Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in POR at MIN?

The model favors POR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+33MIN

POR

7-9

74107

MIN

11-3

WNBAMon, Jun 15FinalSeriesMIN leads series 2-0VegasMIN -14.5

POR · top performer

Emily Engstler

F · #21

8.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIN · top performer

Nia Coffey

F · #12

20.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPOR ↔ MIN

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. CarletonF · #6	26	3	1-9	0-4	1-2	-31	1	2
E. EngstlerF · #21	20	9	4-7	1-1	—	-14	2	3
GustafsonC · #17	17	9	4-10	1-2	—	-19	3	0
S. BarkerG · #3	25	8	3-5	2-4	—	-16	2	2
C. LeiteG · #0	19	10	3-8	1-3	3-4	-20	2	3
Bench
F. BuhnerF · #20	20	10	3-9	0-4	4-5	-19	2	1
N. PuochF · #13	21	3	1-3	1-3	—	-10	3	2
L. GeiselsoderC · #15	15	9	3-5	3-4	—	-12	4	0
S. WilliamsC · #25	13	2	1-2	—	—	-7	2	1
H. WinterburnG · #77	8	2	1-4	0-3	—	-9	0	2
T. OblakG · #7	17	9	4-7	1-2	—	-8	6	5
Team		74	28-69	10-30	8-11		27	21
DNP: K. Samuelson

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. HowardF · #1	26	18	6-11	—	6-11	+18	6	1
N. CoffeyF · #12	21	15	6-9	3-4	0-2	+16	5	4
K. McBrideG · #21	25	14	5-14	1-4	3-3	+27	6	4
C. WilliamsG · #10	24	16	7-10	2-3	—	+26	5	4
O. MilesG · #5	23	12	6-8	0-2	—	+21	4	5
Bench
A. DelaereF · #8	29	6	2-6	2-5	—	+26	1	7
A. KosuF · #7	19	11	4-8	1-2	2-2	+11	5	3
T. McCowanC · #15	8	0	0-2	—	0-2	+10	4	1
M. CaldwellG · #3	15	11	4-6	1-2	2-2	+6	4	1
E. HamzovaG · #11	10	4	2-3	0-1	—	+4	0	1
Team		107	42-77	10-23	13-22		40	31
DNP: N. Collier, D. Juhasz, E. Cechova

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

POR

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

28-69

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

42-77

FG %

10-30

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-23

8-11

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

13-22

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MIN leads series 2-0

Jun 16

POR74@

MIN107today

Jul 19

POR93@

MIN101

Aug 13

MIN@

PORupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -14.5

Between 10 and —

Total

169.5

Standard · +4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

POR+70013%

MIN-110092%

50· 6.4h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -14.5↗SpreadBet MIN -14.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

14.5

+1.0 since open

Total

169.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat POR 107-74. N. Coffey led with 15 PTS, 5 REB, 4 AST. MIN outscored the other side 35-21 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIN vs POR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PORstarters 53% of pts

Starters(5)

39 PTS · 10 REB · 10 AST

GS 16

Bench(6)

35 PTS · 17 REB · 11 AST

GS 24

MINstarters 70% of pts

Starters(5)

75 PTS · 26 REB · 18 AST

GS 70

Bench(5)

32 PTS · 14 REB · 13 AST

GS 35

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
POR	21	19	19	15	74
MIN	35	25	25	22	107

Period scoring

POR won 0 · MIN won 4

Geiselsoder 6

McBride 10

Oblak 5

Williams 7

Engstler 4

Miles 22

Buhner 4

Miles 12

POR

MIN

Shooting comparison

POR

MIN

41%

28-69

55%

42-77

33%

10-30

3PT

43%

10-23

73%

8-11

59%

13-22

Play-by-play · 422 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
POR 74·MIN 107
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
POR 74·MIN 107
Q4·23.0
Serah Williams makes layup (Holly Winterburn assists)
· ·
POR 74·MIN 107
Q4·26.9
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu makes 11-foot jumper
POR 72·MIN 107
Q4·28.4
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu offensive rebound
POR 72·MIN 105
Q4·29.6
Teaira McCowan misses two point shot
POR 72·MIN 105
Q4·30.6
Teaira McCowan offensive rebound
POR 72·MIN 105
Q4·33.0
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu misses 24-foot three point jumper
POR 72·MIN 105
Q4·44.2
Frieda Buhner makes free throw 2 of 2
POR 72·MIN 105
Q4·44.2
Fire offensive team rebound
POR 71·MIN 105
Q4·44.2
Frieda Buhner misses free throw 1 of 2
POR 71·MIN 105
Q4·44.2
Antonia Delaere personal foul
POR 71·MIN 105
Q4·45.0
Fire offensive team rebound
POR 71·MIN 105
Q4·45.1
Teaira McCowan blocks Frieda Buhner 's 5-foot layup
·
POR 71·MIN 105
Q4·52.1
Nyadiew Puoch offensive rebound
POR 71·MIN 105
Q4·54.5
Frieda Buhner misses 23-foot three point jumper
POR 71·MIN 105
Q4·1:10
Teaira McCowan personal foul
POR 71·MIN 105
Q4·1:10
Luisa Geiselsoder defensive rebound
POR 71·MIN 105
Q4·1:12
Maya Caldwell misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
POR 71·MIN 105
Q4·1:21
Teaira McCowan defensive rebound
POR 71·MIN 105
Q4·1:25
Holly Winterburn misses 23-foot three point jumper
POR 71·MIN 105
Q4·1:34
Frieda Buhner offensive rebound
POR 71·MIN 105
Q4·1:39
Holly Winterburn misses 25-foot three point jumper
POR 71·MIN 105
Q4·2:00
Maya Caldwell makes free throw 2 of 2
POR 71·MIN 105
Q4·2:00
Maya Caldwell makes free throw 1 of 2
POR 71·MIN 104
Q4·2:00
Nyadiew Puoch shooting foul
POR 71·MIN 103
Q4·2:02
Antonia Delaere defensive rebound
POR 71·MIN 103
Q4·2:05
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu blocks Frieda Buhner 's 3-foot driving floating jump shot
·
POR 71·MIN 103
Q4·2:25
Maya Caldwell makes 2-foot layup (Teaira McCowan assists)
·
POR 71·MIN 103
Q4·2:33
Holly Winterburn personal foul
POR 71·MIN 101

Betting line

MIN -14.5·O/U 169.5·POR +700/MIN -1100

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

innesota Lynx held off Portland Fire, 107–74. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

MIN -14.5 cashed (won by 33). Total cleared the 169.5 OVER by 11.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

POR

MIN

eFG%

shooting

47.8%

61.0%

TOV%

ball control

22.1%

13.0%

OREB%

offensive glass

29.4%

48.5%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

11.6%

16.9%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Natasha HowardMIN · F
ORB%.15099
Megan DiLeoPOR · C
TS%.67497
Carla LeitePOR · G
USG%.28893
Nia CoffeyMIN · F
eFG%.60991
Kayla McBrideMIN · G
AST/TO2.391

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

77.5%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
81.2%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
78.4%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
79.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.20 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-2.77

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+500

Close price

+625

Open no-vig

16.0%

Close no-vig

13.2%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in POR at MIN?: The model favors POR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+8.5pp

best edge · POR · DraftKings

POR

★ best

+700DraftKings

edge +8.5pp · implied 12.0%

MIN

no live price

Book	POR	MIN	Best edge
DraftKings	+700★	-1100	+8.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

MIN vs POR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 90 high confidence

Points

Kayla McBrideMIN
21.8± 7.0high
Olivia MilesMIN
19.2± 7.9high
Carla LeitePOR
16.3± 6.3high

Rebounds

Natasha HowardMIN
7.5± 2.9high
Emily EngstlerPOR
6.3± 3.3high
Olivia MilesMIN
5.2± 2.8high

Assists

Carla LeitePOR
6.2± 2.8high
Olivia MilesMIN
6.0± 2.9high
Courtney WilliamsMIN
4.5± 2.1high

Blocks

Emily EngstlerPOR
1.3± 1.0high
Nia CoffeyMIN
1.1± 1.1high
Dorka JuhaszMIN
1.0± 0.3low

Steals

Kayla McBrideMIN
1.9± 1.4high
Natasha HowardMIN
1.7± 1.2high
Bridget CarletonPOR
1.7± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

On the call · WNBA

3 officials

Referee

Angel Kent

Referee

Gina Cross

Referee

Clare Simmons

Per-official season stats (foul rate, strike-zone tendency) activate with the season-stats rollup. Bookmark the names for now.

Team pages

Portland FireMinnesota Lynx

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop