Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LV at DAL?

The model favors LV, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+30DAL

10-4

6696

DAL

9-5

WNBAMon, Jun 15FinalSeriesDAL wins series 2-1VegasLV -2.5

LV · top performer

Jewell Loyd

G · #24

13.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DAL · top performer

Jessica Shepard

F · #32

21.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowLV ↔ DAL

Biggest swing: 7pp · 2nd Quarter · 9:35

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
S. TalbotF · #7	20	4	1-2	0-1	2-2	-31	4	3
N. SmithF · #3	23	9	4-7	—	1-2	-18	6	0
A. WilsonC · #22	26	18	8-15	0-2	2-3	-18	5	2
C. GrayG · #12	29	0	0-5	0-1	—	-22	4	9
J. YoungG · #0	24	6	3-13	0-4	—	-17	4	5
Bench
C. Parker-TyusF · #32	18	4	1-5	0-1	2-2	-4	5	3
B. TurnerF · #21	11	2	1-1	—	—	-20	0	0
K. BellF · #1	18	2	1-6	0-3	—	-3	1	2
J. LoydG · #24	31	21	8-14	5-9	—	-17	2	0
Team		66	27-68	5-21	7-9		31	24
DNP: J. Barker

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ShepardF · #32	31	15	4-6	—	7-10	+24	15	9
A. KuierF · #34	27	7	3-9	1-3	—	+26	4	0
A. OgunbowaleG · #24	30	22	6-16	5-11	5-6	+25	4	7
P. BueckersG · #5	24	10	4-11	2-5	—	+21	5	7
A. FuddG · #35	28	19	8-9	1-2	2-2	+22	0	1
Bench
A. ClarkF · #7	5	0	0-2	0-1	—	+6	1	0
A. SmithF · #8	9	4	2-3	0-1	—	-2	1	0
M. SiegristF · #20	9	5	2-2	1-1	—	+6	1	0
L. YueruC · #28	4	0	0-3	0-2	—	+6	4	1
S. SuttonG · #0	21	4	2-5	0-2	—	+8	2	4
A. JamesG · #10	12	10	4-5	—	2-3	+8	4	1
Team		96	35-71	10-28	16-21		41	30

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

27-68

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

35-71

FG %

5-21

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-28

7-9

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

16-21

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

DAL wins series 2-1

May 29

LV87@

DAL95

Jun 16

LV66@

DAL96today

Jun 26

DAL84@

LV99

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LV -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

177.5

High-scoring · +12.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LV-15561%

DAL+13043%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LV -2.5↗SpreadBet LV -2.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

177.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat LV 96-66. J. Shepard led with 15 PTS, 15 REB, 9 AST. DAL outscored the other side 27-17 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DAL vs LV

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LVstarters 56% of pts

Starters(5)

37 PTS · 23 REB · 19 AST

GS 24

Bench(4)

29 PTS · 8 REB · 5 AST

GS 19

DALstarters 76% of pts

Starters(5)

73 PTS · 28 REB · 24 AST

GS 71

Bench(6)

23 PTS · 13 REB · 6 AST

GS 24

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DAL1st Quarter · 5:00 · 11-17

+7pp→ 61% WP

Awak Kuier · makes 28-foot three point jumper (Paige Bueckers assists)

LV1st Quarter · 4:26 · 11-19

+6pp→ 34% WP

Alanna Smith · enters the game for Arike Ogunbowale

DAL2nd Quarter · 9:35 · 20-29

+7pp→ 73% WP

Kierstan Bell · misses 22-foot fade away jump shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
LV	20	17	16	13	66
DAL	29	27	18	22	96

Period scoring

LV won 0 · DAL won 4

Wilson 11

Shepard 10

Loyd 12

Gray 10

Smith 4

Ogunbowale 8

Loyd 4

James 7

DAL

Shooting comparison

DAL

40%

27-68

49%

35-71

24%

5-21

3PT

36%

10-28

78%

7-9

76%

16-21

Play-by-play · 365 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
LV 66·DAL 96
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LV 66·DAL 96
Q4·18.5
Li Yueru defensive rebound
LV 66·DAL 96
Q4·21.7
Kierstan Bell misses 24-foot three point jumper
LV 66·DAL 96
Q4·23.3
Stephanie Talbot offensive rebound
LV 66·DAL 96
Q4·26.5
Jewell Loyd misses 23-foot three point jumper
LV 66·DAL 96
Q4·36.1
Aziaha James makes free throw 1 of 1
LV 66·DAL 96
Q4·36.1
Kierstan Bell shooting foul
LV 66·DAL 95
Q4·36.1
Aziaha James makes two point shot
LV 66·DAL 95
Q4·36.1
Aziaha James offensive rebound
LV 66·DAL 93
Q4·38.7
Li Yueru misses 24-foot three point jumper
LV 66·DAL 93
Q4·48.1
Stephanie Talbot makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 66·DAL 93
Q4·48.1
Stephanie Talbot makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 65·DAL 93
Q4·48.1
Alysha Clark shooting foul
LV 64·DAL 93
Q4·55.6
Aziaha James makes 5-foot driving floating jump shot (Sug Sutton assists)
·
LV 64·DAL 93
Q4·1:08
Brianna Turner makes 5-foot layup (Stephanie Talbot assists)
·
LV 64·DAL 91
Q4·1:23
Maddy Siegrist makes 3-foot layup (Sug Sutton assists)
·
LV 62·DAL 91
Q4·1:29
Li Yueru defensive rebound
LV 62·DAL 89
Q4·1:33
Kierstan Bell misses 7-foot two point shot
LV 62·DAL 89
Q4·1:45
Sug Sutton makes 9-foot pullup jump shot
LV 62·DAL 89
Q4·2:05
Li Yueru defensive rebound
LV 62·DAL 87
Q4·2:08
Cheyenne Parker-Tyus misses 11-foot pullup jump shot
LV 62·DAL 87
Q4·2:17
Stephanie Talbot offensive rebound
LV 62·DAL 87
Q4·2:19
Kierstan Bell misses running pullup jump shot
LV 62·DAL 87
Q4·2:24
Stephanie Talbot defensive rebound
LV 62·DAL 87
Q4·2:27
Li Yueru misses 22-foot three point jumper
LV 62·DAL 87
Q4·2:40
Wings Full timeout
LV 62·DAL 86
Q4·2:40
Stephanie Talbot out of bounds bad pass turnover
LV 62·DAL 86
Q4·2:53
Sug Sutton makes driving layup (Li Yueru assists)
·
LV 62·DAL 86
Q4·3:11
Wings defensive team rebound
LV 62·DAL 84

Betting line

LV -2.5·O/U 177.5·LV -155/DAL +130

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

allas Wings held off Las Vegas Aces, 96–66. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

DAL +2.5 cashed (LV lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 177.5 by 15.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

DAL

eFG%

shooting

43.4%

56.3%

TOV%

ball control

16.3%

8.0%

OREB%

offensive glass

17.5%

25.0%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

10.3%

22.5%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

NaLyssa SmithLV · F
eFG%.69599+
A'ja WilsonLV · C
USG%.32399+
Jessica ShepardDAL · F
DRB%.32899
Jackie YoungLV · G
AST/TO3.396
Paige BueckersDAL · G
AST/TO2.893

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

19.1%

ensemble · LV favored

Elo Static
33.3%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
30.2%
P(DAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
34.7%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.88 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-142

Close price

-142

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

56.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LV at DAL?: The model favors LV, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+19.9pp

best edge · LV · DraftKings

★ best

-170DraftKings

edge +19.9pp · implied 60.4%

DAL

no live price

Book	LV	DAL	Best edge
DraftKings	-170★	+142	+19.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

DAL vs LV.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 100 high confidence

Points

A'ja WilsonLV
25.4± 8.1high
Paige BueckersDAL
21.6± 6.0high
Jackie YoungLV
17.6± 8.4high

Rebounds

Jessica ShepardDAL
12.2± 4.3high
A'ja WilsonLV
9.7± 4.0high
NaLyssa SmithLV
5.7± 3.4high

Assists

Chelsea GrayLV
7.0± 2.0high
Paige BueckersDAL
6.3± 1.9high
Jackie YoungLV
6.1± 3.4high

Blocks

A'ja WilsonLV
1.7± 1.4high
Awak KuierDAL
1.2± 1.5high
Azzi FuddDAL
0.6± 0.5high

Steals

Azzi FuddDAL
1.8± 1.3high
A'ja WilsonLV
1.7± 1.5high
Jewell LoydLV
1.5± 1.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

On the call · WNBA

3 officials

Referee

Tim Greene

Referee

Ryan Sassano

Referee

Blanca Burns

Per-official season stats (foul rate, strike-zone tendency) activate with the season-stats rollup. Bookmark the names for now.

Team pages

Las Vegas AcesDallas Wings

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop