
C. KilianRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	15
Team	9.0	7	1	0	0	9	121

Team

CHC

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

SF vs CHC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SF vs CHC.

3 sub-models, blended.