Recent form
8-2
MIN +14.5 vs POR -2.4 margin
MIN brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
Portland Fire at Minnesota Lynx
POR
POR
7-8
PregameMon, 8:00 PM EDT
MIN
MIN
10-3
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
3 signals · model + marketPreview · WNBA
ortland Fire visit Minnesota Lynx Monday at 6/15 - 8:00 PM EDT. POR is 4-5 in their last 9. MIN is rolling — 6-1 in their last 7.
Vegas opened MIN as a 13.5-point favorite with the total at 169.5. MIN's moneyline implies a 90% break-even, POR the inverse.
For bettors: the MIN side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 169.5 total reads near the league average.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Updated 0s ago
Season series
Jun 16POR@MINtoday
POR@MINtodayJul 19POR@MINupcoming
POR@MINupcomingAug 13MIN@PORupcoming
MIN@PORupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
MIN -13.5
Between 10 and —
Total
169.5
Standard · +4.5 vs avg
Moneyline
POR+62514%MIN-95090%50· 6.4h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
13.5
+1.0 since open
Total
169.5
0.0 since open
Scouting report
POR @ MIN
StorylineMIN 9 spots ahead of POR in power rank.
Rest going in
PORStandard
2 days
last game Jun 13
MINStandard
2 days
last game Jun 13
Model edge vs market
Strong edgeSpread
Market
MIN -13.5
Model
MIN -51.1
Edge
+37.6 pts
Total
Market
169.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Moneyline
Market
MIN -950
Model
MIN
Edge
aligned
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
PORmetricMIN
7-8
Record
10-3
#6
Conf rank
#1
-4.7
Pt diff
+11.7
W1
Streak
L1
5-5
Last 10
8-2
40.3
Power score
91.4
#10
Power rank
#1
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Team stats
POR
Away
Stat
MIN
Home
45
FG %
50
Betting line
MIN -13.5·O/U 169.5·POR +625/MIN -950
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Scouting report · pre-game
MIN vs POR.
MIN is 8-2 recently; POR is 5-5.
75.6%
model · MIN win prob
Recent form
- MIN8–2+14.5
- POR5–5-2.4
Situational
- MIN2d rest
- POR2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. MIN has 1 straight road games; POR has 0.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Line move
open -700→-950toward MIN
The market has moved 3pp toward the home side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
77.5%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
77.9%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
80.8%
P(MIN win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
79.9%
P(MIN win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
1.20 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
92% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
-2.77
CLV pp · steam
Open price
+500
Close price
+625
Open no-vig
16.0%
Close no-vig
13.2%
Market faded the model hard
Line shopping · 1 book
Where to bet this game.
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
+11.2pp
best edge · POR · DraftKings
POR
★ best+625DraftKings
edge +11.2pp · implied 13.2%
MIN
no live price
| Book | POR | MIN | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +625★ | -950 | +11.2 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.
Player projections
MIN vs POR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Olivia MilesMIN18.4± 6.7medium
- Natasha HowardMIN17.7± 7.9low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN16.6± 6.9medium
Rebounds
- Natasha HowardMIN7.4± 4.2low
- Nia CoffeyMIN5.6± 2.4medium
- Courtney WilliamsMIN5.5± 2.1medium
Assists
- Carla LeitePOR5.8± 3.6medium
- Olivia MilesMIN5.5± 3.0medium
- Courtney WilliamsMIN3.9± 2.1medium
Blocks
- Emily EngstlerPOR2.2± 1.3medium
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.1± 1.3medium
- Liatu KingMIN0.8± 1.6low
Steals
- Natasha HowardMIN1.9± 2.1low
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.7± 1.7low
- Bridget CarletonPOR1.6± 1.1medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
POR
league avg
MIN
45.2%
FG%
44.4
▶50.5%
33.7%
3PT %
33.0
▶39.1%
82.0
PPG
85.4
▶91.5
19.7
Assists / G
18.0
▶21.5
14.5
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶13.8