Starter edge
4.18 ERA
MacKenzie Gore vs Mike Paredes - 4.35 ERA
Gore owns the sharper run-prevention profile, giving TEX cleaner opening script tonight.
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Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers
MIN
MIN
33-40
PregameMon, 8:05 PM EDT
TEX
TEX
35-36
Probable starters
The mound matchup
Combined ERA 8.53
M. Paredes
0-0 · 4.35 ERA
vs
M. Gore
4-5 · 4.18 ERA
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketGlobe Life Field · Arlington, Texas
Line movement
200 snapshots
TEX spread
-1.5
open -1.5
Total
O/U 8.0
open O/U 8.0
TEX no-vig %
60.0%
open 60.2% · -0.2
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TEX favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
M
Mike Paredes
RP · #53
0-0
W-L
4.35
ERA
1.06
WHIP
8
K
10.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@DET-3.0 IP1 ER4 K
vsKC-3.2 IP3 ER1 K
@PIT-3.2 IP1 ER3 K
Home starter
MacKenzie Gore
SP · #1
4-5
W-L
4.18
ERA
1.35
WHIP
76
K
71.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@KC-5.0 IP2 ER6 K
@STLL(4-5)4.2 IP4 ER5 K
vsKCW(4-4)6.1 IP0 ER3 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 8.5
Money+130 / -157
Model edge
Win prob41% / 59%
LeanHome · 9pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
No prior meetings logged this season yet.
Place a bet
Take TEX on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Projected lineups
Top of the order, top of mind.
Posted by ESPN ~30 minutes before first pitch.
MIN
- 1.A. MartinRF
- 2.B. BuxtonCF
- 3.K. Clemens1B
- 4.R. Lewis3B
- 5.J. BellDH
- 6.K. FedkoLF
- 7.L. Keaschall2B
- 8.R. KreidlerSS
- 9.A. JacksonC
TEX
- 1.J. PedersonDH
- 2.J. Jung3B
- 3.W. LangfordLF
- 4.B. NimmoRF
- 5.J. Burger1B
- 6.A. OsunaCF
- 7.C. Freeman2B
- 8.N. LopezSS
- 9.E. DiazC
Scouting report · pre-game
TEX vs MIN.
TEX is 5-5 recently; MIN is 4-6.
59.0%
model · TEX win prob
Recent form
- TEX5–5-0.5
- MIN4–6-1.8
Situational
- TEX1d restB2B
- MIN1d restB2B
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. TEX has 6 straight road games; MIN has 0.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.1pp
Players to watch
- Byron BuxtonMIN2.9total bases · ±2.8
Byron Buxton · 2.9 TB · last-10 3.2 vs season 2.5.
- Kody ClemensMIN2.4total bases · ±2.2
Kody Clemens · 2.4 TB · last-10 2.8 vs season 1.7.
- Royce LewisMIN1.9total bases · ±2.1
Royce Lewis · 1.9 TB · last-10 2.3 vs season 1.3.
Line move
open -170→-168toward MIN
The market has moved 0.3pp toward the away side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
59.1%
ensemble · TEX favored
Elo Static
58.4%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
58.6%
P(TEX win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.6%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.09 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
99% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
TEX vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
127
projections · 83 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Jacob deGromTEX6.4± 3.2low
- Joe RyanMIN6.3± 2.9medium
- Taj BradleyMIN5.9± 2.4low
Hits
- Byron BuxtonMIN1.3± 1.2high
- Cody FreemanTEX1.3± 0.8low
- Josh JungTEX1.2± 0.6high
Total bases
- Byron BuxtonMIN2.9± 2.8high
- Kody ClemensMIN2.4± 2.2high
- Royce LewisMIN1.9± 2.1high
RBIs
- Byron BuxtonMIN0.7± 0.9high
- Josh BellMIN0.7± 0.9high
- Kody ClemensMIN0.6± 1.1high
Earned runs
- Zebby MatthewsMIN3.5± 3.9low
- Jack LeiterTEX3.1± 2.7low
- Connor PrielippMIN2.9± 2.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
MIN
league avg
TEX
.718
OPS
◀
.717
.701
.318
OBP
.319
.317
4.63
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.01
4.86
Team ERA
4.18
▶3.79
1.39
WHIP
1.31
▶1.23
8.3
K / 9
8.5
▶8.5
The One modelEdge
Mon, Jun 15MIN
Twins
41-43
vs59.0%TEX
TEX★
Rangers
38-39
MIN 41.0%win prob59.0% TEX
TEX 1500 · MIN 1465Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
