MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

McNeil homered to right (359 feet), Butler scored. → win prob 83→93% ATH

TOP 6TH+5ATH

PIT

36-36

ATH

35-36

MLB · At bat

Top 61-10 outs

Pitcher· ATH

J.T. Ginn

5.0 IP, 3 K, 0 ER

Batter· PIT

N. Gonzales

0-2

LastPitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

Live · model leanTop 6thPolls every 30s

73.7%

ATH wins · current

Pre-game: 52.2% ATH

PIT 1 · 6 ATH

ATH +5

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 6

away leadsATH leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingATHBottom 4th Inning · 1-3
+12pp→ 84% WP
Butler · reached on infield single to first.
SwingATHBottom 2nd Inning · 0-3
+12pp→ 87% WP
Kurtz · homered to left center (407 feet), McNeil scored.
SwingPITBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+6pp→ 33% WP
Cortes · struck out swinging.

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 7.88

J. Jones

1-0 · 4.73 ERA

J.T. Ginn

4-3 · 3.15 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

ATH spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 10.5

open O/U 10.5

ATH no-vig %

54.1%

open 54.2% · -0.1

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.5%

ensemble · ATH favored

Elo Static
52.9%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.8%
P(ATH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
54.3%
P(ATH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.80 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

99.0%

+46.1ppvs pre-game · ATH favored

Leverage

±2.4

pp · next play

low · 3/100

Mostly decided · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+20.7pp

best edge · PIT · DraftKings

PIT

★ best

+247DraftKings

edge +20.7pp · implied 27.1%

ATH

no live price

Book	PIT	ATH	Best edge
DraftKings	+247★	-346	+20.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

ATH vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.8medium
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.4± 2.9low
J.T. GinnATH
5.0± 2.9medium

Hits

Shea LangeliersATH
1.2± 0.8high
Zack GelofATH
1.2± 0.5high
Jake MangumPIT
1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

Shea LangeliersATH
2.5± 2.5high
Nick KurtzATH
2.3± 2.9high
Tyler SoderstromATH
2.3± 3.0high

RBIs

Tyler SoderstromATH
0.9± 1.3high
Nick KurtzATH
0.8± 1.1high
Max MuncyATH
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Luis MoralesATH
5.0± 0.3low
Mitch KellerPIT
3.5± 3.0low
Jeffrey SpringsATH
3.2± 1.8medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team rate stats

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PIT

league avg

ATH

.735

OPS

.717

▶

.751

.334

OBP

.319

.331

4.93

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.53

4.27

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.81

1.31

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.43

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.2

The One modelTossup

● Live

PIT

Pirates

36-41

vs52.2%ATH

ATH★

Athletics

35-43

PIT 47.8%win prob52.2% ATH

ATH 1470 · PIT 1473Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. Horwitz1B	.277	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Lowe2B	.241	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. ReynoldsLF	.271	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
R. O'HearnRF	.276	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
N. Gonzales3B	.298	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
E. RodriguezC	.241	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
T. CallihanLF	.320	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. MangumLF	.305	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
E. ValdezOF	.095	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		20	1	5	1	0	2	3

Player

.277

.241

.271

.276

.298

.241

.320

.305

.095

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. JonesSP	4.0	8	5	5	1	4	75
C. MlodzinskiSP	1.0	3	1	1	0	1	22
Team	5.0	11	6	6	1	5	97

Player

J. JonesSP

4.0

C. MlodzinskiSP

1.0

Team

5.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. Kurtz1B	.290	3	1	2	2	1	0	0
S. LangeliersC	.283	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
T. SoderstromLF	.246	3	1	2	0	0	0	1
J. WilsonSS	.287	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. CortesRF	.298	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
Z. Gelof3B	.277	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
L. ButlerRF	.189	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
H. BolteCF	.319	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. McNeil2B	.236	2	2	2	3	1	0	0
Team		25	6	11	6	2	1	5