MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Goodman homered to left (453 feet). → win prob 70→80% COL

TOP 5TH+3COL

COL

26-45

ATH

35-35

MLB · At bat

Top 52-21 out

Pitcher· ATH

L. Medina

0.1 IP, 1 ER

Batter· COL

C. Carrigg

2-2

LastPitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

Live · model leanTop 5thPolls every 30s

58.2%

COL wins · current

Pre-game: 69.8% ATH

COL 9 · 6 ATH

COL +3

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 5

away leadsATH leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingCOLTop 4th Inning · 8-5
+15pp→ 79% WP
Johnston · homered to right, Karros scored.
Lead flipATHBottom 2nd Inning · 5-5
+12pp→ 62% WP
Kurtz · doubled to center, Williams scored.
Lead flipCOLTop 2nd Inning · 5-4
+19pp→ 53% WP
Castro · homered to left center, Karros scored.
Lead flipATHBottom 1st Inning · 2-1
+15pp→ 64% WP
Soderstrom · doubled to right, Butler scored, Kurtz to third.
Lead flipCOLTop 1st Inning · 2-0
+18pp→ 62% WP
Goodman · homered to center (421 feet), Freeman scored.

Las Vegas Ballpark · Las Vegas, Nevada

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 8.76

T. Sugano

6-4 · 4.08 ERA

J. Springs

3-6 · 4.68 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

ATH spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 14.0

open O/U 14.0

ATH no-vig %

61.6%

open 61.6%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

69.5%

ensemble · ATH favored

Elo Static
67.1%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
66.4%
P(ATH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
67.2%
P(ATH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.35 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

1.4%

-65.7ppvs pre-game · COL favored

Leverage

±2.5

pp · next play

low · 4/100

Mostly decided · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-181

Close price

-181

Open no-vig

61.6%

Close no-vig

61.6%

Line barely moved

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+6.2pp

best edge · ATH · DraftKings

COL

no live price

ATH

★ best

-198DraftKings

edge +6.2pp · implied 63.6%

Book	COL	ATH	Best edge
DraftKings	+163	-198★	+6.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

ATH vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

J.T. GinnATH
5.0± 2.9medium
Gage JumpATH
4.8± 1.7low
Jeffrey SpringsATH
4.4± 2.1low

Hits

Shea LangeliersATH
1.2± 0.8high
Troy JohnstonCOL
1.2± 1.0high
Jacob WilsonATH
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Shea LangeliersATH
2.5± 2.5high
Cole CarriggCOL
2.4± 3.1low
Nick KurtzATH
2.3± 3.0high

RBIs

Tyler SoderstromATH
0.9± 1.3high
Nick KurtzATH
0.8± 1.0high
Cole CarriggCOL
0.8± 1.8low

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
4.5± 3.2low
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.9± 2.8medium
Jeffrey SpringsATH
3.2± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team rate stats

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

COL

league avg

ATH

.720

OPS

.716

▶

.743

.319

OBP

.319

▶

.329

4.36

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.45

5.64

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.68

1.52

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.41

7.4

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.3

The One model★ Lock

● Live

COL

Rockies

27-53

vs69.8%ATH

ATH★

Athletics

35-42

COL 30.2%win prob69.8% ATH

ATH 1478 · COL 1378Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
W. Castro2B	.267	3	1	1	2	1	0	1
T. FreemanRF	.267	3	1	0	0	0	0	1
T. Rumfield1B	.275	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. GoodmanC	.241	3	2	2	3	2	0	0
E. TovarSS	.213	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. CarriggOF	.286	2	2	2	0	0	0	0
K. Karros3B	.241	2	2	2	1	0	0	0
T. JohnstonRF	.317	2	1	1	3	1	0	0
B. FulfordC	.207	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team		23	9	9	9	4	0	5

Player

AVG

RBI

.267

.267

.275

.241

.213

.286

.241

.317

.207

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
T. SuganoSP	4.0	7	6	6	2	2	86
Team	4.0	7	6	6	2	2	86

Player

T. SuganoSP

4.0

Team

4.0

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
L. ButlerRF	.176	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
N. Kurtz1B	.287	2	1	1	2	0	1	0
T. SoderstromLF	.238	3	1	1	1	0	0	0
C. CortesRF	.309	2	1	1	2	0	0	0
Z. Gelof3B	.268	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. HeimC	.236	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. Muncy3B	.231	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
J. McNeil2B	.230	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
A. WilliamsSS	.316	2	1	2	0	0	0	0
Team		18	6	7	6	0	2	2