MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+7PHI

MIA

36-37

PHI

39-33

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

39,241 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

PHI spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

PHI no-vig %

65.5%

open 64.5% · +1.0

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PHI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.3%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
55.7%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
60.2%
P(PHI win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
55.2%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.24 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.01

CLV pp

Open price

+169

Close price

+177

Open no-vig

35.5%

Close no-vig

34.5%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+33.0pp

best edge · MIA · DraftKings

MIA

★ best

+730DraftKings

edge +33.0pp · implied 11.3%

PHI

no live price

Book	MIA	PHI	Best edge
DraftKings	+730★	-1700	+33.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

PHI vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 98 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cristopher SanchezPHI
7.7± 3.4medium
Max MeyerMIA
6.6± 1.8medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
6.0± 3.3low

Hits

Otto LopezMIA
1.5± 0.8high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
1.2± 1.3high
Brandon MarshPHI
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

Heriberto HernandezMIA
2.0± 2.4high
Otto LopezMIA
2.0± 1.7high
Brandon MarshPHI
2.0± 2.3high

RBIs

Alec BohmPHI
0.8± 1.1high
Heriberto HernandezMIA
0.7± 1.0high
Joe MackMIA
0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

Andrew PainterPHI
3.7± 2.9low
Aaron NolaPHI
3.5± 2.6low
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.3± 3.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIA

league avg

PHI

.702

OPS

◀

.717

.684

.322

OBP

◀

.319

.297

4.25

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.06

4.11

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.05

1.26

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.30

8.8

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

MIA 0 · PHI 7 (by 7)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIA	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
PHI	0	1	2	0	2	0	0	2	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. HicksC	.281	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
O. LopezSS	.339	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
K. StowersLF	.211	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
X. Edwards2B	.296	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
H. HernandezLF	.237	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
O. CaissieRF	.209	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. MarseeCF	.201	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. MackC	.247	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. Sanoja3B	.248	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. GibsonRP	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. RuizRF	.220	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. KempnerRP	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. Jimenez3B	.188	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Norby1B	.211	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		32	0	5	0	0	3	13

Player

.281

.339

.211

.296

.237

.209

.201

.247

.248

.000

.220

.000

.188

.211

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. GustoSP	4.2	8	5	5	3	1	91
W. KempnerRP	2.1	0	0	0	0	2	33
C. GibsonRP	1.0	2	2	2	1	1	29
Team	8.0	10	7	7	4	4	153

Player

R. GustoSP

4.2

W. KempnerRP

2.1

C. GibsonRP

1.0

Team

8.0

153

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. SchwarberDH	.247	4	0	1	0	0	1	2
T. TurnerSS	.216	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Harper1B	.253	3	0	0	1	0	1	0
B. MarshLF	.324	5	1	2	0	0	0	2
B. Stott2B	.230	2	2	0	0	0	2	0
J.T. RealmutoC	.211	4	1	1	2	1	0	0
G. Rincones Jr.RF	.143	4	1	1	2	1	0	0
J. CrawfordCF	.241	4	1	3	1	0	0	0
E. Sosa2B	.231	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
A. Bohm3B	.219	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
D. HillRF	.216	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	7	10	7	2	4	4

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. WheelerSP	6.0	2	0	0	3	9	97
T. MayzaRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	17
J. BowlanRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	20
C. ShugartRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	12
Team	9.0	5	0	0	3	13	146

Team

MIA

PHI

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

PHI vs MIA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PHI vs MIA.

3 sub-models, blended.